870
FXUS63 KMPX 020540
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and seasonable weather for the next 7+ days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Alright, move on, nothing to see here... besides being a great
movie quote also sums up our weather over the next 7+ days. If
you`ve been outside today, you`ve likely noticed a decidedly
drier airmass is in place and that is thanks to the cold front
that cleared the MPX area to the southeast this morning. We`re
seeing high pressure move in from Montana, with dewpoints in the
Dakotas into northern MN down in the 30s. As this high moves
in, we`ll see skies gradually clear out, which will set up a
cool start to your Friday, with lows in the upper 30s to mid
40s.

Southerly winds develop late in the day on Thursday as the high
moves into WI/IL. These southerly winds will remain in place
through the day on Saturday before our next cold front moves
through Saturday night. Eventually, these southerly winds will
bring a chance at seeing some highs in the 70s on Saturday in
western MN, but the big thing with this front is it represents
our only, and rather meager, chance at rain over the next 7
days. The upper wave driving this front will be going across
Canada, with an extension down into MN. So the forcing is better
to the north. Moisture is lack luster as we never really
recover our moisture feed from today`s frontal passage. Forecast
soundings show very dry air in the lowest 8k feet or so of the
atmosphere. So you add in weak forcing, weak moisture, no
convective instability, and the inverted-v soundings and it all
adds up to a pretty minor rain event. We expect scattered
showers to move through with the front Saturday night and did
see the NBM bump up PoPs into the 30s, but amounts will be under
a tenth of an inch. The good news is these rain chances will
come long after any Little Brown Jugs are earned.

Behind this front, we get high pressure and pleasant weather for
Sunday, with excellent weather conditions for things like any
runs or tailgating adventures you may have planned for what will
be a busy weekend of events in the Twin Cities.

Next week, we`ll see above normal heights spread across the
CONUS, with the upper jet retreating into Canada. This is a
classic setup for seeing mild and dry Pacific airmasses
overspreading the CONUS and that`s exactly what we`ll see. The
high pressure from Sunday will be in the Great Lakes by the
start of next week, with warm southerly winds overspreading the
region. Add in a shortwave moving across Canada mid-week helping
to draw warm air north and we have what should be a beautiful
stretch of weather next week, with highs in the 70s starting
Tuesday. There are no indications of any stronger fronts and
changes to this airmass until next weekend, though right now,
deterministic, machine learning, and ensemble models alike show
this being another dry fropa.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

VFR through the period with increasing mid-level clouds late
tomorrow afternoon & evening. Light northwest winds overnight
with a wind shift to southeasterly tomorrow afternoon. Speeds
remain around 5 kts or less.

KMSP...Winds flip from northwesterly to southeasterly late
tomorrow afternoon/evening, most likely by 5-6 PM.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR, chc P.M. -SHRA. Wind S 10-15kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...ETA