475
FXUS63 KMPX 140907
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
307 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures persist through early next week,
  with highs in the 40s/50s through Tuesday before colder
  temperatures return mid-week.

- Today`s high temperatures will have MSP, STC, and EAU all
  approaching 90+ year old records.

- Next chance at widespread precipitation comes Tuesday
  night/Wednesday. A band of heavy, wet snow is likely with this
  system, though how far north in MN/WI this snow falls is still
  uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

You are forgiven if when looking at temperatures at 3am this morning
you thought it was St. Patrick`s Day, not St. Valentine`s Day. It
was still above freezing for much of the region south of I-94, with
lows south of I-94 this morning likely to stay above our normal
highs. To the south, there`s an h5 trough working across New Mexico,
with showers and thunderstorms spreading east across the central and
southern Plains. This system will eject off to the east, with
nothing more than some thin high clouds expected across southern MN.
With little change in the airmass we had over us on Friday, we`re
expecting highs to warm another degree or two over what we saw on
Friday. MSP should have no trouble breaking the record high for
today (50). The 49 at EAU will be within reach, while the 52 at STC
may be just out of reach for today. When you get southwest of the MN
River, we should see several sites top 60 today. This mild airmass
will remain in place until a weak (and dry) cold front slips across
the area Sunday night. This means similar mild highs in the upper
40s to lowers 60s (northeast to southwest) will happen Sunday as
well, though record highs take a step up on Sunday and are looking
safe. The only weather concern for Sunday will be the potential for
some patchy fog with light winds. However, with how warm we`ll be
getting on Saturday, we`ll likely have to have temperatures Saturday
night drop some 30+ degrees from the afternoon highs in order to see
fog Sunday morning.

Things do begin to change next week as the western trough begins to
beat down the central CONUS ridge. The first wave coming out of the
western trough will be moving across the northern Plains Tuesday and
into the upper MS Valley on Wednesday. With this upper low will be a
surface low tracking from SoDak into southern MN. South of the low
track, a dry slot will limit precip totals, with temepratures in the
40s (and even 50s) keeping things as rain. North of the low track and
warm front, it will be very heavy and wet snow. A very intense east-
west band of precip will develop north of the warm front/dry slot,
with the mean PWAT on the EPS progged to be up around 300% of
normal. QPF in the heaviest band of precipitation could potentially
exceed the average liquid precip for the entire month of February at
MSP (0.87"). Looking at EPS snow probabilities, this heavy snowband
is favored across Lake Superior and northern MN into northern NoDak.
The AI version of the EPS though is colder than the traditional EPS
and has the heavy snow across central WI into central MN. The NBM
right now favors the northern/warmer EPS solution with the heavy
snow across northern MN, but there`s still time for this to move and
definitely bears watching.

For the end of next week, we`ll still have a mean trough to our west
over the Rockies, with another wave likely to head out across the
Plains to end next week right on the heels of the midweek system. It
will be colder for this second wave, which means p-type would most
likely fall in the snow bin. However, there`s lots of spread in the
ensembles with how far north this second wave goes and the NBMs
broad brushed 20-40 PoPs Thursday night into Friday fits well with
the spread we`re seeing with the models right now. To sum it up, the
snowfall ceiling for next week right now is rather high, but the the
floor also sits down close to zero, so snow lovers shouldn`t be
getting their hopes up too much yet, though the farther away you can
get from Iowa, the better chance you see winter come back in a big
way.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1136 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

FEW-SCT high clouds across central MN otherwise SKC across the
region. We`re continuing to keep an eye on the potential for areas
of fog developing across parts of central MN and WI overnight.
Clear skies and light wills will see temperatures fall quickly
this evening. I`ve added tempo groups with IFR BR visibilities
at those sites. Additional AMD may be needed if we`re able to
see the growth & expansion of BR that would support FG
development vs BR. Otherwise, light winds will continue with
mostly clear skies after daybreak through Saturday evening.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind W 5 kts becoming S late.
MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts becoming NE.
TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR/-RA late. Wind E 5-10 kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 228 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Record high temperatures for February 13th through 17th can be
found in the table below. Period of records began: MPX (1996),
MSP (1872), STC (1894), EAU (1893).

        FRI         SAT         SUN         MON         TUE
        2/13        2/14        2/15        2/16        2/17

MPX     47 (2017)   46 (2002)   45 (1999)   54 (2011)   62 (2017)
MSP     51 (1890)   50 (1882)   63 (1921)   60 (1981)   63 (2017)
STC     47 (2011)   52 (1921)   55 (1921)   53 (1981)   59 (2017)
EAU     47 (1921)   49 (1934)   58 (1921)   58 (1931)   55 (1981)

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...BPH
CLIMATE...MPG