642
AWUS01 KWNH 050946
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-051400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0322
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
545 AM EDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Areas affected...Northern Missouri...Southern and Eastern Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050945Z - 051400Z

SUMMARY...Additional areas of locally backbuilding and training
convection will continue to track across portions of northern
Missouri and to a lesser extent southern and eastern Iowa through
the mid-morning hours. Localized rainfall rates as high as 1.5+
inches per hour falling on locally moist/sensitive grounds will
maintain a threat for some additional flash flooding, but
conditions should gradually improve by later this morning.

DISCUSSION...A wave of low pressure and associated mid-level vort
centered over southwest Iowa continues to track gradually off to
the northeast along a well-defined surface trough that has some
weak frontal characteristics. This continues to facilitate a
mature cold-topped convective complex across northern Missouri,
with a more elongated and broken axis of convection seen
downstream across southern and eastern Iowa.

The thermodynamic profile has stabilized a bit relative to earlier
in the night, but there continues to be a nose of MUCAPE values on
the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg across northern Missouri and
southern Iowa which is being driven by a persistent southwest
low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kt. This coupled with the high PW
environment with values near 1.75 inches continues to favor
rainfall rates reaching as high as 1.5+ inches/hour.

The 06Z consensus of hires CAMs suggest a gradual decline in
convective organization and intensity going toward and after 12Z
this morning which will be largely driven by decreasing CAPE and
eventually a decrease in the low-level jet, but there will still
be at least a few more hours of locally heavy rainfall. This will
include some concerns for additional backbuilding and
cell-training across portions of northern Missouri in particular.
Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3+ inches will be possible.

As a result, some additional areas of flash flooding may occur
across northern Missouri, with the threat overall a bit lower over
southern and especially eastern Iowa where the antecedent
conditions are not as sensitive.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...EAX...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   42689099 42399012 40999061 40129143 39619229
            39389360 39619490 39919526 40249513 40569434
            40999333 41809226