724
FXUS63 KMPX 010500
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1100 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow continues this afternoon with the remaining snowfall
  south of I-94.

- Cold start to 2026 with below normal temperatures through
  Saturday, temperatures return to normal Sunday into next week.

- A few more chances for light snow over the next few days with
  the most likely chance tomorrow morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Current radar and surface observations show the snow from a
Willmar to southern Twin Cities to Pepin County, WI line. This
will continue to shift south and east with all snow ending by
this evening. Snow ratios have been coming in closer to 10:1
rather than the more typical for this time of year 12:1 to
15:1. This lower ratio snow looks likely to continue as
saturation in forecast soundings appear to be below the level
the DGZ is at. Cold air moves in behind this system and
temperatures fall into single digits above/below zero tonight.
Thankfully with higher pressure building winds looks to be
light. Despite this higher pressure, increasing saturation will
not only provide more cloud cover but the next snow chance.
This saturation looks deepest along and north of I-94 tomorrow
morning into early afternoon. There is little forcing present,
but with saturation through the DGZ expected another half inch
to inch will be possible along and north of I-94. Chances closer
to a half inch along I-94 with the inch more likely to the
north.

Continued northwest flow through Saturday will continue the
below normal temperatures with highs generally in the teens and
lows in the single digits. Normals for this time of the year
are highs in the 20s and lows in the low teens. Sunday into next
week that is more what we are expecting. As the flow aloft gets
more westerly temepratures warm into the 20s and on our warmest
days 30s with lows in the teens. Saturday and Monday have some
weak 500 mb disturbances and therefore chances for snow. These
appear weak, so light snow with trace to maybe a tenth or two
expected. So after a busier stretch of weather we will be moving
into a period Sunday that should be nice for outdoor winter
activities.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

VFR conditions continue overnight northwest winds turning light
and variable. The next round of light snow arrives after
daybreak this morning. The snow will track along and north/east
of the I-94 corridor so chances at all terminals except RWF and
MKT. This would be similar to what we saw Wednesday morning
with a period of around 2SM IFR -SN conditions. I have
maintained the TEMPO groups with IFR and prevailed MVFR vsbys.
Winds remain light behind the snow with a westerly component aob
6kts. Ceilings will be near MVFR after snow ends this afternoon
between OVC025 to OVC035. We`ll see cigs gradually improve to
low VFR by the end of period.

KMSP... Added a prevailing 5SM -SN and kept the TEMPO for 2SM
-SN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. S Chc -SN/MVFR. Wind variable 5 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...BPH