494
FXUS64 KMOB 251720
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1220 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

  - The heat will continue to build this weekend and into early
    and middle parts of the upcoming week with some locations
    nearing or breaking daily record highs. Heat Advisories or
    Excessive Heat Warnings will likely be necessary for portions
    of the area.

  - Daily, mainly afternoon and evening scattered t-storm chances
    increases middle to later parts of the upcoming week, but will
    still remain hot.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Forecast remains on track with no changes necessary this morning.
07/mb

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Starting things off with tonight - looking rather nice and calm
across the area. Not seeing as strong of an indication for patchy
fog this morning like we saw yesterday morning looking at the
REFS fog probs, but a few patchy areas where soils are still moist
from recent days rain might be possible again. Overall, little
impact but will continue to monitor.

Otherwise, the forecast remains on track today with no major
adjustments needed. Still seeing the same corridor of enhanced PW
to the north trying to nudge south. This, coupled with heights
breaking down some as the ridge retrogrades west will introduce a
small uptick in isolated shower/storm coverage mainly for inland
areas this afternoon. Added in a bit more uniform 15% min
limitation to PoPs in this area where REFS/HRRR cluster is
greatest in support.

Sunday through mid-week, want to spend a bit more time talking
temperatures as this is becoming a key message for potential
upcoming impacts for the area. We heat up, simply said, with NBM
probs of reaching at or above 100F taps upwards of 80-90% for
portions of the area, especially Mon-Wed. Main key player here is
an anomalously strong ridge takes shape over the four-corners
region, dominating a large portion of the US. Took a minute to
observe soundings in this type of anomalous dynamic setup, which
reveals a few key items of discussion. First of all, confidence
for near to surpassing record highs for some climate sites
continues to grow, with many areas possibly surpassing 100,
especially western areas. Additionally, it`s common in this kind
of extreme heat to see a very deep, well-mixed daily afternoon
PBL. Taking a look at some long-range guidance ML LCL numbers,
comparing to nearby KLIX Sounding Climatology reveals an average
(and using this loosely as these are 00Z soundings) around
75th-90th percentile according to daily max, or roughly
1400-1800m+ each day. What does this mean? The potential for
stronger mixing than blended guidance currently presents, and
lower afternoon dewpoints resulting in lower forecast max heat
indices. Did apply a small edit of more meteorologically realistic
drop in Tds from 18-23Z Sun-Tue to at least get on board with
this idea for now. But want to emphasize, temperatures, themselves
will be impactful for those outdoors, and will continue to
strongly message heat precautions for the next few days. Will
narrow down heat headlines as we near closer.

Otherwise, as previously mentioned, our proximity on the eastern
edge of the ridge will continue to promote northerly upper-level
flow through next week, with several PVA/energy impulses riding
south from the upper/mid MS valley region/Ohio Valley into the SE.
Hard to narrow down specifics, but this type of flow regime
typically supports daily clusters/MCS`s to our north and could
graze or near closer to our area primarily middle to later parts
of the week. Whether it comes in the form of just an enhancement
of scattered showers primarily each afternoon/evening OR an actual
complex makes it our way, that remains to be seen and will be
better, more confidently identified in short-term CAM windows.
Main message for now is shower/storm chances slowly uptick mid to
late week, perhaps even into later next weekend. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Winds variable in
direction 10 knots or less overnight shifting to onshore during
the afternoon. /16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Nearby high pressure will continue to promote mainly light winds and
calm waves/seas today. Winds will become more established Sunday
through mid-week out of the west, averaging around 10-15 knots at
times but otherwise waves will remain calm/light through the
forecast period. KLG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      97  75  96  77 /  10   0  20  10
Pensacola   95  78  96  79 /  10   0  30  10
Destin      93  80  91  81 /  10   0  20  10
Evergreen   95  74  93  75 /  10   0  30  10
Waynesboro  96  75  95  76 /  10  10  30  10
Camden      92  75  91  75 /  10  20  40  20
Crestview   97  75  96  76 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$