290
FXUS63 KMPX 112107
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
307 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will persist through early next
  week, with highs rising from the 30s/40s on Thursday to the
  40s/50s Friday through Tuesday. Possible record warm highs on
  Saturday.

- Dry conditions are expected through the weekend, with the next
  chance for precipitation not until the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

A scattered deck of mid-level clouds remains across eastern
Minnesota and far western Wisconsin this afternoon. Where
snowpack remains, temperatures are about 10 degrees cooler than
where snow has melted. This means temperatures in the mid 30s
for the Twin Cities Metro and as warm as mid 40s for areas as
near as Mankato.

The front to the west of our coverage area will weakly move east
through Thursday, with little support for any weather activity.
With no upper level support for precipitation, the only impact
will be an increase in cloud cover later tonight. With
Thursday`s system falling apart and trending south, the only
mention of precipitation now comes next week Tuesday into
Wednesday in the form of mostly rain given the antecedent warmth
and lack of significant airmass change to bring strong cooling.

Looking at temperatures, the first, of what is likely to be
several, thaw of the year will soon be in full swing. High
pressure our east will reinforce ridging out west. This ridge
will shift eastward and bring a warm air mass with it. The
result will be temperatures 20-30 degrees above normal, with
highs reaching the mid 50s over the weekend into early next
week. Saturday`s warm high temperatures will result in MSP,
STC, and EAU all approaching 90+ year old records. With this in
mind, Tuesday could be the warmest of the period with highs in
the mid 50s south of I-94 and potentially low 60s in SW MN near
I-90. The days surrounding Saturday will all be above normal for
high temperatures as well, but the records will be harder to
reach with higher thresholds. See the climate section below for
a listing of daily records Friday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1057 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

At AXN, some CAMs are hinting of reduced visibility within the
few hours of sunrise Thursday from mist. Have introduced MVFR
conditions with visibility down to 5sm to draw attention. Trends
will need to be monitored in future forecasts. Broken to
scattered stratocumulus near 6000 feet from central to
southeast MN will gradually push east and dissipate into this
evening. A broken deck of mid-level clouds near 10000-15000 feet
will move in from the west tonight into Thursday morning before
skies begin to clear. Current light winds will slow to
calm/variable this evening through tonight. Winds turn
southeasterly late Thursday morning.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI-SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W 5 kts becoming S late.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 228 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Record high temperatures for February 13th through 17th can be
found in the table below. Period of records began: MPX (1996),
MSP (1872), STC (1894), EAU (1893).

        FRI         SAT         SUN         MON         TUE
        2/13        2/14        2/15        2/16        2/17

MPX     47 (2017)   46 (2002)   45 (1999)   54 (2011)   62 (2017)
MSP     51 (1890)   50 (1882)   63 (1921)   60 (1981)   63 (2017)
STC     47 (2011)   52 (1921)   55 (1921)   53 (1981)   59 (2017)
EAU     47 (1921)   49 (1934)   58 (1921)   58 (1931)   55 (1981)

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...CTG
CLIMATE...PV