094
FXUS64 KMOB 010132
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
832 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 823 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

 - Rain chances increase into this evening, continuing into Sunday.
   Rain may impact trick-or-treating for some areas, especially
   west of I-65, with coverage increasing areawide overnight. Most
   areas can expect around 0.5-1 of rain, though isolated totals
   of 3-4 are possible.

 - A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area
   beaches through early next week. Surf heights increase to 4-6
   feet by Sunday, with rough surf expected. There is a small chance
   of minor coastal flooding tonight.

 - Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous
   conditions for small craft through early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 823 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Forecast remains on track this evening; no updates needed. /96

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Through Tuesday night, an upper level shortwave trough currently
moving over the Mississippi River passes over the forecast area
later today through Sunday. Moisture levels have increased into
the 1.4"-1.6" range at this time and are expected to rise into the
1.8"-2.0" range tonight as winds in the 900-700mb range shift to
more southeasterly, bringing increasing amounts moisture inland.
Surface high pressure is advertised hanging tough over the Mid-
Atlantic region, limiting the best moisture return to the western
half of the forecast area and points west. Model soundings show
modest instability (MUCapes topping out around 1000J/kg), with mid
level height falls limited with the trough. Looking at possible
impacts with this first system, limited instability combines with
modest wind shear (Bulk Wind Shear of 20-25kts). Helicities by
themselves are rising into the 200-250 m^2/s^s range, mainly over
areas north of Highway 84. The best instability is limited to
southern MS and coastal Al, well separated from the better
helicities. Any 850mb jet to help destabilize the lower levels of
the atmosphere is indicated to be east of the forecast area. All in
all, the chance of strong to severe storms is expected to be low
due this mis-match placement of ingredients. With high moisture
levels, there is a low possiblity of water issues, mainly Sunday
and in poor drainage areas closer to the coast, and from training
cells. The latest Drought Monitor shows Abnormally dry to Moderate
Drought conditions north of our coastal counties, helping to temper
water issues over these areas.

Later Sunday night into Wednesday, guidance is advertising another
shortwave trough/closed low moving to the Mississippi River.
Guidance is inconsistent with the organization with the upper
dynamics inconsistent in the guidance. Some of the guidance is
advertising the upper dynamics, whether trough or close low, taking
a negative tilt as it moves over the Southeast. With inconsistent
timing and placement of the ingredients, will have to take a will
monitor attitude for now.

After this second system passes, the Southeast comes under zonal
upper flow heading into the weekend, with a dry forecast indicated.

Taking a look at coastal areas, a High Risk of rip currents is
maintained through the rest of the week, before decreasing to
Moderate Wednesday into Thursday as east to southeast flow
decreases. With the tidal range at its maximum the next 24hrs and
decreasing, there is some concern of a High Surface Advisory or
Coastal Flood Advisory being needed. With P-ETTS based forecast data
adverting a less than 10% of the water levels approaching minor
inundation levels, less of exceeding, will monitor for now. Also,
surf heights on area beaches are expected to be rough, but remain
below High Surf Advisory criteria.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 823 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place at issuance time. Rain
chances are expected to increase as we progress through the night,
particularly over coastal counties and into southeast Mississippi.
Coverage becomes more numerous by mid/late Sunday morning and
into the early afternoon hours, with rainfall potentially lowering
visibilities to MVFR (occasionally lower in some of the heavier
activity). In addition, ceilings are forecast to lower to IFR or
lower by around sunrise, and will linger through much of the day
on Sunday. Winds will generally be easterly at around 5-10 knots
tonight, increasing to around 10 knots, with occasional gusts to
around 20 knots by the late morning/afternoon hours. /96


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

A moderate to strong easterly flow will continue into the
coming week. Winds will shift to southeasterly Tuesday into Tuesday
night as a system approaches the area from the west. Winds gradually
decreasing and turning onshore by mid-week after the systems
passage. Seas will build to 5-7 feet by Sunday and will gradually
decrease throughout the upcoming week.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      81  67  77  65 /  30  40  60  20
Pensacola   80  69  77  67 /  10  30  60  20
Destin      81  68  77  66 /  10  50  60  20
Evergreen   80  63  74  60 /  20  30  60  20
Waynesboro  81  63  76  61 /  60  60  60  20
Camden      76  62  72  60 /  40  40  60  30
Crestview   82  65  77  62 /  10  30  70  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$