906
AWUS01 KWNH 020003
FFGMPD
TXZ000-020600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1426
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
802 PM EDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Areas affected...East Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020001Z - 020600Z

SUMMARY...Swath of heavy thunderstorms persist over eastern Texas
rest of the evening before diminishing. Hourly rainfall to 2.5"
continue over similar areas which could lead to localized flash
flooding, including into western portions of the Houston metro
area.

DISCUSSION...Heavy thunderstorms continue to develop along a
surface trough over inland portions of eastern Texas. Tropical
moisture continues to surge through the area downstream of a
trough over the southern Plains. PW are around 2.4", there is an
instability gradient on the east side of the trough to around 2500
J/kg into the western Houston suburbs, and onshore flow continues
to converge on the trough, aiding forcing. New development
continues to drift east, where FFG is high - over 3"/hr.
Therefore, flash flooding should be limited to sensitive areas.

Recent RRFS runs are quicker to kill off activity while HRRR runs
keep robust convection for a few more hours. Scattered new growth
is apparent in IR satellite imagery, so a solution similar to
recent HRRRs with an additional 3-5" are probably decent. Flash
flooding is considered possible given how high the FFG is.

This event should quickly diminish around around 06Z, so
subsequent discussions may not be necessary.

Jackson

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   32309528 32149425 31109440 29919539 28929638
            28859784 30059736 32039597