Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 271301

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
801 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022

12Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through much of the
period. Scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms
will develop during the afternoon with brief reductions in
ceilings in visibilities. /13


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Tuesday/...A weak flattened upper ridge over
the southern CONUS will continue to retreat westward in response to
a broad upper trough moving passing over the Great lakes and Ohio
River regions. An associated weak surface boundary will move into
the region from the northwest during the afternoon hours today.
Increased moisture and lift along this boundary combined with peak
heating will support numerous showers and storms mainly along and
west of Interstate 65. This boundary will gradually make its way
towards the coast through the afternoon and evening hours with
convection gradually decreasing in coverage as it moves south. While
instability and low level lapse rates generally look meager, can`t
rule out a strong storm or two with gusty winds, frequent lightning,
and heavy rainfall. Lows tonight will be slightly cooler north of
the boundary, with temperatures ranging from 69 to 73 inland, with
mid 70s at the coast.

Meanwhile, a shortwave will approach the region and along the base
of the upper trough tonight and Tuesday, with the axis stalling over
the lower Mississippi River by late Tuesday afternoon. This will
allow mainly isolated showers and storms over the Gulf tonight to
expand northward through Tuesday afternoon. With the deep moisture
remaining, added lift along the meandering boundary, combined with
peak heating (low to mid 90s) will once again support high-end
scattered to numerous showers and storms across the forecast area.
With the the added potential for wet microbursts based on elevated
DCAPE values and model soundings, a strong storm or two with gusty
winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall remain likely. High
temperatures Tuesday will be warm, but only range from 88 to 93
degrees due to increased rain chances. 22/13

SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Wednesday night/...The short
term will only mirror the extended term as we are stuck in
relatively weak flow aloft as a weak upper trough moves east
across the Great Lakes. At the Surface a weak boundary will stall
out across our our area Wednesday. The combination of this
boundary and high PWATS flirting in the 2 inch range will lead to
yet another soggy day on Wednesday. Looking even more like a total
washout across the area on Wednesday as storms likely kickoff
quite early in the morning near the coast and quickly spread
inland. Storms will slowly diminish throughout the evening
Wednesday night and shift back towards the marine waters as the
typical diurnal summer cycle reloads for the next day. The real
only concerns will be the potential for heavy rain rates on
Wednesday. Model soundings are rather tropical with high PWATS and
relatively warm profile that could yield more efficient warm rain
processes. The overall soil conditions can support a heck of a
lot of water given how dry we have been this month. However,
flooding is not always about how much but sometimes on how heavy.
Storms will be capable of heavier rain rates likely creeping up
into the 2 inch per hour plus range. Usually this is also not an
issue as storms move quickly out of the area, but with weak flow
aloft storms will move slowly and some training near the
boundaries could yield local areas receiving heavier rainfall.
This will be especially true for urban areas and poorly draining
coastal areas.

The good news is that all the rain and cloud cover will keep
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s across the area. Low
temperatures will remain warm for this time of the year with
dewpoints lingering in the low to mid 70s. Expect lows Tuesday and
Wednesday night to remain in the low to mid 70s. BB/03

EXTENDED TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...Could sum up the
remainder of the week as episode 6 return of the rain. The
unsettled and rather soggy summertime pattern will march on
through the end of the week and into the weekend with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Synoptically
speaking there is no real upper level drivers for the pattern as
we are stuck in a weakness between two upper ridges. With
southerly flow at the surface, deep Gulf moisture will remain
across the area with PWATS floating around the 2 inch through
Sunday. Expect a standard diurnal cycle each day with storms
beginning in the early morning hours near the coast then moving
inland throughout the day. The main concern will likely continue
to be the potential for heavier rainfall given the same reasons
discussed within the short period. The one main thing to watch
will be how much rain we receive by this point in the week. The
more rain we see earlier in the week, the more potential for
localized flooding as soil moisture increases and ground become
saturated. Really just a wait and see kind of deal but rainfall
could certainly add up by Saturday or Sunday. With summer
thunderstorms also comes usually some potential for a strong storm
or two; however, overall profiles really do not support
microbursts given the mostly saturated profiles.

Temperatures will continue to moderate in the upper 80s to low 90s
given all the cloud cover and rainfall each day. Lows will also
remain fairly seasonable with lows in the low to mid 70s each
evening. BB/03

MARINE...No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and
seas possible near isolated thunderstorms. /13




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