494
FXUS63 KMPX 271808
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
108 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry for the rest of the day, with patchy fog expected again
  tomorrow morning.

- More rain chances over the next week with the best chance
  coming on Tuesday. Increasing chance for rain to continue on
  Wednesday, especially across southern Minnesota.

- Temperatures will be around or slightly above average through
  midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Peeks of sunshine have begun to filter through the gloomy
stratus that was in place for much of the morning. This has
allowed temperatures to rise into the 70s in areas that have had
several hours of scattered clouds. Our rainy weather will stay
on hold while surface high pressure spreads across the Upper MS
Valley tonight into Monday. The light winds associated with the
high pressure in combination with 60F Tds should support
another night of patchy fog development similar to this
morning.

We`ll continue to see air and dewpoint temps rise as return flow
increases on the backside of the high pressure Monday. This will
set the stage for yet another round of showers that spread from
west to east ahead of a weak mid-level wave. The main change to
the forecast is an increase in QPF from Tuesday all of the way
through Thursday now, with the latest NBM producing a solid 1-2"
for much of southeast Minnesota into Wisconsin. The anomalous
moisture of 1.5" PWATs (over 200% of normal for this time of
year) is a key contributor to the rainfall potential despite
relatively weaker forcing. All that said, confidence is lower
than before for rainfall amounts with the bulk of that increase
in QPF being driven by an outlier in the model suite. If you
have been following weather recently, you probably can guess
which model that is before I even write it down. If you guessed
the GFS, you would be correct. It`s ensemble and deterministic
solutions generally place the stalled front on Wednesday a few
hundred miles north of its European and Canadian counterparts.
We tend to see the ECMWF AIFS perform well with the placement of
heavy precip for our area at this timeframe (24+ hours out),
which would favor the greatest footprint being across Iowa and
SE Minnesota into Wisconsin. Even in this scenario, we do expect
to see the rain showers move from west to east on Tuesday, the
low confidence part of the forecast is just with how far south
that front stalls out and if we stay largely dry or see another
full day of rain Wednesday.

Northwest flow and ridging will eventually build in to end the
week, resulting in a cooler and drier Canadian air mass
spreading south. Any rain chances will be tied to more subtle
waves within the flow, meaning there is no clear consensus on
when, where, or even how much we will see next weekend. The
higher confidence part of the forecast is that it`ll become a
breezier period as winds shift out of the northwest and advect
in the cooler airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

This period will be defined by low stratus. We will see slow
improvement across as terminals this afternoon with slow lifting
of ceilings. Most sites will top out at MVFR, but a few will
make it back to VFR. This will not last long as we will go back
into LIFR/IFR at all terminals tonight. It is a question of IFR
to LIFR for each terminal. Winds will be calm to light/variable
through tomorrow morning. As morning fog clears and ceilings
lift some up to 10 knot winds from the southeast are expected.

KMSP...Slow lifting of the ceiling this afternoon and evening up
to MVFR from the current IFR. Tonight IFR will return and last
into the morning. High confidence on low ceilings, less
confidence on the fog making it into the terminal area, so kept
the lower visibility as a TEMPO for now.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR/-SHRA likely, chc IFR. Wind SE 5-10G20 kts.
WED...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind S to SE 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...NDC