031
FXUS64 KMOB 300530
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1230 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1224 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

- Rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
  expected through the weekend, especially near the coast. Hazards
  will include intense rain rates leading to localized flooding
  and brief gusty winds. For marine areas, waterspouts and locally
  strong to severe wind gusts will be possible.

- A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents is in place for local area
  beaches through Monday.

- Heat index values of 95-100 trend higher by the middle of next
  week, potentially reaching 103-110.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Late tonight, the main story remains to be what is denoted as
Invest 97L, or a weak surface low about 125 miles south of
Pensacola in our outer marine waters. Focusing in on the next
12-18 hours taking a very close look at the latest HRRR/REFS
guidance shows a persistent indication for convective initiation
later this morning through mid/late Sunday morning. Wanted to
take a much closer look over this potential going through a suite
of guidance and mesoscale analysis, which continues to reveal the
main player being a combination of several factors: 1) Increasing
differential friction speed convergence/directional confluence,
which really sets off the CAM`s with convective initiation later,
as RAP sfc vorticity/convergence remains targeted right along the
coast from Destin to coastal MS later tonight. Should landbreeze
development help to switch winds more from the E to eventual ENE,
this "squeeze" will increase aiding in even greater localized
ascent. 2) Closely related to this, Invest 97L itself will
steadily drift west, helping to promote more ESE to SE marine
winds with time and, broad scale sfc to low-level confluence will
support lift needed for marine convection later tonight. 3)
Building overnight marine instability, which will be the
fuel for where/if any storms develop. Taking a look at the latest
00Z HREF run continues to target 3hr QPF PMM right along the
coast from coastal Jackson Co, MS to coastal Mobile, Baldwin and
perhaps near Pensacola from 09-15Z being the main targeted time.
Comparably, the 18Z REFS 6hr PMM targets the same area, providing
locally higher QPF values of 6-8" (some 10") between the I-10
corridor and perhaps just barely offshore. Will frankly say,
should these ingredients come together, models support a localized
targeted flash flood risk. If storms ignite along the west/east
oriented convergence band, storms will be very capable of
localized training/backbuilding given easterly 850mb moisture
transport, opposite of corfidi upshear vectors from the west.

The catch will be as previously mentioned, if enough
lift can ignite as widespread convection, and the location.
Should the landbreeze be a bit more overcoming, the corridor
could be just offshore. Regardless, given targeted consistency
amongst more reliable CAM trends in the near-term, began to
message this risk. Additionally, overall lowest 0-1km bulk shear
being very low, low ML LCL, ample PW at 2.0"+, and steep 0-3km
lapse rates will once again support an enhanced waterspout risk
and given the proximity of potential convection to the beaches,
could be photogenic again in some areas.

If convection occurs similar to guidance, eventually this activity
drifts an outflow boundary north, north of the interstate into
interior MS/AL/FL which will combine to support lift alongside
daytime diurnal destabilization for more inland activity. PoPs
reveal this scenario well with lower PoPs for farther north as
confidence is a tad lower within drier vertical profile.

Monday, as the surface low continues it`s slow meandering journey
west across SE LA, we`ll remain parked under SE to S flow for
another round of early AM marine convection and nearshore
waterspout/localized flash flooding risk.

No major adjustments needed for temperatures today and Monday,
but should convection along the coast be more overzealous, that
could interfere with forecast highs and could be several, if not
many degrees cooler just depending on how the diurnal curve is
effected by delay and we clear out later, or clouds remain around
the area, likely the former, thus, didn`t touch temperatures too
much this go around.

Tuesday through there rest of the week, with ridging parked just
to our north over the mid MS valley region, we`ll continue to see
weak PVA/impulses riding east to west across the northern Gulf
coast to provide attendant energy/lift in conjunction with daily
destabilization/seabreeze development for routine
morning/afternoon shower/storm risks. Temperatures do climb
steadily with highs back into the mid 90`s, but as we`ve been
mentioning, long-term forecast dewpoints provided by the NBM
continue to not reflect a more realistic PBL mixing regime,
meaning heat indices will remain likely lower in the 103-108
degree range. Still hot, regardless! But welcome to summer.

Will end looking at the long-range as going over cluster analysis
between the CMC, EPS and GEFS was pretty entertaining. Seeing a
distinct split amongst guidance at several interesting scenario
potentials. Namely, formerly Dolly OR additional disturbances
riding west from the Bahamas potentially into the Gulf. Seeing
spread on 1) The idea of the ridge once again retrograding west
back to the four-corners region, helping to promote deeper east-
coast troughing OR the ridge remains parked just about in place.
Not going to get cute and weight out a laundry list of scenarios
here, instead will mention low confidence in the extended. With
the possibility of disturbances parading towards the area, it will
require close monitoring because if the synoptic scale reveals
any (even smaller) period of favorable tropical development in the
vicinity of these disturbances, it is possible we could see
something reform/or develop in the Gulf and from there, it`s tough
to say this early. So will finish by saying late week into next
weekend/early the following week, just stay tuned. Especially if
you have any upcoming travel plans and remember to pay attention
to reliable sources. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.
Another round of scattered to numerous showers and storms are
expected to develop along the coast prior to day break, continuing
through the late morning hours. Expect brief reductions in
visibilities and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. Rain
chances should start to decrease during the afternoon and
especially into the evening hours. Winds will generally be
easterly to southeasterly at around 5-10 knots throughout the
period. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

A weak low pressure center located about 125 miles south of
Pensacola will continue to slowly drift westward away from the area
over the next few days. However, this system will continue to bring
local marine hazards including periods of scattered to numerous
thunderstorms, with squalls producing winds 34 knots or greater and
a heightened risk for waterspouts. Outside of thunderstorm activity,
moderate SE flow will persist st generally 10-15kts, higher for 20-
60nm zones. Waves will respond in the 2 to approaching 3ft range,
but winds and wave/seas relax more going into next week as the
surface low drifts farther away from the local area. KLG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      90  73  92  74 /  70  20  60  10
Pensacola   89  76  90  77 /  60  30  60  20
Destin      88  77  89  77 /  60  30  60  20
Evergreen   93  70  95  69 /  30  10  30  10
Waynesboro  94  72  96  70 /  30  10  20   0
Camden      93  72  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
Crestview   92  71  93  72 /  50  20  50  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$