245
AWUS01 KWNH 071955
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-080030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1168
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 PM EDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Areas affected...Northeast KY...Southern OH...Western WV...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072000Z - 080030Z

SUMMARY...A few more hours of training moderate showers with
ending burst of intense rain near surface low, pose longer term
flooding concerns with isolated rapid rise/flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows core of elongating southern
stream shortwave continues to advance much faster than the
low-level/surface features into increasingly confluent flow in the
Upper Ohio River Valley.  This vertical tilting further displaces
deep layer moisture structure as total PWat values continue to
reduce from 2" toward 1.75".  Additionally, much of the area has
become stable with limited <250 J/kg of CAPE.  However, the warm
conveyor and moisture flux convergence remains solid and more
importantly elongated along the ill-defined boundary across NE KY
into the Ohio River.  Oblique ascent from 25-35kts of 850mb
southwesterly flow to the boundary more WSW to ENE and larger
scale downstream divergence continues to broaden the moderate
precipitation shield.

Rates of .25-.5"/hr continue within the broad moderate shield
expanding as far east as the middle slopes of the Allegheny
Plateau.  However, the western edge of the warm conveyor belt has
an associated surface low intersecting the boundary near KLEX,
providing stronger convergence overlapped with modest mid-level
drying has allowed for some conditional instability to reach
500-750 J/kg.  As such, GOES-E 10.3um shows some solid convective
cores still cooling below -60C, suggesting an ending punch to the
training moderate showers with a cell or two capable of
1.25-1.5"/hr.  So with 1-1.5" capped off with an additional 1-1.5"
in about an hour, may result in a streak of additional 2-3" across
Northeast/Eastern KY into W WV before fully weakening in favor of
stronger forcing/backing flow to the northern stream frontal zone
dropping in across central IND/OH.

While the area has been dry, natural lower FFG values of
1-1.5"/1hr are less likely to be exceeded but 3-6hr values of
1.5-3" have a slightly higher potential.  So the rapid rise
flooding may be a bit more tempered, but FLASH unit stream flow
values across much of central KY have been between 400-650 cfs/smi
and even a slightly reduced value across the rugged terrain across
NE KY into far S OH/W WV, are likely to remain above 300 cfs and
suggest some flooding conditions are possible through the
remainder of the evening hours.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   39318159 38988102 38468101 38018128 37698206
            37628247 37608353 37798422 38308467 38798423
            39078336