092
FXUS63 KMPX 311208
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
608 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another clipper system brings a period of light snow this
  morning. Some freezing drizzle is also possible across
  southwest MN.

- A few more weak disturbances may bring additional chances for
  light snow accumulation through early next week.

- Cold start to the New Year with highs in the teens through
  Saturday. Temperatures modify back into the 20s thereafter.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Temperatures are mild early this morning in the low to mid 30s
across the southern half of MN and in the 20s in WI. A cold
front across northern MN will push south during the next few
hours and temperatures will begin dropping. A steady decline in
temperatures will occur from this morning through this evening.
There have been a few reports of light rain overnight in parts
of MN, but temperatures are mild enough to keep it from causing
slick spots.

Current radar shows the next batch of light snow across eastern
ND and northwest MN heading southeast. The column will saturate
between 4-6 AM and light snow will begin. Initially, lift
should be weak, and most of the saturated column will be warmer
than -10C signaling mostly plates and columns. Later in the
morning, better lift through a shallow DGZ layer between 12-15
kft could start producing more dendrites. It isn`t until closer
to midday more of the temperature profile cools into the DGZ,
but by then drier air begins to work in and the snow ends.
Visibilities will be reduced, but the snow may not be the most
efficient at accumulating. Still calling for around an inch or
less with this quick shot of snow, with the highest amounts
along the I-94 corridor. Some freezing drizzle is possible
across southwest MN given a drier DGZ, but very little ice
accumulation is expected.

Surface high pressure will build in tonight. Clearing skies and
light winds will allow temperatures to fall below zero in most
areas this evening. High clouds will increase overnight with the
approach of another weak disturbance, which should stabilize
and moderate temperatures toward dawn. The column will saturate
up to about 15 kft with modest lift between the upper and lower
DGZ layers. Light snow chances are increasing along and north of
I-94 with accumulations of 1/2 to 1 inch possible again.

Northwest flow will prevail through the period, although heights
are expected to increase this weekend and lead to a moderating
trend with temperatures. Another couple disturbances on Friday
night and Sunday may bring even more chances for light snow.
Some potential for a wintry mix does exist for Sunday depending
on how much warm air begins working in aloft. Neither of these
look too significant but may bring typical minor impacts as with
any wintry precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

The snow is arriving a little later than expected, but it is
starting to enter central MN at TAF issuance time with MVFR vis
now being reported at AXN. The snow will spread southeast during
the next couple of hours, reaching eastern MN and RNH areas
by 14Z. The snow still extends back into northeastern ND, so it
is going to be a while before it exits. Forecast soundings show
favorable saturation into the mid afternoon hours. Rates will be
light, but IFR visibilities are likely. Another round of light
snow expected Thursday morning along and north of I-94.

KMSP...Light snow should arrive around 1330Z, then continue for
several hours into the mid afternoon. MVFR/IFR conditions are
likely with the snow, with visibilities hovering on either side
of 2SM.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Borghoff