336
FXUS63 KMPX 282335
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
635 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry conditions expected through Labor Day, but there
  is a lower end chance for a few isolated showers Friday &
  Saturday.

- Best chance for organized precipitation comes with an early
  Fall cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Mild, near-normal temperatures will persist through Tuesday
  then noticeably cooler behind the cold front for the latter
  half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

The rest of today looks to be somewhat similar to yesterday`s
weather pattern. Areas of clear to partly cloudy skies with weak
forcing beneath a subtle wave moving across western MN this
evening. Some convective activity has already began to blossom
over areas of north-central MN and we expect that trend to
continue through out this evening into overnight. As of now,
severe weather is not anticipated with these cells but could
briefly provide a few rumbles of thunder and a brief downpour or
two. Coverage for precipitation looks to be best across central
MN tonight then moving through eastern MN western WI early
tomorrow morning. Lows tonight expected to reach the lower 60s
for most areas except east of the St. Croix River Valley will
see temps in the 50s. Ares of dense fog are are expected to
develop once again but this time looking more widespread over
western Minnesota.

Friday through Labor Day... The mid level pattern features the
trough over the eastern NOAM downstream. While there is an
impressive ridge over NW NOAM & ridge over the Four Corners SW/SC
US. There is a shortwave trough embedded over the northern Plains
that will contribute to a few low end precipitation chances over the
holiday weekend. A weak surface low will develop & spin across the
Dakotas Friday & Saturday. This feature has been modeled as far east
as eastern SD, but regardless of it`s position, it shouldn`t lead to
many impacts outside of far western Minnesota. A theta-e gradient
will set up across E MN/W WI Friday & stick around through the
weekend. A few weak disturbances will track along the gradient
through E MN/W WI and each will bring a slight increase in potential
for isolated to scattered showers. The forcing will be limited given
the nature of each blip, but the good news is that any precipitation
should be short in duration & light with limited impacts. The second
half of the weekend will dry out across E MN/W WI but the lingering
sfc low over the Dakotas will continue to support isolated showers
across far western & SW MN. Temperatures will be near-normal with
highs in the 70s & lows in the 50s. Winds remain fairly light, too.
Should be a great weekend outside of the nuisance light rain threat.

Tuesday through Thursday... A potent early Fall low pressure will
track across central Canada into Ontario by Tuesday afternoon. A
strong cold front will drop through the Upper Midwest as this system
pulls further east Tuesday night. Guidance has had good agreement
with wave & precipitation. Current forecast favors a Tuesday evening
into Wednesday morning FROPA with a broad area of rain moving
through the region. I wouldn`t be surprised to see some general
thunder-type convection associated with this system but current
guidance doesn`t depict a favorable severe environment. The bigger
news will be the early taste of Fall weather behind the cold front.
Temperatures will cool into the 60s for highs next Wednesday &
Thursday with lows in the 40s. Good news is that our high
temperatures will rebound heading into next weekend, but only into
the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Scattered showers from MKT to west of STC and east of AXN will
slowly dissipate this evening. Additional showers could form
across eastern MN overnight, spreading into WI through early
afternoon. TS development could develop farther west across MN
during peak heating in the afternoon and early evening. PROB30s
were introduced at AXN, STC, and MSP during that time.

KMSP...Small chance of showers later tonight, then some TS are
possible tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, no other concerns
through the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT-MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH/Dunleavy
AVIATION...Borghoff