630
FXUS63 KMPX 201120
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
620 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing storms this morning producing occasional wind gusts
  near 45 to 55 mph, becoming more scattered by mid morning.

- A short period of hazardous heat and humidity Monday afternoon
  before turning cooler for midweek.

- Hot temperatures return next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

A well-developed line of storms is progressing through Minnesota
early this morning well ahead of a boundary to the west. These
storms have approached severe level winds, but have stayed
within the 45 to 55 mph range for the strongest gusts. We expect
storms to continue into western WI, and eventually wane off the
further they decouple from the LLJ. The hi-res CAMs have had a
horrible handle on the convection this morning, but the general
idea of what we had been seeing with development early this
morning ended up being our solution with this first wave. As the
morning activity clears out to the southeast, it will be early
enough for us to be able to recover ahead of our next chance for
storms later today.

There is some indication that we could have development near
the Minnesota River Valley in SW MN mid-late morning that could
reach as far north as the metro, but it would be favored to stay
closer towards the Mankato and Owatonna area. All of this
potential storm activity will have an impact on temperatures and
heat indices today. With the surge of more humid air to the
south of the front, heat indices have the potential to climb
into the triple digits for areas in southern MN during the early
to mid afternoon. Even as the front moves through, the drier
air could allow for more efficient mixing of warmer temperatures
down to the surface. The urban heat island of the Twin Cities
metro may see a period of heat impacts as well, but the boundary
moving through in the afternoon should allow for quicker
recovery this evening. There was little change to the SPC severe
weather outlook for today, but main risk continues to favor
areas south and east. After our morning storms, it seems much
more likely that the majority of the Upper MS Valley remains
dry. That said, the best chance for any storm development this
afternoon would be between Rusk to Eau Claire Counties and east
into central WI. Tied to the front will be a wave of some
additional wildfire smoke, but it does not look to be as dense
or long-lasting.

Behind this wave, cooler and less humid air will settle in.
After over a week of consecutive 90+ degree days, highs will
return closer to normal for mid week. We should also see
nighttime lows drop into the 50s nearly areawide Tuesday and
Wednesday night, allowing for a nice time to open up windows
again. Deterministic and ensemble guidance favor a much drier
pattern under northwest flow and a building by the end of the
week. Any rain chances will come from more mesoscale features,
and will be day to day. The main thing to watch with the
building ridge this weekend, is our highs may climb right back
up into the 90s again.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Morning thunderstorms are still moving though parts of western
Wisconsin and southern Minnesota. This will come to an end
within the first few hours of this period. Winds will pick up
today with gusts up into the 20 to 30 knot range. Another
round of storms are possible in the afternoon, but chances are
not as high after this morning`s activity. Best chances will be
across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

KMSP...Good confidence that storms are done for the morning.
Reasonably high confidence that storms will not impact that
terminal area this afternoon. Beyond these convective chances
there could also be a crosswind this morning before winds
shifting to the west and eventually northwest.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE PM...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind N/NW 5 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CDT this evening for
     Anoka-Carver-Dakota-Goodhue-Hennepin-Ramsey-Rice-Scott-
     Washington.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     Blue Earth-Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-Le Sueur-Martin-
     Nicollet-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...NDC