148
AWUS01 KWNH 180614
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-181016-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0181
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
213 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Areas affected...central/eastern KS into western MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 180612Z - 181016Z

Summary...Flash flooding is likely to focus in one or two
locations from central to eastern KS into western MO through 10Z.
Training will likely result in 1-2 in/hr rates (locally higher)
with additional totals over 4 inches possible through 10Z on an
isolated basis.

Discussion...06Z radar imagery showed that an axis of elevated
thunderstorms extended from near LYO, ENE into northwestern MO
near MCI, just north and west of an outflow boundary. Training of
thunderstorms in central KS has resulted in MRMS-derived rainfall
of 3 to 9 inches over the past 6 hours from southern Rush County
into northwestern Ottawa County, though some of that could be high
due to hail contamination. However, there was at least one
Wunderground PWS with 7.26" to the southwest of Lincoln ending
0555Z.

Current satellite trends in IR imagery showed the coldest cloud
tops were slowly shifting east, coinciding with an area of strong
upper level jet induced divergence and diffluence tied to a
strengthening jet max extending from the west-central KS/NE border
into the lower Northern Plains.

A strong southerly low level jet of 50 to 65+ kt was seen in VAD
wind plots at 850 mb from northern OK into southern KS, lifting
atop the outflow boundary, with deeper layer wind vectors
supporting SW to NE training at times. Steep mid-level lapse rates
of 8-9 C/km were observed in 00Z soundings at OKC, TOP and SGF,
supporting MUCAPE values between 3000 and 4000 J/kg. Veering of
the low level jet through 10Z is forecast, as the outflow boundary
likely continues to advance southeastward, supporting continued
elevated thunderstorms with areas of training.

While increased convective inhibition with southward extent may
limit how far south convection will reach, inhibition for
locations farther east is forecast to remain weak. Therefore,
while flash flooding is not expected to be widespread, areas of
training are likely to focus high rain rates and focused flash
flooding from central to eastern KS into far western MO through
10Z.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   40009416 39409365 38369394 37779489 37539666
            37369932 38089966 38849841 39509698 39779589