431
FXUS63 KMPX 052339
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
639 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms, some capable of hail and gusty winds,
  will continue through early evening. Areas of fog developing
  late tonight.

- Drier and warmer Saturday, before another round of showers and
  thunderstorms late Sunday through Monday.

- Hotter and more humid conditions by the middle of next week
  with highs in the 90s expected. Heat indices may exceed 100
  degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Scattered thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western
MN early this afternoon ahead of the main shortwave trough.
Storms are also developing along an outflow boundary, left
behind from from this morning`s activity, from Cambridge
southwestward to Buffalo. Activity will generally increase in
coverage and expand eastward this afternoon, while remaining
fairly disorganized due to a lack of strong deep layer shear.
Nevertheless, some may pulse up and become severe for a short
time, as has been the case for the past couple of days.
Marginally severe hail and gusty winds are the main threats
until storms weaken near sunset. Clouds will clear this evening.
With light winds and recent rain areas of fog are probable
overnight.

Weak high pressure over the Great Lakes will turn winds light
easterly Saturday and drier air will work in. Temperatures will
rebound back to the upper 80s.

An upper low over the southern Plains Saturday will lift north
to the Upper Midwest Sunday night and Monday. With it will come
pwats between 1.75-2 inches. However, poor mid level lapse
rates and little low level forcing may make it difficult to
sustain deep convection which should keep QPF relatively light.

Next week a trough will dig into the west and a ridge will
buckle northward across the eastern U.S. Southwest flow will
overtake the central U.S. and several embedded disturbances may
bring storm chances Tuesday into early Wednesday. 700 mb temps
will climb to near +12C, which is near the warm limit to
allow convection. A hot and humid airmass will advect north,
and if convective development does not occur, widespread low to
mid 90s are expected Wednesday. Heat indices should climb to
around 100. The trough will approach Wednesday and a cold front
may push through as early as Wednesday evening. Showers and
thunderstorms should develop along the front and SPC highlights
the Upper Midwest in their day 6 outlook. Cooler air will
follow the front, and if this timing holds, the forecast may be
way too warm Thursday. Given storm chances and a quicker cold
front arrival, forecast temperatures have trended down mid to
late week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Scattered thunderstorms this evening, but these will decrease
toward sunset, and clear out quickly overnight. This will set
the stage for some patchy radiation fog to develop again late
tonight into Saturday morning. Based on the rain that fell at
KAXN and KEAU, could see IFR/LIFR conditions at those sites.

On Saturday, expect VFR conditions with light winds.

KMSP...
Could see some thunder for the next couple of hours at KMSP, but
then the storms to diminish near sunset. Overnight expect VFR
conditions, with the fog remaining away from KMSP. Saturday will
be VFR, with northeast winds becoming east by the end of the
day.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...Mainly VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR late. Wind SE at 10-15 kts
MON...SHRA/TSRA likely. MVFR possible. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR with MVFR possible. Wind SE 10G15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...JRB