Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
539 FXUS64 KMOB 250626 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1226 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 - Strong to severe storms are possible today. Frequent wind gusts in excess of 40mph are expected outside of storms with a Wind Advisory in effect this morning into mid afternoon. A High risk of rip currents remains in effect through tonight. - Bitter cold temperatures are expected tonight and Monday night with overnight temperatures dipping into the teens to lower 20s. Wind chills values both nights could range from as low as the single digits well inland to the teens near the coast. Cold temperatures continue Tuesday night into Saturday night. - Strong northerly winds will likely create hazardous conditions for small craft from late tonight through early Tuesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Isolated to scattered showers continue across the area. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase through daybreak, with isolated strong to severe storms becoming possible along and ahead of a cold front through mid afternoon. In the wake of the front, bitterly cold temperatures follow as the forecast dries out through the rest of the week. As we head through daybreak, isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to increase in coverage as a shortwave moves across the area. A pre-frontal trough over the western FL panhandle into south-central AL will serve as a focus for development near daybreak. Surface based instability will be generally near or below 500j/kg, but elevated instability may exceed 500j/kg. Given large, curved hodographs with deep layer shear values nearing 60 knots, and mostly straight line hodographs above the 1km layer where storms will be rooted, the potential will exist for some elevated supercells capable of producing large hail as the primary threat initially. As instability increases through mid to late morning, surface based thunderstorms will begin increasingly likely. Hazards will likely shift from the hail threat to more of a damaging wind and isolated tornado threat. There is the chance for some isolated supercells ahead of a QLCS, but the main show will likely come from the QLCS itself as it bulldozes its way through the area. Forecast guidance has steadily sped up the forward progression of this, with the QLCS maturing as it approaches the I-65 corridor by late morning and exiting the forecast area no later than mid afternoon. Given a very strong 850mb jet of 50 to 55kts the QLCS will probably be able to transfer down damaging wind gusts in excess of 60mph. Hodographs start to elongate and lose curvature with time, but ample low level SRH approaching 300m2/s2 should allow for at least a low end threat for a tornado or two within the QLCS itself and in association with any supercells ahead of it. Prior to the frontal passage there is the expectation for frequent strong wind gusts above 40mph areawide outside of any showers or storms. This is thanks to the aforementioned strong low level winds above the surface between 925 and 850mb in conjunction with adequate mixing of the boundary layer. Given this expectation, a Wind Advisory has been issued for the entire area starting around daybreak and running through mid afternoon. In the wake of the front, attention turns to bitterly cold temperatures. Overnight lows fall into the upper teens to middle 20`s for most locations, but winds remain strong allowing for very cold wind chills in the 5 to 15 degree range areawide. An Extreme Cold Warning has been issued beginning at midnight tomorrow night through late Monday morning. The expectation is for bitterly cold temperatures to remain in the area Monday night as lows dip into the middle to upper teens for most locations. Winds will be a little more relaxed as high pressure starts to settle in, but wind chills will still fall into the 8 to 15 degree range. Given this, have opted to go forth with another Extreme Cold Watch for Monday night into mid Tuesday morning. Cold weather will remain throughout the rest of the week as lows fall into the lower to middle 20`s each night with wind chills persisting in the teens to lower 20`s each night. Cold Weather Advisories will likely be needed each night throughout the rest of the week. Afternoon highs will remain cold in the 30`s and 40`s Monday and middle 40`s to lower 50`s Tuesday through Friday. A High Risk of rip currents continues for AL and FL panhandle beaches through Sunday night. MM/25 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through daybreak, temporarily reducing flight category as they pass over any given location. IFR to LIFR ceilings continue across the area through the day today. A powerful cold front quickly transits the area this morning into early this afternoon. Strong, gusty winds can be expected ahead of and in association with the front, with frequent gusts upwards of 30 to 35 knots out of the south. Behind the front, winds rapidly shift out of the west to west-northwest sustained 15 to 20 knots gusting 25 to 30 knots. Strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible along and ahead of the front bringing the threat for damaging wind gusts upwards of 50 to 55 knots and the potential for a tornado or two. IFR ceilings will persist in the wake of the front Sunday afternoon into at least early Sunday evening. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Light to moderate southeasterly flow prior to daybreak quickly becomes strong southerly flow this morning. Winds switch to the northwest late this afternoon into the evening hours as a cold front moves through. A strong offshore flow develops tonight, gradually diminishing Monday night into Tuesday. Occasional gusts to gale force are possible mainly well offshore today into Monday evening. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through early Tuesday morning. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 67 60 72 24 / 60 80 100 20 Pensacola 67 62 73 27 / 30 50 90 50 Destin 67 61 71 31 / 10 30 90 70 Evergreen 65 56 72 24 / 40 80 100 30 Waynesboro 55 43 68 19 / 80 100 100 10 Camden 58 51 70 19 / 60 90 100 20 Crestview 68 58 73 27 / 10 40 90 60 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 3 PM CST Sunday for ALZ051>060- 261>266. Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Sunday night to noon CST Monday for ALZ051>060-261>266. Extreme Cold Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for ALZ051>060-261>266. High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266. FL...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 3 PM CST Sunday for FLZ201>206. Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Sunday night to noon CST Monday for FLZ201>206. Extreme Cold Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for FLZ201>206. High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 3 PM CST Sunday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079. Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Sunday night to noon CST Monday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. Extreme Cold Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to midnight CST Monday night for GMZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to midnight CST Monday night for GMZ633>636. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 7 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ650-670. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 7 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ655-675. && $$