850
FXUS63 KMPX 050712
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
212 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for thunderstorms Saturday & Sunday morning across
  western Minnesota.

- More widespread rainfall possible Monday into Tuesday, though
  areas across northern MN are favored for heaviest amounts.

- More seasonable airmass arrives for the rest of the week after
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

If you look out your window to the west and squint hard enough,
you may be able to see the broad cluster of storms ongoing
early this morning across the Dakotas. These storms are
developing within an area of WAA along the eastern edge of the
nocturnal LLJ. As the morning progresses, expect the storms to
gradually move east into parts of western MN, though they may be
waning as the LLJ weakens by mid morning. A couple thousand
Joules of MLCAPE and effective wind shear of about 35 kts could
support some organization of storms, and result in isolated
cases of severe wind or hail, particularly across southwest MN.

Overall heat impacts will be lower today with temperatures in
the 80s and dewpoints largely in the 60s. Southwest MN may
still feel muggy with 70 degree dewpoints lingering into today.

This pattern remains the same for the rest of the holiday
weekend, with the ridge aloft only just starting to break down
by Monday. Our best chance for more widespread precip will be
tied to the shortwave that moves through Monday into Tuesday,
though northern Minnesota remains favored for the best forcing
and greatest rainfall potential. The SPC has a marginal risk for
severe weather over western MN for the next three days while
this hot and stormy pattern holds.

The rest of the week will feature increased NW/W flow, ushering
in a more seasonable airmass for early September.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Low stratus is making the slow westward creep from WI into MN at
initialization, with the expectation that all sites will be
dealing with IFR ceilings prior to sunrise and lasting
potentially into late morning. Ceilings will likely drop to
between 400-800ft, potentially as low as 200ft which may come
along with visibility restrictions. By late morning and
continuing for the rest of the TAF period, the low level
moisture will be scoured out and VFR conditions will prevail.
Winds will remain NE to E throughout this duration with speeds
under 10kts.

KMSP...Low stratus will likely be realized at MSP by 08z (if not
07z) and persist past sunrise and potentially to close to 18z.
IFR initially expected, with LIFR ceilings possible. Ceilings
look to rise into low-range MVFR before clearing out altogether
for the afternoon-evening hours with only high clouds remaining.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...Mainly VFR. Chc SHRA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15kts.
TUE...SHRA/MVFR likely with chc TSRA, mainly in the morning.
Clearing late. Wind S 10-15kts becoming W.
WED...VFR. W 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC