311
FXUS63 KMPX 190810
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
310 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms likely Thursday evening ahead of a cold front. A
  few severe thunderstorms possible.

- Seasonable temperatures through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Overall, not a lot of changes in the forecast from previous forecast
packages. Next chance of showers and storms is on Thursday, pleasant
conditions return for the weekend. Temperatures will hover right
around the seasonal average through the weekend.

.TODAY AND THURSDAY...

For today, expect quiet and fair weather conditions. The
departure of yesterday`s cold will continue to dictate the
sensible weather conditions across the forecast area today, in
terms of dry air. Much drier air will continue to infiltrate
from the northwest with dew point temperatures dropping into the
middle to upper 40s across northern/eastern MN and western WI
this afternoon. Drier dew points (for August standards, PW
values will be 40-60 percent of normal) coupled with high
temperatures around 80 degrees will promote very very nice and
pleasant conditions for today. With relaxed pressure gradients
at the surface, winds will be light through the day at 5 to 10
mph.

The next upper level piece of energy embedded within the northwest
flow aloft will drop southeast out of the Canadian Prairies
during the overnight hours, before moving across ND/MN/WI
Thursday. In response to increased upper level energy,
corresponding surface low will develop. Winds will turn back to
the SW during the morning hours, increasing low level moisture
advection. With sufficient moisture and forcing in place,
isolated to scattered showers will develop across northern and
central MN. Not all locations will see rain, for places that do
see rain, rainfall rates will be light to moderate. By Thursday
afternoon and evening, the focus will be the corresponding cold
front as it drops southeast across MN. Scattered showers and
storms will develop along this boundary, within a modestly but
sufficient environment. With 1000-1500 J/kg, 7.0C/km mid-level
lapse rates, and 30-40 knots of deep layer shear, a few strong
to severe storms will be possible. The Storm Prediction Center
has a Marginal (1 out of 5) risk for severe weather on Thursday,
with strong winds and hail being the primary hazards within the
strongest storms.

.THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...

Thereafter, surface high pressure will settle in out of Canada under
northwesterly flow aloft. This has quiet and pleasant weather
conditions written all over it. That`s what we can expect heading
into the Friday and Saturday timeframe. Afternoon dew points in the
middle to upper 50s and high temperatures around 80 degrees will
lead to a great start to the weekend. On Sunday, another piece of
energy will eject out of the Northern Rockies towards the Midwest.
As of now, model guidance shows this system and the associated
moisture moving east-southeast across SD, IA, and southern MN.
That said, isolated to scattered showers and storms will be
possible across southwestern and southern MN Sunday afternoon
and evening.

By early next week, global deterministic models and their associated
ensemble suites show a stronger and deeper upper level system diving
southeast out of Canada and towards the Great Lakes Region. With
there still being a degree of uncertainty within run-to-run model
guidance, the finer details will need to be ironed out in the coming
days. That said, chance of showers and storms return to the
forecast during the Monday to Tuesday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds will be light
and VRB through the overnight and morning hours with high level
clouds increasing from the west. Patchy fog will be possible at
EAU between 9-12z this morning. Light northwest winds prevail
during the afternoon hours with thin cu development at 6-8 kft.

KMSP...VFR with light winds through the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR, chc PM MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 10-15kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 8-13 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...LPR