770
FXUS63 KMPX 120640
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
140 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain arrives Monday, but forecast rain amounts
  continue to trend lower.

- A cooler pattern has arrived with highs in the 60s to low
  70s through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continue across western WI early this
morning ahead of a wavy cold front located from around Lake
Mille Lacs southward to Buffalo and Hutchinson to St. James.
Cooler and drier air is slowly filtering into western MN, along
with clearing skies. Some wind gusts are noted in the CAA
regime but they are still relatively light. Winds will ease
throughout the day as a high pressure ridge axis builds in
making for a pleasant day as temperatures climb into the 70s.

A short wave will rotate southeast across MN into WI Sunday.
This may bring a chance of showers across southern MN into IA
and SD, but dry high pressure to the north will limit the
northern extent of any precip. The high will slide east to the
Great Lakes Sunday night and warm air advection will begin
across the Upper Midwest as a potent trough advances into the
northern Plains. Very strong moisture advection will be brought
on by a 55 kt LLJ Monday and pwats are expected to increase to
just short of 2 inches. Isentropic lift will allow widespread
showers to develop across the region, but the trough will swing
through quickly and limit the residence time of the activity. In
addition, the surface warm front will remain well to the south
across southwestern IA and keep the more efficient thunderstorms
anchored there. Models continue to trend down on QPF, ranging
from a GEFS mean around a 1/3 inch on the low side to 1/2-3/4
inch with most of the other ensemble systems. Given the lift
and moisture in place, thinking at least a half inch is
probable. If heavier rates sustain themselves for a little
while longer then we`ll see numbers closer to an inch. A front
will drape itself from northern WI to southeast MN and
northwest IA Monday night. The entrance region of the LLJ will
strengthen across IA and impinge on the front allowing for
another round of showers and storms to develop along it before
sliding southeast Tuesday. The highest QPF will be found in this
corridor with 1-2 inches expected.

For the rest of next week, zonal flow will continue with mid
level ridging remaining anchored in place across the south. A
nearly stationary front will draped from the central Plains to
mid Mississippi Valley and will keep the hot and humid air well
to the south. It will also act as a focus for numerous rounds of
showers and thunderstorms. At this time the odds of being under
the influence of dry high pressure outweigh the prospects of
any significant rain associated with the front for us.
Seasonably cool air will remain in place until further notice
with highs in the 60s and low 70s and lows in the 40s or 50s.
Some 30s are possible across northern MN and northern/central WI
at times.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Line of showers and storms will be east of EAU to open the 6z
period. Cannot rule out a trailing shower at RNH/EAU early in
the period, however heavier precipitation chances have largely
diminished. A passing cold front has resulted in a wind shift
out of the WNW at RWF & AXN and will continue eastward through
daybreak. Made a few minor updates to timing of the expected
wind shift at the eastern MN/western WI terminals. WNW winds
will gust up to 20kts or so through much of the day. Otherwise,
VFR with mid-to-high clouds moving across the Upper Midwest.

KMSP...Precipitation chances have departed to the east of the
terminal to open the 6z period. Winds shift out of the WNW as a
frontal passage occurs between 7-9z. Breezy WNW winds gust up
to 20kts late morning through the afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
MON...-SHRA/MVFR likely, chc IFR. Wind SE 10-15G30kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Strus