103
FXUS64 KMOB 071738
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

 - Strong storms are possible this afternoon with strong, locally
   damaging microburst winds being the main threat.

 - Moderate risk of rip currents Tuesday and Wednesday for
   coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

 - Peak heat index increases to around 105-107 tomorrow with the
   Heat Risk rising into the Moderate to Major category.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Hot and stormy weather conditions are once again expected this
afternoon across the region. Afternoon temperatures soar into the
middle to upper 90`s, hottest over interior areas west of the I-65
corridor. Most of the area should see afternoon dewpoints mix out
into the upper 60`s to lower 70`s inland, helping to temper heat
indices in the 100 to 107 range, with isolated spots nearing or
exceeding 108. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will
likely develop during the afternoon hours, especially for areas
south of the Highway 84 corridor. Dry air aloft will help bolster
thunderstorm downdrafts, with any storms capable of producing
strong, gusty winds. The lack of wind shear across the area should
keep the strong to severe storm threat limited. The deepest cores
and storm mergers will have the greatest propensity for producing
strong, locally damaging microbursts.

Upper ridging gradually spreads eastward across the region with
deep layer easterly flow becoming established Tuesday into
Wednesday. After this, ridging breaks down into late week as upper
troughing becomes established across the eastern CONUS. This
should keep us with a somewhat active pattern as subtle shortwaves
continue to ride the periphery of the ridge and upper troughing
gradually becomes more dominant. The expectation is for scattered
to locally numerous showers and storms each afternoon, with daily
highs in the lower to middle 90`s. Similar to early in the period,
any storms may be able to produce gusty to locally damaging winds
and heavy rainfall. Overnight temperatures stay steady state in
the lower to middle 70`s.

The rip current risk remains Low for Florida/Alabama beaches
throughout the period with the exception of Tuesday where a
Moderate risk is now forecast. This is thanks to stronger easterly
flow that becomes established across the area the first half of
the day Tuesday. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast outside of
scattered afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA activity inland areas.
Gusty winds and LIFR/IFR visibilities will accompany some of the
stronger storms. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

A generally light southwest to west flow prevails today. Light to
moderate easterly flow becomes established Tuesday and Wednesday.
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow returns for the rest
of the week into the upcoming weekend. Seas generally remain
around 1 to 2 feet this week. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms remain possible during the morning hours each day
with the potential to produce gusty winds and waterspouts. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      95  74  90  74 /  40  40  40  10
Pensacola   92  76  88  76 /  30  40  40  50
Destin      91  76  88  76 /  40  30  50  50
Evergreen   97  71  91  71 /  50  30  20  10
Waynesboro 100  73  93  71 /  10  30  10  10
Camden      98  72  91  72 /  40  30  10   0
Crestview   94  72  90  72 /  50  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$