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000
FXUS64 KMOB 240450
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1150 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light and
variable winds will persist overnight through Sunday morning,
becoming southerly in the afternoon at 5-10 knots south of a
sea-breeze that should reach US Highway 84 by early Sunday
evening. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 223 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Enjoy this weekend`s dry, pleasant weather as rain chances creep
back into the forecast next week.

The sea breeze continues to hover along the coastline at this hour
as it struggles to progress inland in the northerly flow. That
said, winds are light enough that inland progression across the
coastal counties is imminent as we head deeper into the afternoon
hours. Dry air continues to filter into parts of south Alabama and
northwest Florida as PWATs tank to 1.0-1.3 inches, but there
remains just enough moisture pooled across southeast Mississippi
that a few showers have developed west of Highway 49. Dewpoints
continue to drop with many inland sites now hovering in the mid to
low 50s this afternoon. Dry air continues to spill into the local
area tonight with HREF ensemble mean PWATs of 0.8-0.9 inches
spreading across much of the area.

Sunday`s weather will be a carbon copy of today as the pattern
aloft begins to breakdown. Flow in the mid and upper levels
generally remains northerly through Sunday as the ridge to our
west nudges into the region and the trough draped down the East
Coast begins to lift northeast somewhat. Dry air remains overhead
and POPs remain minimal. Temperatures on Sunday will top out in
the 90s area-wide, but with dewpoints crashing into the 50s again
in the afternoon, heat stress will not be a concern.

Beach Note: The risk for rip currents is LOW through Sunday (and
through at least the middle of next week). 07/mb

SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

A weak shortwave trof progresses across the lower Mississippi
River valley on Monday then mostly moves off to the east. The weak
shortwave trof brings what can be construed as an upper level
weakness into the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday morning
which slowly heads to dissipation Tuesday afternoon. An upper trof
over the northern Plains to western Great Lakes meanwhile
advances slowly eastward, and by Tuesday night shortwave energy
advancing across the south central states aids in expanding the
upper trof down to along the lower Mississippi River valley. A
weak surface boundary will be present at the beginning of the
period across the northern portion of the forecast area back to
ArkLaMiss, and is expected to linger close to this position
through Monday. The weak boundary looks to be slowly pushed into
the marine area Monday night in response to a surface ridge
strengthening over the interior eastern states. Low level
convergence along the boundary also increases a bit Monday night,
aided by a weak inverted surface trof in the easterlies
progressing across the central Gulf. The weak boundary drifts back
into the land portion of forecast area on Tuesday then is pushed
out of the area Tuesday night in the fashion of a "back door cold
front" in response to surface ridging strengthening over the
southeast states. A mainly small chance for rain returns to
southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama on Monday as
deep layer moisture improves over this portion of the area along
with the approaching weak upper trof and proximity of the frontal
boundary. Small rain chances develop near the coast Monday night
as the weak boundary moves into the marine area, then slight
chance to chance pops follow for Tuesday as the boundary drifts
back inland with deep layer moisture meanwhile improving over the
entire area. Lows Sunday night range from the 60s over much of the
interior areas to near 70 at the coast, then trend a bit warmer
through Tuesday night when lows range from the mid 60s inland to
the lower 70s at the coast. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be
around 90 to the lower 90s. A low risk of rip currents is expected
through Tuesday night. /29

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

An upper trof located mainly over the western Great Lakes to the
Ohio/Mississippi River confluence continues into the northeastern
states on Thursday. A series of shortwaves meanwhile lead to the
formation of an upper level weakness along the northern Gulf
coastal area. The upper level weakness merges with the northeast
states upper trof (which moves partially off into the western
Atlantic by Saturday), to form a broad upper trof over the
northern Gulf coast states. A surface ridge which had been
strengthening over the eastern states in the SHORT TERM period
strengthens a bit further and remains in place through Saturday.
Have continued with chance to likely pops for Wednesday as the
series of shortwaves and evolving upper level weakness combined
with plenty of deep layer moisture make for a convectively
favorable environment. Drier deep layer air gradually flows into
the area Thursday into Friday and have continued with rain chances
diminishing through Friday to dry conditions over interior areas
with slight chance to chance pops continue closer to the coast.
Similar pops continue for Saturday. /29

MARINE...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms early next week. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      67  92  69  92  69  90  69  86 /   0   0   0  10  10  40  40  50
Pensacola   70  91  70  90  73  88  72  84 /   0   0   0  10  20  50  50  60
Destin      72  90  73  90  74  87  74  86 /   0   0   0  10  20  50  60  60
Evergreen   61  94  63  94  65  92  67  86 /   0   0   0  10  10  30  30  50
Waynesboro  63  94  67  91  66  92  67  86 /   0   0   0  30  20  20  20  30
Camden      60  90  64  90  65  90  66  84 /   0   0   0  10  10  20  20  40
Crestview   62  94  63  93  67  89  68  86 /   0   0   0  10  10  40  40  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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