024
FXUS64 KMOB 071138
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
638 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

 - Strong storms are possible this afternoon with strong, locally
   damaging microburst winds being the main threat.

 - Moderate risk of rip currents Tuesday and Wednesday for
   coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

 - Peak heat index increases to around 105-107 tomorrow with the
   Heat Risk rising into the Moderate to Major category.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Performed a brief gridded update this morning to align the
forecast with the latest short-term guidance, observations, and
ongoing trends.

Conditions remain quiet overall early this morning, but that may
change heading into the afternoon. Recent REFS and HRRR trends
continue to suggest convective initiation later today, generally
along and north of the I-10 corridor. While overall coverage
should remain scattered, REFS member clustering shows greater
confidence in convective coverage across central and western
portions of the area, generally within the SPC Marginal Risk. That
said, a few locally strong to isolated severe storms will be
possible nearly anywhere across the forecast area today.

Diving a little deeper, a developing sea breeze boundary late
this morning into early afternoon may serve as an initial focus
for development, especially where low-level confluence becomes
maximized. From there, subsequent outflow boundary interactions
may lead to a domino effect of additional convective
development. Any boundary collisions could quickly support
localized stronger updrafts. RAP forecast soundings show a well-
mixed and deep boundary layer, supporting efficient downward
momentum transfer. Additionally, noticeable dry air near the 700
mb level should contribute to DCAPE values around 1200-1400 J/kg.
As a result, the primary concern with any stronger storms will be
damaging wind gusts, driven by water loading and downward momentum
transport. Activity could linger a tad going into the 00-02Z
time-frame, especially as updrafts remain rooted to lingering
boundaries but should dissipate after sunset. Otherwise,
temperatures remain on track with no further adjustments needed.

Additionally, did introduce a Moderate Risk for rip currents now
into Tuesday night and Wednesday due to persistent easterly flow
at around 10-15kts across coastal and nearshore waters, but should
relax going into the later evening/overnight hours on Wednesday.
KLG

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Hot and stormy weather conditions are once again expected this
afternoon across the region. Afternoon temperatures soar into the
middle to upper 90`s, hottest over interior areas west of the I-65
corridor. Most of the area should see afternoon dewpoints mix out
into the upper 60`s to lower 70`s inland, helping to temper heat
indices in the 100 to 107 range, with isolated spots nearing or
exceeding 108. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will
likely develop during the afternoon hours, especially for areas
south of the Highway 84 corridor. Dry air aloft will help bolster
thunderstorm downdrafts, with any storms capable of producing
strong, gusty winds. The lack of wind shear across the area should
keep the strong to severe storm threat limited. The deepest cores
and storm mergers will have the greatest propensity for producing
strong, locally damaging microbursts.

Upper ridging gradually spreads eastward across the region with
deep layer easterly flow becoming established Tuesday into
Wednesday. After this, ridging breaks down into late week as upper
troughing becomes established across the eastern CONUS. This
should keep us with a somewhat active pattern as subtle shortwaves
continue to ride the periphery of the ridge and upper troughing
gradually becomes more dominant. The expectation is for scattered
to locally numerous showers and storms each afternoon, with daily
highs in the lower to middle 90`s. Similar to early in the period,
any storms may be able to produce gusty to locally damaging winds
and heavy rainfall. Overnight temperatures stay steady state in
the lower to middle 70`s.

The rip current risk remains Low for Florida/Alabama beaches
throughout the period with the exception of Tuesday where a
Moderate risk is now forecast. This is thanks to stronger easterly
flow that becomes established across the area the first half of
the day Tuesday. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Mainly quiet early this morning with VFR prevailing, will monitor
for another round of SCT TSRA/SHRA developing early afternoon on
today, with periodic impacts to terminals possible resulting in
lower VIS/CIGs from heavy rain, gusty, erratic downburst winds all
leading to lower periods of flight categories. Otherwise, VFR
outside of this activity and will come to an end around sunset.
KLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

A generally light southwest to west flow prevails today. Light to
moderate easterly flow becomes established Tuesday and Wednesday.
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow returns for the rest of
the week into the upcoming weekend. Seas generally remain around 1
to 2 feet this week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
remain possible during the morning hours each day with the
potential to produce gusty winds and waterspouts. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  90  74  89 /  40  40  10  70
Pensacola   76  88  76  88 /  40  40  50  70
Destin      76  88  76  87 /  30  50  50  70
Evergreen   71  91  71  91 /  30  20  10  50
Waynesboro  73  93  71  93 /  30  10  10  40
Camden      72  91  72  91 /  30  10   0  40
Crestview   72  90  72  90 /  20  40  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$