386
FXUS64 KMOB 281728
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1228 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Upper troughing remains in control of the forecast through early
next week with several shortwaves rounding the base of the trough.
Our first impactful shortwave moves across the region tonight into
Friday, with isolated to scattered rain chances today over southeast
Mississippi and southwestern Alabama increasing to scattered to
potentially locally numerous as we head into late tonight and Friday
for much of the area. Temperatures will remain warm today in the
upper 80`s to lower 90`s with lows tonight in the middle to upper
60`s for most locations and lower 70`s nearer the coast.

Heading into the weekend things begin to get a bit more complex as
we start to get on the backside of the main parent trough and the
series of shortwaves continue to move across the region around the
base of the trough. This will likely mean Saturday will be the
wetter day of the weekend featuring numerous showers and storms
before a weak cold front moves through the area. Sunday will likely
feature more scattered rain and thunderstorm chances as the boundary
remains near the coast and transient shortwaves continue push across
the area. Heading into next week the forecast becomes complex as
surface high pressure settles into the eastern U.S. with Cold Air
Damming (CAD) trying to be the dominant feature stretching
southwestward across the Carolinas and AL/GA. The biggest question
mark right now is how a surface low pressure develops along the
remnant front draped from the far northeastern gulf into the
southwest Atlantic. This will dictate rain chances across the area,
with a low closer to us giving better rain chances and low further
away meaning lesser rain chances. For now, will continue to
advertise isolated to scattered coverage of showers and storms for
any given day next week.

Afternoon highs will be cooler than normal for much of the forecast
period, with Friday into Saturday being the coolest given extensive
cloud cover and rain coverage. Highs Friday into Saturday will be in
the upper 70`s to lower 80`s for most locations, with middle 80`s
nearer the coast. Lower to middle 80`s for highs persist Sunday
into Monday, warming back to near normal in the middle to upper
80`s by mid week. Lows Friday night through Sunday night lows will
be the warmest in the middle to upper 60`s over the interior and
lower 70`s nearer the coast. A reinforcing shot of drier air
should help lows cool a bit more for each night next week with
temperatures falling into the middle to upper 60`s for most
locations. A Low risk of rip currents remains in place through
early next week for Alabama beaches, with a Moderate risk of rip
currents developing for the western Florida Panhandle beaches.
MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

VFR conditions prevail over the area through the early evening
hours, then a MVFR/IFR ceiling develops west of I-65 overnight and
spreads into the remainder of the area Friday morning. Isolated to
scattered convection will be possible along and west of I-65 this
afternoon, diminishes this evening, then coverage begins to
increase overnight with scattered to numerous showers and storms
anticipated for the entire area Friday morning. IFR conditions
will be possible with the stronger storms. Variable winds around 5
knots this afternoon become a light northerly flow tonight, then a
northeast flow around 5 knots follows for Friday morning. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

A light to moderate easterly to southerly flow prevails today and
Friday. A weak cold front shifts offshore Saturday afternoon, with a
light to occasionally moderate northeasterly to easterly flow
prevailing for Sunday through Wednesday. No impacts are
anticipated other than higher winds and seas near storms. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      69  83  70  83  70  84  70  82 /  30  60  50  80  30  50  30  50
Pensacola   73  84  73  85  72  87  72  83 /  20  40  50  80  40  50  40  50
Destin      74  85  73  85  73  87  73  84 /  10  40  40  80  50  50  40  50
Evergreen   66  82  67  86  67  87  67  86 /  30  50  50  70  20  30  20  30
Waynesboro  64  77  67  82  67  84  65  83 /  60  70  60  60  20  40  20  30
Camden      66  79  67  82  67  83  67  82 /  40  50  50  60  20  30  20  30
Crestview   68  83  68  85  68  86  68  84 /  10  40  40  80  30  50  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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