390
AWUS01 KWNH 190907
FFGMPD
KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-191400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1087
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
505 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...Eastern KS...Central to Southeast MO...Southwest
IL...Far Western KY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190905Z - 191400Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact
areas of eastern KS through central MO early this morning, with
eventually areas closer to the Lower OH Valley seeing some heavy
rainfall potential as well. Some cell-training concerns will
persist, and this will maintain a threat for flash flooding given
high rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
radar imagery shows an axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms
with some cell-training impacting areas of northeast KS down
through central MO. The activity continues to be driven largely by
the ejection of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse over the central
Plains which is interacting with an elevated instability gradient
along and north of a warm front lifting gradually northeastward
ahead of a surface low center over southeast KS.

MUCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg are noted in close proximity to
the axis of convection, with PWs across the region are 1.75 to 2.0
inches. A low-level jet remains persistent over the area with
values of 40+ kts aimed toward eastern KS through central MO.

Speed convergence associated with the low-level jet coupled with
the thermodynamic environment and about 40 to 50 kts of effective
bulk shear should help sustain the convective threat through at
least the early morning hours. GOES Proxy Visible satellite
imagery shows an agitated CU/TCU field extending back a little
farther west into areas of east-central KS. Steeper mid-level
lapse rates associated with an EML are impinging on this area, and
the latest GLM/LightningCast trend data shows an uptick in
convective potential across eastern KS that suggests new
developing areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms over the next
few hours.

Alignment of the ongoing convective activity with the deeper layer
mean flow will continue to support areas of cell-training. In
time, the larger scale convective mass should also begin to impact
downstream areas of southeast MO, southwest IL and possibly even
far western KY by mid-morning. Rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2.5
inches/hour will likely continue with the stronger storms over the
next few hours, with some additional spotty storm totals of 3 to 4
inches possible.

Expect at least some potential for additional areas of flash
flooding over the next several hours as this larger scale axis of
convection continues off generally off to the east.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...PAH...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   39369548 39149307 38679079 38128911 37578816
            36988835 36748921 37289128 37879374 38359591
            38629724 39149713