334
FXUS64 KMOB 121733
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1133 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1133 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

 - Patchy fog may develop overnight mainly over interior areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1040 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

An upper trof over the interior eastern states moves off into the
western Atlantic through Thursday as an upper ridge progresses
into the central CONUS. Some patchy fog is possible late tonight
into early Thursday morning mainly over interior areas with clear
skies and light winds promoting radiative cooling. The upper ridge
weakens while continuing into the eastern states on Friday after
which another upper trof advances across the northern Plains and
into much of the eastern states through Sunday. An upper low
meanwhile breaks down to a shortwave trof while swinging into the
southwestern states on Sunday, but past this point there continues
to be a fair amount of uncertainty with the strength of this
feature before it ultimately ejects off towards the Great Lakes
region. This pattern brings a trailing cold front into central
MS/AL on Sunday before stalling, then a surface low develops over
the southern or northern Plains Sunday night, depending on what
transpires with the shortwave trof. There is a lot of uncertainty
past this point, with the surface low either moving into the
northeastern states through Wednesday or more quickly moving
across the southeastern states Monday night into Tuesday.

A dry forecast continues for the area through Monday night as deep
layer moisture remains limited despite the frontal boundary moving
into the area on Sunday. Considering the uncertainty with the
pattern, have gone with slight chance to chance pops for Tuesday
generally along and west of I-65, then slight chance pops follow
for Wednesday over much of southeast Mississippi and a small
portion of interior southwest Alabama. A low risk of rip currents
is expected through Monday. Lows tonight range from the mid 40s
well inland to the lower/mid 50s near the coast, then milder
temperatures are expected by Saturday night when lows range from
the lower 50s well inland to around 60 at the coast. Overnight
lows trend a bit warmer by Tuesday night to range from the mid 50s
well inland to the lower 60s near the coast. Highs on Thursday
will be mostly in the lower/mid 70s then trend to mostly around 80
going into early next week. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through noon Thursday. Southwesterly
winds around 5-10 this afternoon will become calm to light and
variable tonight into Thursday morning. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1040 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

A light southwesterly to westerly flow this evening turns more
northwesterly to westerly overnight into Thursday. Light winds
gradually turn easterly on Friday and southerly on Saturday. A
westerly to southwesterly flow follows for Sunday then becomes
southerly on Monday. No impacts are anticipated through Monday.
/29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  52  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   69  55  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      69  55  73  55 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   72  45  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  72  47  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      69  45  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   70  45  75  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$