505
AWUS01 KWNH 162021
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-170130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0709
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
420 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162016Z - 170130Z

Summary...Threat of flash flooding increases into the evening as
heavy rain bands develop ahead of AL93 which is shifting west
along the Florida Panhandle. 2 to 3"/hour rainfall rates are
possible in these bands which have a repeating threat. This newer
development should be over both the vulnerable to flooding Mobile
and New Orleans metros.

Discussion...AL93 continues a westward track along the Florida
Panhandle with most rainfall so far today left of the track over
the Gulf. However, active convection is developing along a trough
north of the low center which should wrap around through the coast
ahead of the track rest of this afternoon. PW peaks around 2.4"
along the FL Panhandle with 2" extending up that trough axis and
ahead over far southeast LA. The developing activity should occur
much in the way it did yesterday ahead of the low over the Big
Bend while the low center was over the Peninsula. Light mean layer
flow will keep motion slow. Given the high moisture and
instability (SBCAPE 3000+ J/kg), rainfall rates of 2 to 3"/hr are
likely. The high FFG in this area may limit the flash flood
concern into the afternoon to vulnerable metro areas such as NOLA
and Mobile. The threat may reach Baton Rouge by evening and is
included in this message. Flash flooding is considered possible.
Further issuances overnight are possible.

Jackson

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   31358779 31318651 30088691 28918924 29079110
            30509142 30788943