767
FXUS64 KMOB 051114
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
614 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

A rather unsettled pattern will continue through the first half of
the week as a surface low moves north across Louisiana and gets
absorb by a larger upper trough over the western US. We will be
positioned on the eastern or dirty side of this system with deep
southerly flow developing across the area. Expect a plume of deep
tropical moisture to surge northward tonight and into the day on
Sunday with PWATS likely approaching 2 inches across the area.
Steadily increasing ascent will spread northward throughout the
day on Sunday and persisting into Monday. Periods of rain with
isolated pockets of heavy rain will be likely Sunday and Monday
helping slowly whittle away at increasing drought conditions.
Expect rain to begin sometime late tonight into early Sunday
morning and just persist on and off through Monday. Other than
some rain the next 48 hours, concerns will mainly just remain at
the coastline with high surf, minor coastal overwash and High risk
of rip currents.

By the middle of the week high pressure will begin to retrograde
westward across the deep south leading to some drying of
conditions across the area. Rather zonal flow will develop by
Wednesday as the upper ridge flattens out and some moisture is
expected to linger across the area. However, subsidence from the
upper ridge should limit any rain chances to the more standard
isolated to scattered storms along any seabreeze that does develop
each afternoon. Some increased activity could occur further
inland as a weak upper trough attempts to dig into the eastern
CONUS Thursday and Friday. Overall, the second half of the week
will likely be a return to warm temperatures and dry conditions.
Expect highs to steadily climb into the upper 80s by Wednesday
into Thursday. BB-8

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Showers with some embedded storms will continue to gradually
spread inland today, and linger into the evening hours. The
highest coverage of showers and storms is anticipated to be over
the coastal counties. IFR conditions and gusty winds will
accompany the stronger storms with MVFR/VFR conditions otherwise
anticipated. Easterly winds 10-15 knots prevail today then
diminish to 5-10 knots by this evening. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Gulf through the
weekend as strong easterly flow persists at the base of a strong
surface ridge across the southeast states. Seas will continue to
range from 7 to 9 feet well offshore. Winds will gradually
decrease Monday with seas slowly subsiding. A moderate to
occasionally strong easterly to northeasterly flow will follow
through midweek. BB-8

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      79  70  84  70  87  70  89  70 /  80  70  70  10  20   0  20  10
Pensacola   80  73  84  73  86  73  88  73 /  80  70  40  10  10   0  20  10
Destin      82  73  85  73  86  73  87  73 /  80  50  30  10  10   0  10   0
Evergreen   83  69  87  68  89  67  91  68 /  60  40  30  10  10   0  20  10
Waynesboro  82  68  83  68  87  67  89  68 /  60  50  50  10  10   0  20  10
Camden      84  68  86  67  88  67  89  68 /  50  40  20  10  10   0  20  10
Crestview   82  69  85  68  88  68  89  67 /  70  40  30  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

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