Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 190531 AAC
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1131 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z issuance...VFR conditions expected through the first 18hrs of
the forecast. As the forecast moves into Monday night, CIGs
dropping into MVFR levels along with isolated SHRA will begin to
affect eastern Mississippi and far western Alabama.

/16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 951 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE...Package updated to add patchy fog to the area. Rest of
forecast is on track, with overnight lows expected to drop into
the low to mid 40s over most of the area.

/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 525 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions expected through the forecast.

/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...A weak cold front pushes southeast
into the lower Mississippi River Valley through the near term as a
weak upper-level shortwave digs across the Great Plains. Ahead of
this front, the surface ridge over the local area weakens and
moisture sees a slow but steady increase, with PWATs improving to
around an inch by Monday afternoon. Increasing cloud cover will be
the only impact for most during the next 24 hours. However, cannot
rule out an isolated shower or two over interior southeast
Mississippi and southwest Alabama late Monday afternoon and evening
as the front gets closer. Lows tonight continue a slow warming trend
due to the increasing moisture, with temps dipping into the low to
mid 40s inland and upper 40s to around 50 along the coast. Highs on
Monday range from upper 60s to low 70s areawide. /49

SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...A weak cold
front will push southeastward across the forecast area Monday
night. Moisture and forcing along the boundary appear to be enough
to produce some light rainfall as it passes. Surface high pressure
then builds over the deep south Tuesday through Wednesday with a
flat ridge prevailing aloft keeping the forecast area dry. An
upper level shortwave trough propagating eastward from Texas is
projected to bring the potential of some spotty...light
rainshower activity to the area Wednesday night. Temperatures
are projected to trend a little cooler than climatological norms.
/08

LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...Light shower activity is
possible early Thanksgiving morning but should clear out of the
area by afternoon as the upper level shortwave trough exits the
region. Precipitation probabilities increase Friday into Saturday
as a stronger shortwave trough aloft couples with the surface low
pressure area over the western gulf...deepening it and driving it
eastward. Disagreement between the models remain regarding
strength and movement. It still appears as though most of the
heavy rainfall may remain over the Gulf waters. For now have gone
with high end chance of precipitation probabilities by Friday
night with showers gradually moving east of the area Saturday and
Saturday night. There exists a great deal of uncertainty at this
time as to the evolution of this system and significant
adjustments are possible over the next couple of days. /08

MARINE...A light to occasionally moderate offshore flow prevails
over the marine area through midweek. A moderate, more easterly flow
develops later this week in response to a low pressure system
forming in the western Gulf. Seas remain 2 feet or less through
about Wednesday, building to 3 to 5 feet by Friday. /49

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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