292
FXUS64 KMOB 041135
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
635 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Areas of dense fog has developed early this morning, bringing
LIFR conditions to much of the area. Fog is expected to dissipate
in a few hours and VFR conditions should generally prevail through
the evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also possible
this afternoon, mainly for inland areas. Expect brief reductions
in visibility and ceilings in some of the heavier activity.
Another round of fog is possible late tonight across much of the
region. /96

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 500 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 500 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Satellite nighttime microphysics and area observations show that
patchy to areas of fog has developed once again across the area
early this morning. The best coverage (and lowest visibilities)
seems to be confined to portions of Baldwin county and the western
FL Panhandle, where skies are more clear. Elsewhere, mid to upper
clouds have been helping to keep coverage rather limited and
overall visibilities are generally above 3SM. However, upper
clouds over southeast MS and southwest AL appear to be thinning
out, setting the expectation that fog will increase in coverage
and density in these areas over the next couple of hours. Because
of this, a Dense Fog Advisory is now in effect through 9AM CDT for
much of the area, except for portions of south central Alabama
(where mid level clouds remain rather prominent) and along the
immediate coast. Fog will begin dissipating by around 9AM.

A general zonal to northwesterly flow pattern aloft is expected
through to continue through the period as an upper ridge builds over
the western Gulf. Two weak shortwaves, embedded within this flow
aloft, look to move overhead through the period... the first this
afternoon into the early evening hours, and the other late Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night. At the surface, large high pressure
over the western Atlantic allows for southerly winds to continue
through the period. Daytime heating, in combination with weak
forcing from the shortwaves aloft, and ample moisture in place from
the persistent southerly flow, should allow for isolated to
scattered showers and storms to develop each afternoon, primarily
over interior areas. Weak shear in place will help to keep
convection disorganized and pulse-like in nature, likely developing
off the sea breeze boundary at first, and spreading via outflow
boundary collisions. As is the case for this type of convection,
cannot rule out one or two stronger storms that would be capable of
producing gusty downdraft winds.

Temperatures will remain quite warm through the period, with highs
ranging from the low 80s along the coast to the mid to upper 80s
inland. Lows tonight will only drop into the mid to upper 60s. A
Moderate risk of rip currents continues through the weekend.
Additional fog development is once again possible tonight across
much of the area. Fog may become dense in spots so we will monitor
the need for another Dense Fog Advisory. /96

SHORT and LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 500 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Sunday night into Monday, upper ridging begins to build across the
region, amplifying further on Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper
trough moves into the Plains states. Will still have a chance for
showers and storms over our interior zones on Monday before the
ridge becomes firmly established and another shortwave aloft
moves east across the area, but dry conditions will then prevail
Tuesday through Wednesday with the increased ridging. By
Thursday, upper flow becomes more zonal and a cold front will be
approaching the region from the west, and with continued southerly
flow bringing increased moisture, we will again be looking at a
chance of showers and storms over interior portions of the
forecast area again by Thursday afternoon through Friday. The
front will be getting close to our forecast area on Friday, so
PoPs will probably be highest that day, but still only about 30
percent or so. The front should move east across our area sometime
late Friday night.

The temperature forecast will be on the rise through the first
half of the longer term forecast period as subsidence from the
upper ridging increases. Highs on Monday will primarily still be
in the mid to upper 80s across the area, but on Tuesday look for
upper 80s and lower 90s. On Wednesday and Thursday max
temperatures will be even warmer with highs mainly in the lower
90s, except mid to upper 80s at the coast. Heat indices will climb
into the mid to upper 90s for many locations each afternoon Tuesday
through Thursday, which could lead to heat stress concerns. Still
in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the area on Friday as well.
Overnight lows mainly in the 60s each night, Sunday through
Tuesday (lower 70s along the coast), then primarily in the low to
mid 70s across the entire area Wednesday and Thursday nights.
DS/12

MARINE...
Issued at 500 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A light onshore flow will persist through the weekend and
then slowly increase to moderate by the middle of next week.
Slightly higher winds are expected during the afternoon hours near
the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation.
Seas offshore will gradually increase to around 3 feet by the early
to middle part of the week. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      86  68  86  69  85  70  86  71 /  20  10  10  10  20   0  10   0
Pensacola   84  70  83  70  82  71  83  73 /  10   0  10   0  10   0  10   0
Destin      82  70  82  71  82  73  82  74 /  10   0  10   0  10   0  10   0
Evergreen   89  65  89  64  87  66  89  68 /  40  20  20  10  30   0  10   0
Waynesboro  88  64  88  66  87  67  89  69 /  40  20  30  10  30   0  20   0
Camden      88  65  88  65  85  66  89  68 /  30  20  30  20  30  10  20   0
Crestview   89  64  89  64  87  66  88  68 /  20  10  10   0  20   0  10   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ051>053-
     059-261>264.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for FLZ201-203-
     205.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ067-075-
     076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob