223
FXUS63 KMPX 160756
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
256 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds as high as 40-50mph today.

- Cooler weather continues this weekend into next week.

- Next chance for rain arrives Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Satellite imagery shows an impressive system across multiple
channels including IR, water vapor, and nighttime microphysics as
the system which brought our severe weather on Thursday continues to
churn over the region. Water vapor imagery shows just how far the
cold front has moved since the afternoon as the angle of the front
has shifted to being WNW to ESE with clear skies across most of
Wisconsin as the upper level low remains occluded this far into the
system`s life cycle. Due to the low pressure center being stacked
underneath the occlusion over northwest Minnesota by this afternoon,
today is expected to be quite raw compared to what we have been used
to thus far in May with winds at 20 to 30 and gusts as high as 50mph
strongest in western Minnesota closer to the center of the low. Rain
showers are also expected to persist as the surface low spins over
the region, favoring western Minnesota through much of the day until
the system begins to accelerate eastwards into western Wisconsin by
later tonight. Rain amounts will not be significant for any single
area with around a quarter inch up to a half inch in western
Minnesota diminishing to less than a tenth of an inch for the Twin
Cities and western Wisconsin.

By 18z Saturday the upper level low will be over eastern Michigan
with a wedge of cool air flowing into the region allowing for
overnight lows to fall into the 30s in western Minnesota on Sunday
morning, with a chance for frost in western Minnesota. There is
little chance for frost for southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin
including the Twin Cities metro as the 850mb nose of coolest air
will stall in western Minnesota. As we head into the start of the
week, global deterministic guidance is showing another system moving
eastwards over the Rockies approaching the region later in the day
Monday lingering through Tuesday, bringing out next chance of
widespread rain showers to the region. While there are some
differences within the greater ensemble suite, the mean upper level
low is situated over western Nebraska/SoDak by Tuesday morning
dragging a stationary front over southeastern Minnesota where the
greatest chance for showers exists. The biggest differences within
guidance arrives as the system progresses eastwards by early
Wednesday with showers generally ending early on Wednesday. This
system will have much cooler air wrapped within compared to the
system that will move out in the next 48 hours, so severe weather
potential seems quite limited despite decent synoptic forcing. Upper
level flow breaks down with low forecast confidence by late week
with significant differences between ensemble members and different
models.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Broken to overcast MVFR cigs will continue to slowly spread east
throughout the TAF period as the surface low over eastern ND
travels east also. Incoming wrap-around moisture to the west of
the low (and moisture pooling near the low) will also cause a
gradual reduction to low-end MVFR/IFR at all terminals from west
to east. Rounds of rain showers are also likely as the surface
low passes over MN today, with the greatest coverage looking
most likely during the morning and afternoon for MN and this
evening for WI. Visibilities should predominantly be above 3sm,
though, brief periods below 3sm are possible. But, have not
included IFR visibilities in the TAF at this time. Winds will
become southwesterly, then westerly, to northwesterly as the
surface low moves over central MN and into WI today. Strongest
winds are expected over MN where sustained values of 15-25 knots
and gusts of 25-35 knots are expected. Southwesterly LLWS of
40-45 knots is also possible this early this morning until
sunrise.

KMSP...Added southwesterly LLWS of 45 knots from 08-13Z this
morning. Southwesterly winds strengthen tonight into this
afternoon with gusts reaching 30-35 knots during the daytime
hours. MVFR cigs and showers begin after 18Z with the heaviest
rain expected from 21-02Z. IFR cigs look likely late Friday
evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR mrng cigs likely. Wind NW 10-15G20-25 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
MON...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/SHRA. Wind E 10-15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Blue Earth-Brown-
     Chippewa-Faribault-Freeborn-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-
     Nicollet-Redwood-Renville-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan-
     Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...CTG