891
FXUS63 KMPX 100016
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
716 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost Advisory in effect late tonight through early Sunday
  morning for portions of western and central MN and western WI.

- Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon across
  portions of western and central Minnesota.

- Next best chance for rain arrives late Monday into Tuesday
  with low-end chances for the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Despite increased winds and chilly temps this afternoon, it is a
nice afternoon. Aloft, an upper-level low loiters over southern
Hudson Bay which in turns keeps the western periphery of its
parent trough over Minnesota and Wisconsin. This has allowed for
continued northwesterly flow and cold advection. At the
surface, banded streets of low-level cu have developed in the
wake of a surface cold front which has departed to our south and
east early this morning. This FROPA did also provide a few
hundredths to a couple tenths of an inch of liquid mainly across
central Minnesota into portions of western Wisconsin. Surface
high pressure continues to build in from the north today which
means northwesterly surface wind gusts remain breezy between 20
to 30 mph. Combining these wind speeds with cooler high temps
and lower dew points, there remains concerns for elevated fire
weather conditions through the rest of this afternoon for
portions of western and central Minnesota. Skies will remain
mostly sunny for this evening into tonight which should allow
for low temperatures to dip into the mid-30s to near 40 in the
core TC metro. Therefore have issued a Frost Advisory for much
of western MN and central MN and portions of western WI late
tonight through early tomorrow morning. By Sunday, the
aforementioned surface high will be directly overhead. The
forecast will be similar to today`s although winds wont be as
breezy. Sunday night`s lows look to be the coldest of the week
(upper 20s to mid 30s) and may likely warrant the potential for
freeze headlines across central MN into western WI for late
Sunday into Monday morning.

As we head into next week, a shortwave through moves in from the
northwest into the northern plains. As mentioned in previous
discussion, ensemble guidance continues to advertise for
widespread rainfall potential late Monday into Tuesday. Highest
confidence remains along and north of I-94 and east of I-35
corridor for some measurable rainfall. The "how much do we get?"
question is still on the table as EPS guidance does loose
confidence for areas receiving greater than a 0.1". Still cannot
rule out a low potential for thunder which will help a few
areas see locally higher rainfall amounts. By midweek, thermal
ridging pushes further eastward allowing for greater WAA to
bring temperatures back to slightly above normal for early May
(highs in the mid 70s/lows in the lower 50s). A couple of
shortwaves do look to bring additional rain chances later in the
week however they do not look as promising as Tuesday`s system
so kept low-end PoP mentions late in the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 711 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Solid VFR conditions expected throughout this duration. This TAF
set is primarily a wind forecast. While directions will be
from the NW through tomorrow, speeds will be the main impact.
Breezy/gusty winds will persist until around 02z-03z then
steadily diminish to under 5kts for the late evening and
overnight hours, then pick up once again after sunrise Sunday to
become breezy/gusty once again but not as much as today.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR early. Wind NW 15-20G30 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for Benton-Blue
     Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Chisago-Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec-
     Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-
     Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-
     Stevens-Swift-Todd-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for Barron-
     Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JPC