Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 241750 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1250 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.MESOANALYST UPDATE /Now Through This Evening/...Focusing on
convective development within the next few hours, with stronger
storms beginning across eastern and coastal sections of the forecast
area, then developing further west and inland with time later this
afternoon. Showers will be possible areawide prior to the stronger
storm development. All storms should persist into the evening before
gradually diminishing in coverage with the loss of daytime
instability. Bottom line up front, a few of these storms may become
severe and pose a localized damaging wind threat.

Latest radar and satellite imagery shows a mesoscale convective
vortex (MCV) west of the Apalachicola River moving slowly westward
towards the western Florida Panhandle. This MCV will likely become a
focus for convection over the next few hours. Additionally, a
differential heating boundary across east central into south central
Alabama from earlier this morning, where low level stratus persisted
longer to the boundary`s east over eastern Alabama and western
Georgia, should also provide an earlier focus for storms during the
next few hours. Finally, additional early afternoon development
should occur along an inland penetrating seabreeze across coastal
sections of the western Florida Panhandle.

Gradually, additional storm development should occur further west
into coastal Alabama later this afternoon along the seabreeze, with
additional storms developing further inland along convective

Latest GOES 16 satellite imagery, supported by 12z regional sounding
analysis, shows ample low level moisture in place across much of the
area, with GOES 16 TPW product suggesting precipitable water values
ranging from 1.6 inland to almost 1.8 inches near the coast. Again,
much of this moisture is confined primarily to the lowest 2-3km of
the atmosphere. In the mid levels, latest water vapor imagery
suggests sufficient dry air present. SPC mesoanalysis as of 17z
suggests that MLCAPE values range between 2000-2500j/kg, with
SBCAPES ranging from 3500-4500j/kg. The mid level dry air is
supporting Downdraft CAPES in excess of 1100j/kg. This type of
environment is strongly suggestive of a favorable wet microburst
pattern. Therefore, localized damaging winds will be possible with
the strongest storms this afternoon and evening. In addition, with
weak atmospheric winds in place and sufficient PWATs approaching 1.8
inches, slow moving storms will be capable of localized heavy
rainfall and mainly nuisance type flooding of low lying vulnerable

The greatest convective coverage should remain near the coast and
across the eastern half of the forecast area. Further west, a
stronger mid level capping inversion and stronger ridging aloft may
tend to suppress coverage a bit. Storms that do develop should
gradually diminish in coverage and intensity later this evening.




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