319
FXUS64 KMOB 280556
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1256 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1254 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

  - Extreme Heat Warning in effect for coastal areas on Tuesday
    with a Heat Advisory for remainder of the area. Additional
    Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are possible Wednesday.

  - High Risk of rip currents is expected to return midweek for
    our Florida beaches.

  - Daily afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances increase in
    the middle to latter part of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

An upper trof oriented near/along the East Coast begins to amplify
Wednesday followed by a significant expansion of the upper trof
Friday into Saturday to encompass the eastern half of the CONUS. A
large upper ridge centered over the central states which also
extends into the north central Gulf coast begins to pull back
from the region on Wednesday, followed by a retreat to the western
half of the CONUS later in the week. A surface low located well
to the north brings a weak cold front into the forecast area on
Wednesday which then meanders over the area through Thursday. The
weak boundary may persist over the area on Friday before
dissipating, with a surface low meanwhile approaching from the
Plains and is anticipated to move into the eastern states this
weekend. A series of shortwaves and the sea breeze are anticipated
to support some convective development on Tuesday and have gone
with slight chance to chance pops mainly for the coastal counties.
Slight chance to chance pops follow for the entire area on
Wednesday, then rain chances trend up to chance to likely pops
for Thursday. Mostly chance to possibly likely pops follow for
Friday, then trend to likely to categorical pops by Sunday.

The main concern for the forecast continues to be dangerously hot
conditions Tuesday and for Wednesday as well. High temperatures
on Tuesday will be mostly in the upper 90s to around 100 with
similar values for Wednesday except that highs will probably be
limited to the mid 90s well inland. Heat index values on Tuesday
mostly range from 108 to 112 except for higher values of 113 near
the coast. Heat index values on Wednesday look similar though
will probably be limited to around 105 over the inland portions of
south central Alabama. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect
from 10 am to 9 pm Tuesday for areas near the coast while a Heat
Advisory is in effect for the remainder of the area. Another
Extreme Heat Warning will likely become necessary for coastal
areas on Wednesday as well, with another Heat Advisory for much of
the remainder of the area. Highs moderate on Thursday to the
lower to mid 90s which will probably keep heat index values below
Heat Advisory criteria of 108, then highs gradually trend to the
upper 80s by Sunday as rain chances steadily increase. A low risk
of rip currents is expected for Alabama beaches on Tuesday with a
moderate risk for western Florida panhandle beaches. For Wednesday
through Friday, a high risk of rip currents is expected for the
western Florida panhandle beaches while a moderate risk is
anticipated for the Alabama beaches. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the period. However,
there is now a 20-40% chance of a showers and storms over coastal
counties this afternoon. Any heavier activity may be accompanied
by brief drops in visbys to IFR or lower and gusty winds. A
localized microburst or two is possible. Otherwise, expect west to
northwest winds today at around 5-10 knots, turning more
southwesterly near the coast with the sea breeze in the afternoon.
JGC/98

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

A diurnal wind pattern is expected early in the week with a light to
moderate northwesterly flow early each morning turning westerly to
occasionally southwesterly through the afternoon and evening. Light
to moderate westerly flow becomes established the latter half of the
week. Storm coverage will increase by mid week with winds and waves
locally higher near any storms. Small craft should exercise
caution over the gulf through much of the week. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      99  77  98  76 /  20  10  40  50
Pensacola   98  81  97  79 /  20   0  40  50
Destin      94  82  95  80 /  20   0  40  60
Evergreen   98  76  96  73 /  10  10  30  40
Waynesboro 100  77  98  74 /   0   0  20  40
Camden      98  77  93  73 /   0   0  30  40
Crestview  100  78  99  75 /  20   0  50  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ051>060-261>264.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201-203-205.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$