107
FXUS64 KMOB 301115
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
615 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

A closed upper low over the Caribbean meanders north to along the
East Coast into tonight, joining shortwave energy moving though an
active upper pattern over the northern half of the Conus. A mean
upper trough forms over the eastern Conus in the process. Additional
shortwave energy moving into the upper trough over the Southeast
will work with a soupy airmass over the region (precipitable h20
values in the 2.1"-2.3" range) to create a wet Monday through
Tuesday night. A strong shortwave moves through the trough Wednesday
into Wednesday night, with a weak cold front moving over the
forecast area late Wednesday into Thursday. The air behind the front
is not appreciably cooler, but significantly drier (moisture
levels drop into the 1.0"-1.2" range or drier), shifting the rain
over the forecast south over the Gulf and a dry latter half of the
work week.

Instability is limited (MLCapes around 1000J/kg) early in the week,
but with the soupy airmass, the thunderstorms are expected to be
efficient rainers. Guidance continues to paint the best combination
of moisture feed off the Gulf and better instability being over our
coastal counties. Wednesday through the rest of the week, an upper
ridge that has built north over the Plains shifts east, shifting the
upper trough off the East Coast. Guidance is advertising the
southern tip of the trough breaking off and organizing into a weakly
organized upper low over the Florida Peninsula Friday into the
weekend. The latest guidance is advertising this low meandering west
over the Gulf. Atlantic moisture works it way west over the
Southeast on the north side of this upper low and associated weak
surface circulation, bring rain back over the forecast area this
weekend into the coming week. NHC continues to monitor the
northeastern Gulf/Atlantic seaboard area for the low possibility
(20%) of this system becoming tropical.

High temperatures in the beginning of the forecast start below
seasonal norms, then rise the middle of the week into the coming
weekend as the upper ridge comes closer to the forecast area. High
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s Monday rise into the upper 80s
to low 90s for Wednesday, then low to mid 90s for the coming
weekend. Heat indices start out in the 94-99 degree range over most
of the forecast area Monday, rising into the 98-103 degree range
Wednesday. The increasing temperatures will keep heat indices in
this range for the rest of the week, but as moisture flows back over
the forecast area this weekend, heat indices rise into the 100-106
degree range over most of the forecast area. Low temperatures see a
small fluctuation through the week, falling from the low to mid 70s
Monday night to upper 60s to mid 70s well inland from the coast
(upper 70s continue along the coast) before rising into the low to
mid 70s well inland, upper 70s to near 80 system organizing along
the coast for the coming weekend.

A larger tidal cycle will work with a modest onshore swell to bring
a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents to area beaches the beginning of the
week. The Rip Risk drops to a Low Risk the latter half of the week
as the tidal cycle decreases and the onshore swell drops.

Looking well outside of the Southeast, Barry will continue to move
inland over Mexico today.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Showers and storms developing near the coast will spread across
the remainder of the area into the early afternoon hours, then
diminish this evening. IFR to MVFR conditions will accompany the
stronger storms. A mainly westerly flow around 5 knots develops
this morning, then becomes southwesterly 5-10 knots this
afternoon. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

A light to at times moderate onshore flow is expected early in the
week. A surface front is expected to move south over the northern
Gulf Wednesday night into Thursday and stall just south of the
marine portion of the forecast area, bringing offshore flow the
latter half of the week. Winds will transition back to an east to
southeast this coming weekend.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      87  72  88  72  90  71  93  71 /  90  60  90  60  50  20  30  10
Pensacola   86  74  86  74  90  75  93  74 /  90  70  90  70  60  30  30  10
Destin      88  76  88  77  92  77  94  78 /  90  80  90  70  60  40  30  20
Evergreen   88  70  87  71  91  70  94  69 /  90  50  90  40  40  10  20  10
Waynesboro  88  71  89  71  90  69  93  68 /  80  40  90  30  30   0  10   0
Camden      87  71  87  71  88  69  91  69 /  80  50  80  40  30  10  10   0
Crestview   86  70  86  71  91  70  93  69 /  90  60 100  50  70  20  40  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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