Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 232335 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
635 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


00Z issuance...Isolated showers and storms over the area will
gradually diminish during the evening hours, then additional
convection develops near the coast overnight and spreads inland
during the morning and afternoon on Monday.  After considering
high resolution guidance and WPC, have opted to go with prevailing
showers beginning at 13Z Monday with tempo groups through mid
afternoon for embedded thunderstorms. IFR to MVFR conditions will
accompany the stronger showers and storms. Southeast to east winds
near 5 knots are expected overnight (potentially becoming calm
inland), then becoming southeast around 10 knots on Monday. /29


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will gradually come to an end this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. The combination of an inverted trough over
the central Gulf and shortwaves moving through the broad upper
trough to our west will maintain the chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms overnight, especially over the marine area and near
the coast. Deep layer moisture continues to increase on Monday with
precipitable water values climbing over 2 inches. These features
will combine to bring numerous showers and thunderstorms to the area
through the day. Coverage will increase near the coast during the
early morning before spreading inland during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Locally heavy rain will be the primary threat.
Temperatures will only be in the mid and upper 80s due to the
additional clouds and rain coverage. 13/JC

SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...The east-west
orientated deep layer ridging over the northern Gulf of Mexico
and deep south will persist through early Wednesday. The surface
ridge actually gets a little reinforcement over our area on
Tuesday as northeasterly flow around an area of low pressure
located off the SE Atlantic coast becomes better organized. This
will maintain the warm and moist low to mid level south to
southeast flow over our area through the short term period. This
deep moist layer and subtle shortwave energy aloft, combined with
daytime heating and instability will result in scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms both Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons, with scattered coverage (especially near the coast)
Monday night and Tuesday night. By Wednesday night, a cold front
will slowly be moving into the southeast states and toward the
forecast area, which will likely keep likely PoP`s over western
zones during the Wednesday night period. Storms will likely be
moving slowly, so locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Daytime
highs in the 80s, nighttime lows in the 70s. 12/DS

LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...The surface cold front
slowly advances toward the forecast area Thursday, becoming
stationary and lingering just north of perhaps over our far
northern counties through early Friday. Warm airmass south of the
front and associated moisture pooling along and south of the
frontal boundary will maintain the widespread showers and storms
on Thursday. The front washes out Friday through Sunday as high
pressure rebuilds over the region from the east. With this daily
convection becomes more scattered. Again, the nearly stationary
boundary and slow storm movement will again result in some
locally heavy rainfall, especially early in the long term period.
Little change in max/min temperatures expected. 12/DS

MARINE...Surface high pressure will continue from the western
Atlantic across the northern Gulf. This will maintain a light to
occasionally moderate east to southeast wind flow through early this
week. A more southerly wind flow develops by the middle of the week
as high pressure builds westward. 13/JC




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