413
FXUS63 KMPX 231105
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
605 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy southerly winds expected this afternoon, rising
  temperatures into the 70s again.

- Multiple chances for rain today through Monday. The highest
  rain rates and amounts expected in S/SW MN Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

It is a relatively quiet morning, though we are seeing our first
solid amount of cloud cover in several days. Temperatures are
starting off warm for the day, with widespread 50s and 60s early
this morning.

Multiple chances for rain are on the way, stemming from an area
of low pressure that will deepen along the lee of the Rockies
later today. Our first look at showers today will initiate from
the increasing WAA, especially across western and central
Minnesota where southerly winds are expected to gust between 25
and 35 mph today. Isolated showers move in as early as 7-9AM
over southwest Minnesota, and become more scattered along a
northeastwared-moving boundary by the afternoon. Forecast
soundings reveal a couple hundred J of CAPE across central
Minnesota, potentially supporting isolated thunderstorms
embedded within the area of showers.

Warm temperatures today and tomorrow are the last hurrah of this
late October "heatwave," as a cold front begins to sweep through
the Upper Midwest. The front, and the series of upper waves
tied to it, will promote continued chances for light rain
through much of the weekend. By that, I do not mean a washout by
any mean, in fact it is probably the opposite of that. It will
not rain the whole weekend, nor will it rain everywhere. In the
spots that do see rainfall, the amounts will be light Saturday
and Sunday, primarily at or below 0.1".

Temperatures crash down to near-normal starting Sunday, and
another low pressure travels northeast from the Central
Plains. This puts us on the northern side of the low, which
often can mean a greater chance for wintry precipitation,
though current NBM temperatures Monday morning range from the
upper 30s to low 40s. Long range guidance suggest any chance for
snowflakes will stay to the north and east of us with this
system. Rainfall amounts still look promising, with a gradual
accumulation of between 0.5 to 0.75 inches across western
Minnesota and about 0.2 to 0.5 inches for areas to the east.
PoPs drop off by Tuesday, but remain between 10 to 30 percent
through much of the rest of the week.

Halloween is starting to get into the range of our forecast, and
current guidance shows no major sign of a large system that
weekend, which would keep things roughly around normal
conditions for late October.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 556 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Main concern for this period will be the increasing S/SE winds
today. Expect gusts near 30 to 35 kts across western Minnesota
and gusts near 20 to 25 kts across eastern Minnesota into
western Wisconsin. Southerly LLWS of 40-50 knots is also likely
this evening over MN as a strong LLJ moves overhead.

In addition to the winds, showers are expected to develop over
southwest Minnesota and expand northeastward through the
afternoon. The best chance for occasional lightning is at AXN,
otherwise expect primarily showers.

KMSP...Confidence for any impact for rain at KMSP is still too
low (less than 30%) to include in the TAF. The best timeframe
for any SHRA would be between 20 to 23z today.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-15G25kts becoming W.
SUN...VFR. Wind N 5-10kts.
MON...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...BED