431
FXUS63 KMPX 061854
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
154 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slow moving thunderstorms may pose a risk for flooding across
  southwestern Minnesota through this evening.

- Southeasterly winds are expected to become gusty tomorrow
  ahead of an approaching cold front. This will also bring our
  next chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms late
  Monday into Tuesday.

- Slightly cooler temperatures are on the horizon with rain
  chances returning late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall continue across southwestern
Minnesota early this afternoon as a shortwave comes across the top
of the central CONUS ridge. Areas along and south of the Minnesota
River from roughly Granite Falls to Mankato have received 1-2" of
rain thanks to nearly stationary storms that continue to bubble up
without really going anywhere. The bulk of the heaviest rain has
remained just outside of the CWA into far southwestern Minnesota and
northern Iowa. A Flood Watch has been issued for our two
southwestern-most counties in collaboration with the Sioux Falls and
Des Moines offices. Elsewhere over the past hour or so, there`s been
an uptick in shower and thunderstorms further north towards I-94.
These also seem pretty pulse-y much like the ones to the south
and are expected to diminish by this evening. Storms are not
expected to make it much further east than they are currently with
ample dry air in the low/mid levels. This is apparent when
looking at the difference in PWATS from eastern Minnesota
(1.3"ish) to western Minnesota (1.7 to 1.9"ish). CAMs have
struggled with the evolution of the ongoing storms most of the
day due to the chaotic storm motion (or lack of), but the
general consensus is that precip remains to the west of a line
from roughly St. Cloud to Mankato.

Following today`s showers and storms, a deepening low across the
Dakotas will move into southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan late
Monday. In response, southeast winds are expected to become
breezy tomorrow with gusts around 30 MPH ahead of a cold front.
This front is expected to sweep across Minnesota Monday evening
into Tuesday, bringing our next chance for showers and storms.
Northern Minnesota will likely see the bulk of the (much needed)
QPF, but central Minnesota down through the Twin Cities into
southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin may still end up
with around an inch of rain by the time the system moves out
Tuesday. Wednesday looks to be the coolest day of the period
with highs in the low to mid 70s under strong CAA. This will
likely make for another breezy day with northwest winds gusting
to around 30 MPH. The remainder of the work week looks mainly
dry with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Looking ahead to
next weekend, a pattern shift is likely on the way with the
arrival of a series of troughs. This will lead to an uptick in
rain chances and more seasonable temperatures for mid September.
Beyond next weekend, there seems to be agreement among
ensembles that highs in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and
50s will become more and more common as the fall equinox
approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Thunderstorms across southwestern Minnesota have good a good job
of staying just outside the 10 mile range rings for KRWF and
KMKT early this afternoon. KRWF has the best chance of seeing a
storm, so have added a TEMPO for the next few hours. Decided to
stick with PROB30 for KMKT since hi-res models really struggle
to get convection that far east. Elsewhere, low cigs have been
prevailing with IFR slowly getting back to MVFR territory.
Current thinking is that VFR conditions will return and prevail
from this evening through the end of the period. Winds look to
remain southeasterly and will increase by tomorrow morning ahead
of an approaching front.

KMSP...MVFR cigs remain possible for the next hour or so. All
hi-res models have precip falling apart before it can make it to
KMKT, so the forecast remains dry. Southeast winds increase
tomorrow with gusts of 20-25kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...SHRA/MVFR likely with chc TSRA early. Clearing late. Wind
S 10-15kts bcmg W.
WED...VFR. Wind WNW 15G25kts.
THU...VFR. Wind W 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for Martin-Watonwan.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...Dye