Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 161510 AAC
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1010 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

&&

.UPDATE...Local beach patrol officials along the Alabama and
western Florida panhandle beaches are reporting weak to moderate
rip currents, and are now flying green or yellow flags. Bouy
reports have the swell heights down to 1.6 feet with 6 second
periods. With these conditions, along with a light south wind of
less than 10 mph, we downgraded the rip current risk for today
from high to moderate. Models continue to show improving
conditions tonight, so downgraded the rip current risk from
moderate to low. A low risk is then forecast through Friday night.
/22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 911 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land and marine areas below.

UPDATE...Surface observations at the top of the hour are no
longer reporting fog across south central Alabama. Sent a quick
update to remove mention of early morning fog from the public
zone forecast. Also removed any chance of morning precipitation
based on the current clear radar and high resolution models
holding off on developing any precipitation across our western and
extreme northeastern zones until this afternoon. /22

MARINE...Sent a quick update to remove mention of morning
precipitation over the gulf waters based on the current clear
radar and high resolution models holding off on developing any
precipitation through the remainder of the day. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Mostly VFR conditions through 17.12z. Winds will
be southeast to south at 5 to 10 knots later this morning through
early this evening diminishing to 5 knots or less late this
evening through 17.12z. 32/ee

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 428 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday night/...The remnants of Barry
generally over the mid MS River valley this morning will begin to
merge and be picked up with the mean upper flow over the northern
tier states. To the south a broad surface to H5 ridge of high
pressure over the southeast conus and western Atlantic continues
to shift west leading to a more stable airmass and lower rain
chances across the northern gulf states and forecast area today
and tonight. With this pattern the best chance for measurable
rain...mainly isolated in coverage...continues to be over the
AL/MS coastal waters moving inland mostly over SE MS and western
portions of SW AL later this morning and afternoon. For this
morning expect isolated showers followed by isolated showers or
thunderstorms this afternoon. This precip should be short lived
with rainfall totals generally less than .10 inches where it
develops. Otherwise, better sunshine is expected across the
forecast area today with less clouds expected tonight compared to
the last few nights.

Temperatures will be around or slightly above season norms today and
tonight. Highs today will range from the lower to middle 90s for
most inland areas and the upper 80s to lower 90s near the immediate
coast. Lows tonight will range from the lower to middle 70s for most
inland areas and the upper 70s to near 80 along the immediate coast.

With a persistent moderate southerly swell offshore combined with a
light southerly wind flow and a high or spring tidal range a high
risk for rip currents will continue along the Gulf beaches of AL and
NWFL through this afternoon. 32/ee

SHORT TERM /Wednesday Through Thursday night/...At the surface,
the trof axis trailing the remnants of Barry migrates eastward
over the Ohio River Valley to northern Alabama on Wednesday,
moving off to the east coast by Thursday night. However, the tail
end of the trof axis continues to linger over the southeastern
states. A building ridge aloft will be centered to the north of
our area, over Kentucky, by late Thursday. As mentioned in
previous discussion, the deepest moisture will be located within
and east of the trof axis, and with the ridging aloft we will be
looking at a more typical summer-time diurnal convective pattern
setting up over our region as we go through the short term period,
with isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening showers
and thunderstorms. We will be trending warmer Wednesday and
Thursday, with highs ranging from the low to mid 90s each day.
Warmest temperatures will be over the eastern half of the forecast
area, and especially on Thursday when a few interior eastern
locations may reach up toward 97 degrees. Coolest temperatures
will be near the coast where highs will be around 90. With all the
moisture in place, afternoon heat indices will reach the 100 to
105 degree range on both Wednesday and Thursday, with some values
up near 107 degrees on Thursday. Overnight lows remain warm and
muggy, ranging from the low to mid 70s over inland areas and mid
to upper 70s closer to and along the coast. 12/DS

LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...Mid-level ridge axis sets up
over the Ohio River Valley at the close of the week. South of
this feature, there a tap of Atlantic moisture will spread east
to west over the central Gulf coast region as a mid-level
impulse/inverted trof sneaks west across the southeastern states
to the south of the weakening upper ridge. This will tend to
increase PoPs to chance category by early in the weekend, and as
the upper ridging to the north gives way to a digging trof, some
likely PoPs can be expected in some areas. Away from storms,
daytime highs reflect little change, with low to mid 90s expected
and heat indices continuing in the 100 to 105 degree range.
Overnight lows will continue to be in the low to mid 70s over
interior areas and in the mid to upper 70s closer to and along
the coast. 12/DS

MARINE...High pressure will continue to build west over the eastern
and north central Gulf through the week leading to a light southerly
wind flow over the marine area through much of the week. The highest
winds and seas will occur over the near shore waters out to 20 nm
including inland bays and sounds during the afternoon and early
evening hours due to afternoon heating inland. 32/ee

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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