942
FXUS63 KMPX 161941
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
241 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chance (10 to 20 percent) for showers overnight
  north of I-94 in Minnesota.

- Increasing confidence for showers and thunderstorms Sunday
  night. The risk for severe weather or heavy rain is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Main change to the forecast was to add a
small chance for showers and possibly a thunderstorm north of
I-94 late tonight (after midnight) into Friday morning. An area
of isentropic ascent ahead of a low amplitude shortwave will
lead to ascent. HiRes models are in good agreement in developing
a few showers and thunderstorms. Instability is very low, so the
risk for severe weather is near-zero.

Eventually these will lift northeast and weaken as warm air
advection spreads across the region on Friday, leading to highs
in the 80s to near 90 across western MN. DESI showed a 20
percent chance of seeing 90s degrees, so continued with
forecast temperatures on the higher side of guidance.

On Saturday a cold front will pass through the region, but
should move through mainly dry. There is a small chance for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms along and east of I-35. This
frontal boundary will move through and stall out across Iowa,
which will be the next focus for showers and thunderstorms late
Sunday into next week.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Sunday will start out dry with
southeast winds developing ahead of the next storm system that
will bring widespread rain across the region Sunday night into
Monday. Minnesota and Wisconsin will be on the cool side of this
system, so that means little if any instability and a very low
severe weather threat. Precipitation chances have increased from
the previous forecast, as confidence remains high that most
locations will see rain with this system.

Looking ahead, a couple more storm systems will move across the
region next week. Given the timing and placement differences,
this leads to a forecast with 20 to 40 percent chances for rain
throughout the period. In reality, there will be more narrow
windows when rain will move across the region. As has been the
case this entire spring, the warm sector of these system is
expected to remain to the south, which means low chances for
severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Early afternoon observations have reflected improvements to high
MVFR/low VFR ceilings across TAF sites. The upward trend is
forecast to continue in the short term, such that the 18z TAFs
all include improvements to VFR by mid-afternoon, or so. Breezy
westerly winds decrease into this evening and will shift
out of the south into Thursday morning. Winds will increase out
of the southwest by midday Friday, so expect an uptick in the
winds in forthcoming TAFs. Opted to keep AXN/STC dry overnight,
however latest hi-resolution models have depicted the chance for
a few isolated showers at the northernmost terminals. The
chance appears low, so will defer to the 00z issuance for
possible mention.

KMSP...Improvements to VFR this afternoon, with light winds
overnight. Southwest winds will increase Friday afternoon, which
will create crosswind setup on the parallels. Sustained winds
10-15 kts, with gusts around 20, to perhaps 25 kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR, slight chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S to W 15-20G30kts.
SUN...VFR, chc MVFR/SHRA late. Wind SE 10-15kts.
MON...MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SE 5-10 kts, bcmg NW 5-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...Strus