669
FXUS63 KMPX 062126
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
326 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Band of freezing rain to develop late this afternoon and
  evening across western MN that will transition to snow
  overnight. Ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inches
  possible across west central MN.

- Another wintry system, producing a mixture of rain and snow,
  is expected Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Other than a brief cool-down Saturday, temepratures will
  remain well above normal through Monday, with temperatures
  closer to normal for Tuesday through the rest of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

There are some impressive temperature gradients across the central
CONUS today associated with the low over central KS. The warm front
with the low extends up to about the I-80 corridor in Iowa. To the
north, there`s a northern stream cold front moving across western
MN. We`re seeing some 70s all the way up into southern Iowa within
the warm sector, while behind the cold front, temperatures in the
teens and 20s in the Dakotas have sent temperatures in western MN
down into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Through tonight, the surface
low will track across central Iowa and across the southeast corner
of MN on its way to northeast WI Saturday morning. With this track,
the MPX area will remain within the cold sector of this system.
Therefore when it comes to hazardous weather, we won`t have to worry
about the severe side of things, instead, we can place our focus on
the cold side.

For the rest of tonight, there`s a lot of moving parts. For
temperatures, the CAA moving into western MN is shallow and we`re
developing fairly classic freezing rain soundings where temperatures
have fallen below freezing at the surface. These freezing rain
profiles will remain in place through roughly 3z (10pm), with the
warm nose finally cooling down after that, with a wintry p-type
changing from freezing rain over to snow. The big question with this
environment is when does the precipitation start falling. The
problem we have now for precipitation is we have very dry mid/upper
level air sitting above our stratus, but as the surface low moves
toward central Iowa this evening, our vertical moisture profile will
start to fill in, with a pretty rapid expansion in precip expected
across the area between 5pm and 7pm. It continues to look like we`ll
have a band of freezing rain out in western MN that will be able to
pickup upwards of 0.2" inches of ice accumulation from roughly
Redwood Falls back to the SoDak border. Though this could move up if
freezing rain starts earlier, or drop if it starts later. Overnight,
a southwest to northeast oriented deformation band of precip will
slowly move across the area from west to east, with early risers
Saturday morning in the Twin Cities likely getting treated to some
falling snow. Saturday will see quite the spread in temperatures
across the area, with clouds making it a struggle for eastern MN and
western WI to get out of the 30s, while sun in western MN will
likely allow highs in west central MN to reach the low to mid 50s.

Sunday will see our warmest push of air during this stretch, with
highs in the 60s expected pretty much area wide. The next front will
push through the area on Monday, how quickly it does so will
determine how warm we get on Monday, though forecast highs for
Monday have trended down some. For the rest of the week, we`ll have
a strong jet overhead, with a strong thermal gradient across the
northern US. With this jet overhead, we`ll see numerous waves sneak
across the northern CONUS. The first comes Tuesday, which is
trending toward central/northern MN, with another for the end of the
week. Precipitation for the most part will be on the cool side of
the thermal gradient, which means where precip falls, it will most
likely fall as snow. As for temperatures next week, we have seen the
EPS slowly modify on the cold, with highs expected to be near
normal, with a warmer day possible Thursday depending on which side
of the Thursday night wave we end up on. As for the cold, that has
been pushed out into next weekend, with a proper spring warmup
possibly lurking for the last week of March.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1203 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

IFR to LIFR conditions persist through the afternoon & into
this evening, as very low clouds below 500 ft at times & patchy
drizzle/mist drop visibility down to 1-2 SM. More steady
drizzle is expected to begin this afternoon, which may improve
visibility & ceilings somewhat, but this drizzle will quickly
transition to freezing drizzle across western & central
Minnesota through the late afternoon & evening. 0.1-0.2" of ice
accumulation is forecast at AXN/RWF/STC & a glaze of ice is
possible at MKT & MSP. The freezing rain/drizzle transitions
over to snow overnight, where visibility will drop to around 1SM
for a few hours, with snowfall rates around 0.5"/hr resulting
in a slushy inch or so of accumulation by the morning.
Visibility & ceilings improve as the snow ends from west to
east during the early to mid morning, with ceilings expected to
scatter out by late morning/early afternoon.

Southeast winds around 5-10 mph become northwesterly as the cold
air arrives this afternoon, with gusts around 20 kts
persisting into tomorrow morning.

KMSP...Borderline LIFR conditions persist this afternoon with
ceilings hovering around 500 ft & visibility between 1-2SM with
mist & patchy drizzle. Steadier rain arrives this evening, which
is expected to improve visibilities & ceilings somewhat,
although IFR ceilings are still likely. The light rain is
expected to change over to a wintry mix of snow & rain, or
possible freezing rain during the overnight hours (2-4 AM), but
then quickly change over to all snow for a few hours during the
early morning hours. The icing potential at MSP looks low for
now, but we`ll have to monitor how quickly the precipitation-
type trends into this evening. The snow will only last for 2-3
hours, but there could be an hour or two of visibility down to
1SM or less along with snowfall rates of 0.5-0.75"/hr. The snow
exits off to the east by 6-7 AM, with ceilings slowly improving
through the morning & eventually scattering out during the early
afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
TUE...MVFR likely. Chance IFR/-RASN. Wind NE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Saturday for Chippewa-
     Douglas-Lac Qui Parle-Pope-Stevens-Swift-Yellow Medicine.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for Benton-
     Kandiyohi-Meeker-Morrison-Redwood-Renville-Stearns-Todd.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for Blue Earth-
     Brown-Faribault-Isanti-Kanabec-Martin-McLeod-Mille Lacs-
     Nicollet-Sherburne-Sibley-Watonwan-Wright.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...ETA