649
FXUS63 KMPX 251135
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
635 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another prolonged heat wave begins today. Extreme heat
  watches, warnings, and advisories have been posted through
  Sunday evening. The hottest day will be Sunday when heat
  indices will reach 100 to 110.

- Less humid air arrives Monday, but highs will remain in the
  low 90s next week.

- Low confidence remains on convective development through
  Sunday night due to capping.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Extensive low stratus has developed overnight across MN, western
WI, southward into NE and MO thanks to rich moisture advection
around 925 mb. The cloud depth is only about 1 kft, so the
clouds should lift and scatter relatively quickly this morning.
Once the clouds scatter, temperatures will climb into the low to
mid 90s this afternoon across MN and upper 80s in WI. Combined
with dew points in the 65-70 degree range across central MN and
northwest WI to the 75-80 degree range across southern MN, heat
indices will peak in the 95-100 degree range across central MN
and western WI, to around 105 across south central and west
central MN. Extreme Heat Warnings begin this afternoon from the
metro south and west, with a Heat Advisory across central MN and
far western WI. Rising heights and increasing 700 mb
temperatures should put a lid on thunderstorm development this
afternoon in most areas, but a few storms may fire in parts of
WI where capping is weaker. However, the lack of clear forcing
may too prevent much from developing. Understandably, CAMs are
not too optimistic today. If a storm does develop, it will have
plenty of deep layer shear and instability to work with, so the
severe risk today is conditional. Additional storms may fire
over central and western SD this afternoon where very hot
temperatures of 105-110 are predicted. Should they organize and
develop a cold pool, they may track into southwestern MN late
this evening or overnight.

The impacts of any overnight convection do raise some questions
as to how hot highs will get Sunday. Mid 90s are forecast
across the region which should be easily doable if the cold pool
washes out quickly. If not, it may be a few degrees cooler, but
dew points may be even higher. ECMWF and Canadian models are
advertising low 80s across much of southern and western MN. Even
with highs in the lower 90s, lower 80s dew points will still
result in heat indices nearing 115. Confidence is high the
warning will verify, even if confidence in high temperatures is
lower. Expanded the warning north and east for Sunday, but kept
the watch going from Douglas to Rusk counties where it remains
marginal.

A diffuse cold front will push southeast Sunday night. Forcing
along the front is very weak, but a strengthening LLJ Sunday
evening could be a compensating forcing mechanism. 700 mb temps
remain very warm (+12 to +15C) which is usually prohibitively
high to support convective development. Nonetheless, some
models, including the ECMWF, insist on convection developing
Sunday evening and diving south into IA overnight. This MCS
would be capable of wind damage should it form. Confidence
remains low.

Drier air will work in Monday which is expected to keep heat
indices below warning criteria. Depending how warm highs can
get, a Heat Advisory may eventually be necessary.

Northwest flow continues all next week. Ripples embedded within
the flow could bring chances for thunderstorms at any point, but
these are not predictable at this range. Temperatures will
remain very warm with several days in the low 90s expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

MVFR and IFR cigs will persist for the next few hours before
gradually clearing from west to east. Southwesterly winds will
become light and variable through this afternoon before turning
south again late this evening. There is a non-zero chance for
some showers and thunderstorms this afternoon but confidence in
development is very low, so have left all sites dry.


KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Chc for -TSRA PM. Wind SSW 10 kts.
MON...VFR. W 5-10 kts becoming NW at 10-15G25 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory from noon today to 11 AM CDT Sunday for Benton-
     Chisago-Douglas-Goodhue-Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-
     Morrison-Sherburne-Stearns-Todd.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for Douglas-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Todd.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT Sunday for
     Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Faribault-
     Freeborn-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-
     McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-
     Scott-Sibley-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Waseca-Washington-
     Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for Benton-
     Chisago-Goodhue-Isanti-Sherburne-Stearns.
WI...Heat Advisory from noon today to 11 AM CDT Sunday for Pierce-
     Polk-St. Croix.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for Barron-Rusk.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for
     Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Dye