Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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AWUS01 KWNH 162147
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-170330-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0711
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
546 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025
Areas affected...Eastern Wisconsin into Michigan
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 162143Z - 170330Z
Summary...Organized thunderstorms associated with low pressure
over eastern WI will continue to develop as they shift over Lake
Michigan through the early evening. The threat for flash flooding
continues over the northern LP later this evening. Continued flash
flooding is likely in Wisconsin yet this afternoon and possible in
Michigan overnight.
Discussion...Potent low responsible for severe and heavy
thunderstorms over southern WI today continues to church ENE over
eastern WI late this afternoon. MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and PW of
1.8 to 2" will allow for continued development. The cooler waters
of Lake Michigan are often a disruption to ongoing development,
but in this case the low is strong enough to likely overcome any
limitation.
Flash flood guidance is higher in MI, but there has been some
afternoon convection there that will make for localized antecedent
vulnerability along with urban areas. This activity should
continue overnight, so a follow up for more of Michigan is
possible.
Jackson
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...APX...GRB...GRR...MKX...
ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...
LAT...LON 45748417 44998347 43598493 43168628 42868844
43698876 44088905 44478850 44898713 45358526