234
FXUS63 KMPX 012315
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
515 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread soaking rain Monday trough Wednesday. Amounts of 1-2"
expected, approaching 3" across portions of western Minnesota.

- Highs in the 60s today through Tuesday (in western WI) will
  fall back into the 40s and 50s the rest of the week, but will
  still be running around 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A surface warm front moved across MN/WI early this morning and has
now reached far northern MN. This is why it may not have felt as
chilly when you walked out the door this morning as temperatures are
ranged 5-10 degrees warmer than what they did the previous
morning. Satellite showing eastern MN and western WI wedged in
between two areas low to mid-level stratus. For sky coverage
today, decided to favor a blend of NBM/Consshort/HREF as it is
expected that the clear slot should begin to transition into
more filtered sunshine for the rest of this afternoon. The lucky
areas that have managed to remain under the clearer skies can
expect temperatures to reach near 70 degrees while areas farther
will roughly 5-7 degrees cooler given the lack of surface
heating. Tonight, clouds will continue to build in from the
south and west which should help insulate our lows in the
mid-50s.

The meat and potatoes of this forecast surrounds Monday through
Wednesday. An embedded mid-level wave that is part of a parent
troughing pattern over the intermountain west will move in across
the Dakotas. This will serve as forcing for the first large band of
rain that moves in late tonight and spreads east across MN/WI
through the first half of Monday morning. As of now, eastern MN
would see rainfall arriving around the morning commute while western
WI would see rainfall arrive by mid-morning. Winds during this time
are expected to increase across southwestern MN between 25-35 mph.
By the mid-late afternoon, a dry slot will begin making its way into
western MN which the forces rainfall to become much more scattered
in coverage through the overnight hours. At this time, another
surface low develops farther south along the same parent trough
in south-central plains. This feature than is tracked NNE`ward
and is expected to converge onto the northern wave of forcing.
The act of this convergence should help generate a new area of
low pressure somewhere across southern MN into northern IA.
This then will introduce wave number two of widespread precip
Tuesday. By Wednesday and Thursday, the parent troughing pattern
dawdles over the northern plains and maintains likely chances
for additional scattered wrap- around rain rainfall. One thing
to note though is PoPs in the latest NBM appear to favor GFS
output with precip ending as late Wednesday night as compared to
the ECMWF and Canadian departure. But have maintained 20-30 PoP
mentions on Thursday to reflect current confidence across
western WI.

QPF rainfall amounts have not changed much since the previous
forecast. Confidence continues to favor that a QPF swath ranging
between 1-2.5" of rainfall could fall in eastern SD to northwestern
MN. Areas within central MN into western WI could see 1.5-1.75".
Areas mainly south of a line from New Ulm down to Pepin could
see closer to 0.75". Of course localized higher amounts are
possible. Rainfall rates are not expected to be heavy with this
system but given the longer duration of rainfall, concerns for
localized flooding/ponding could be possible.

For the second half of the week into next weekend, the troughing
pattern will finally make its way east leaving at least Friday dry.
Once the weekend arrives, guidance diverges in solutions as ridging
builds in over the western CONUS and troughing sinks into the
central plains. The EPS and GEFS both favor another shot at rain
showers however, GEFS prefers a track over IA vs over MN currently
featured in the EPS. Still some time to work out the details. As for
temperatures for the rest of the week, highs should range in the
upper 40s to lower 50s with lows in the mid-30s to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 509 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Starting out the period with a mix of MVFR/VFR as we await
increasing winds and -RA arriving for all locations this period.
The main changes from the 18z TAF was some adjustments to
precipitation timing and intensity, as well as including some
stronger wind gusts as 30kt gusts from 140-170 appear likely for
many locations, generally after 16-18z. Rain will arrive from
west to east with most seeing -RA by at least 16z, with mainly
RNH/EAU being later than the rest. CIGS will drop as rain
arrives with both vsby/CIG bringing likely IFR and a good chance
at LIFR during the heaviest rainfall. -RA will taper a bit
towards the end of the period from west to east as a dry slot
arrives, however further -RA is expected beyond the end of the
period into Tuesday as a second round moves in. There is a non-
zero thunder chance within the period when rain is heaviest,
however confidence was too low to include for now.

KMSP...Expect to drop from VFR to MVFR near 06z, and further
towards IFR as the leading edge of -SHRA is possible from
12-14z. 14z still seems like the sweet spot for the start of
sustained rain showers based off the short-range guidance, and
as rain intensity increases towards 18z we will see some bursts
of LIFR amidst mainly IFR. Winds will also increase to 30kt
gusts after 18z and remain through the rest of the period. After
00z we should see a gap in the persistent rainfall, however
mist/-SHRA will lead to likely BR. There is also a non-zero
chance for thunder from 18-00z, however confidence was too low
to include a mention for now.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...RA/IFR. Wind S bcmg N 10-15 kts.
WED...Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind NW 5-10G20 kts.
THU...VFR. Chc MVFR/SHRA early. Wind N 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...TDH