186
FXUS64 KMOB 191745
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1245 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

  - Tropical Storm Watch in effect for the waters of the western
    Florida panhandle and coastal zones. In addition to potential
    tropical storm force winds, locally heavy rainfall may be
    possible near the coast from Monday through Tuesday.

  - High risk of rip currents beginning Monday evening for western
    Florida panhandle beaches and starting Tuesday for Alabama
    beaches.

  - Heat Advisory in effect for southeast Mississippi until 7 pm
    today, and from 10 am until 7 pm on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Tropical Depression Two has formed off the west coast of Florida,
and is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm by Monday
morning while moving slowly northwestward. The system is expected
to gradually turn to a westward movement and move near or along
the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. Per the
forecast track, this system moves into southeast Louisiana late
afternoon or early evening on Wednesday. Please the National
Hurricane Center for the latest information on Tropical Depression
Two. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coastal portions
of the western Florida panhandle and extends across the adjacent
Gulf waters out 60 nm. It`s possible that the Tropical Storm Watch
may be extended westward to include coastal southwest Alabama on
later updates, and a Wind Advisory may become necessary further
inland. Other than potential wind impacts associated with this
tropical system, there will be the potential for locally heavy
rains mainly affecting the immediate coastal area from Monday into
Tuesday which could lead to flooding issues.

Have gone with slight chance to chance pops for much of the
area tonight, with the higher pops near the coast. For Monday,
will have chance to likely pops for the southern portion of the
area tapering to low rain chances further inland, with the likely
pops confined mainly to portions of the western Florida panhandle.
Rain chances trend higher on Tuesday with likely to categorical
pops expected near and east of the I-65 corridor, with mostly
chance pops elsewhere. For Wednesday, have gone with chance to
likely pops for the southern portion of the area, with the higher
pops near the coast, along with rain chances tapering to slight
chance further inland. A Heat Advisory is in effect until 7 pm
this afternoon for our southeast Mississippi counties due to heat
index values up to 108, and another Heat Advisory is in effect for
the same area from 10 am until 7 pm Monday for similar heat index
values.

Have gone with a moderate risk of rip currents through Monday
night for the Alabama beaches, after which a high risk is in
effect from Tuesday through Wednesday night. For the western
Florida panhandle beaches, will have a moderate risk through
Monday, then a high risk is in effect from Monday night through
Wednesday night. A moderate risk of rip currents follows for
Thursday for all beach areas. Surf height values trend much higher
on Tuesday into Tuesday night, building from near 2 feet to 8-12
feet. This indicates that a High Surf Warning will likely become
necessary at some point between late Tuesday afternoon into the
evening hours. From Thursday into Saturday, am anticipating a
return to a typical summertime pattern of isolated to scattered
showers and storms developing each afternoon. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to move south across
the forecast area this afternoon, bringing local drops of VFR levels
to mid level MVFR levels. Activity will decrease in the evening,
with northerly winds 5 to 10 knots becoming variable. Upper end
MVFR/VFR conditions are expected to develop, with isolated
rainshowers possible east of I-65. Winds are expected to more
northeasterly, whilst rising to 5 to 10 knots.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Tropical Depression Two has formed off the west coast of Florida,
and is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm by Monday morning
while moving slowly northwestward. The system is expected to
gradually turn to a westward movement and move near or along the
northern Gulf coast during the next several days. Winds strengthen
over the marine area on Tuesday then diminish Wednesday night. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  96  75  94 /  20  30  10  50
Pensacola   76  94  77  91 /  30  60  50  80
Destin      77  92  78  89 /  20  60  60  80
Evergreen   72  93  73  92 /  20  10  20  50
Waynesboro  75  97  76  96 /  20  20  10  20
Camden      73  92  74  91 /  20  10  10  20
Crestview   72  94  74  91 /  30  60  30  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through late
     Wednesday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...Tropical Storm Watch for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk from Monday evening through late Wednesday
     night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-
     075-076-078-079.

GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ634>636-655-675.

&&

$$