900
AWUS01 KWNH 301806
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-310005-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1034
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
205 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Areas affected...southeastern MM into far western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301805Z - 310005Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over
southeastern MM into far western TX over the next few hours. Slow
movement and brief backbuilding/training will pose a flash flood
threat from 1-2 in/hr rain rates through 00Z (7 PM CDT).

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery at 1745Z showed building
cumulus over the Sacramento Mountains with mostly clear skies
surrounding much of NM into western TX. Moisture profiles are a
bit higher for southeastern NM into western TX compared to
yesterday and the 12Z soundings from ELP and MAF showed PW values
near the 95th percentile for the end of August. The region resided
on the northern/northwestern edge of a mid to upper-level ridge
centered over northern Mexico into TX, with 0-6 km AGL layer winds
only about 5 kt (slightly weaker into the Big Bend region of TX),
which will result in slow storm motions.

Continued heating is expected to allow MLCAPE values to rise into
the 500-1500 J/kg range by 21Z across southeastern NM and
southward into western TX. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop within the areas of higher terrain first, and then advance
eastward into southern portions of the southern High Plains where
surface dewpoints ranged from the lower to upper 60s. At the
surface, winds had an easterly component on the cool side of a
stationary front which draped westward and then northward through
far western TX which should add an upslope component to the setup.
A few areas of flash flooding from 1-2 inches of rain in an hour
or less will be possible from portions of southeastern NM into the
Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of TX through 00Z.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   34850481 34210342 33390287 31750284 30050267
            29100287 29010374 29480473 30520547 31210655
            32070690 34390642