Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 221204 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
704 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


12Z issuance...VFR to MVFR conditions through about 22.18z then
mostly MVFR cigs and visibilties through about 23.03z then mostly
VFR conditions through 23.18z. Lower cigs and visibilities mainly
in and around scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
through the forecast period. Winds will be variable at 5 knots or
less early today becoming mostly south at 4 to 8 knots this
afternoon through early this evening then becoming light and
variable overnight and most of Wed morning. 32/ee


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 446 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday night/...A weak upper low near the
Texas coast combined with a weak ridge of high pressure located
over much of the eastern Gulf and Fl peninsula will continue to
allow better moisture to advect inland across the north central
Gulf states through tonight. Latest model soundings show slightly
higher pwats across most areas of the forecast area today and
tonight averaging around 1.7 inches through tonight. Marginal
instability and lapse rates are also noted, similar to the last
few days, leading to another round of scattered to numerous
thunderstorms across the forecast area today continuing through
most of tonight. The best lift looks to be near the immediate
coast and offshore this morning shifting inland later this morning
mostly over extreme eastern sections of the forecast area then
across the most central and northern sections of the forecast area
this afternoon and this evening. Similiar to yesterday expect
gusty straight line winds, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
periods of very heavy rain with most of the stronger thunderstorms
this afternoon and this evening. Due to recent rains and a
saturated ground surface some minor flooding will be possible,
especially in urban areas and areas prone to poor drainage, later
in the day continuing into the evening hours.

With plenty of clouds expected through tonight temperatures will
continue to be moderated somewhat with highs climbing to the mid 80s
for most of the eastern half of the forecast area, including the
immediate coast, and the upper 80s to the west. Lows tonight will
range from the upper 60s to lower 70s for most inland areas and the
lower to middle 70s along the immediate coast. 32/EE

SHORT TERM /Wednesday Through Thursday night/...Mid/upper level
ridging over interior eastern portion of the country drifts east
through the period and approaches the east coast by late Tuesday
night. Meanwhile a broad and weak mid/upper low develops over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Low pressure slowly works its way down to
the surface Thursday into late Thursday night, with a number of
models indicating a surface low over the central Gulf by late
Thursday night. East to southeast low level flow will continue to
bring abundant low level moisture into the region and combined
with the weakness aloft will maintain scattered to ocnly numerous
showers and thunderstorms each day. As has been the case, a few
strong storms will be possible both Wednesday and Thursday. A
moderate risk of rip currents is expected to develop by Wednesday
and continue through the period as the east to southeast surface
flow increases as a result of the developing surface low pressure
area in the central Gulf. Daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s
and overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. 12/DS

LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...The developing surface low
pressure over the central Gulf could transition into a tropical,
warm core system over the central Gulf by Friday and then likely
drift north toward the central Gulf coastal region through the
early part of the weekend, although a few model solutions keep it
closer to the Florida peninsula. NHC is now indicating a 40
percent chance of a some gradual subtropical or tropical
development later this week while the system moves slowly
northward into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is
still some uncertainty with the forecast movement and strength of
this system as it moves generally north toward the northern Gulf
coast. It is still too early to discuss any real specifics with
this system, but the overall developing pattern does continue to
support at least likely PoPs across most of the Gulf coast region
through the period. Depending on the evolution of the system
other impacts such as potential flash flood concerns, as well some
marine hazards such as minor coastal flooding and high surf and
increased rip current risk along area beaches may have to be
addressed as well. We will continue to monitor this situation.
Little change in temperatures is expected in the long term,
although daytime highs could be a little lower by the weekend due
to extensive cloud cover and precipitation. 12/DS

MARINE...A weak upper low over the western Gulf combined with a
weak upper ridge of high pressure over much of the eastern gulf
will help maintain a light to moderate southerly wind flow over
the marine area through Thu. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will also continue through Thu with the best
coverage occurring near the coast and over inland bays and sounds.
By late Thu into Fri a developing sfc low over the south central
gulf will begin to shift northward leading to a moderate to
occasionally strong easterly flow over the marine area late in the
week and over the weekend. At this time easterly winds possibly
near Small Craft levels can be expected late in the week and over
the weekend. Due to the uncertainty with the track and intensity
the impacts to the marine area are subject change each day as we
near the weekend. Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms
will be likely with this pattern late in the week. Stay tuned to
local media outlets or NOAA weather radio on this developing
weather pattern late in the week and over the weekend. 32/Ee




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