459
FXUS63 KMPX 292337
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
637 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry conditions expected through Labor Day, with a lower end
chance for a few isolated storms this this evening through Sunday.

- Best chance for organized precipitation comes with a cold front
Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Mild, near-normal temperatures will persist through Tuesday,
  then noticeably cooler behind the cold front for the latter
  half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Residual cloud cover from this morning`s rainfall across western
Wisconsin slowly erodes this afternoon and is expected to allow for
some partial sunshine later this evening as subsidence moves in from
our northeast. Visible satellite shows two boundaries that are
located to our northeast and southwest. The source of the
diurnal cu field across southwestern MN is from a remnant
stationary boundary where the other is a weakening wave to our
northeast. The weakening wave is expected to continue moving
southward this evening and expected to converge with the
residual stationary boundary. With latest CAM guidance, any sort
of convective behavior that does occur is expected along a line
from Alexandria down to Rochester. Coverage once again to
remains isolated to scattered at best hence 30-40% PoPs. Any
area that does manage to see rain may hear a few rumbles of
thunder given ~500 to 1000 J/kg of instability, although
limited shear, severe storms are not expected but a funnel cloud
or two cannot be ruled out. Lows tonight will range in the 50s
across western WI and near 60 across western MN.

For Labor Day weekend, surface high pressure will maintain its
strength over the Great Lakes Region which will help redirect a
mid-level wave that will be slowly moving across South Dakota
and then eventually into Iowa. The good news with this system is
that with its current track, the best moisture support and
forcing are kept to our southwest. However, did maintain slight
chance PoPs across southwestern and southern MN for any isolated
showers or thunder that could develop. Rainfall accumulations
overall look to be less than a tenth of an inch with a few
isolated higher amounts from stronger cells. Temperatures
through Labor Day will continue to range in the upper 70s for
highs and lows in the 50s.

Looking towards the middle of next week, the forecast remains on
track for low pressure to sink in from the north Tuesday into
Wednesday. ECMWF and the Canadian ensemble guidance going more
aggressive with cooler temps as compared to the GFS but the takeaway
here is that temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Wednesday as
highs will only reach the lower 60s. Stronger CAA will keep temps
potentially cooler through Thursday and Friday before h85 ridging
will aid in temperatures rebounding back to normal values by the
following weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Afternoon convection across southern Minnesota has all but
dissipated at this hour. Satellite image is rather complex to
open the TAF period, with mid-level clouds associated with
convection over the Dakotas and persistent low stratus over
western Wisconsin. The stratus is rooted within the low-level
easterly flow, which is presenting the largest forecast
challenge. MVFR cigs persist in the short term at RNH/EAU,
though confidence is low in how far west MVFR cigs will spread.
Guidance is once again trending in the foggy direction at most
terminals overnight through daybreak Saturday, however the busy
satellite picture does yield some degree of uncertainty in the
forecast. In short, the degree of clearing will be key to how
widespread and dense fog is overnight. Otherwise, light winds
tonight increase out of the east between 5-10 kts tomorrow.

KMSP...Period of MVFR visibility due to ground fog is possible
overnight, though latest thinking is that more impactful
visibility reductions will be outside of the Twin Cities heat
island.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
MON...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR PM. Wind S 5kts.
TUE...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR PM. Wind SW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...Strus