237
FXUS63 KMPX 011832
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
132 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly quiet through the week, with only a few minor rain
  chances.

- Temperatures will run a few degrees above normal, but
  otherwise remain seasonable (highs in the 50s, lows in mid
  30s).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Conditions have quieted across southern and central Minnesota
and western Wisconsin. Some rays of sun are peeking through the
low clouds that remain in the low`s wake. Light rain has moved
from the area and things should remain dry for the rest of the
day, and likely on Sunday as well. The cloud cover should
prevent fog from developing overnight tonight, and keep it
slightly warmer that areas with clear skies. During the day,
however, these clouds will prevent any significant warming,
keeping our max Ts this afternoon in the mid 40s. This should be
the last day this week with highs this "cool", as forecast temps
are in the low to mid 50s for the next seven days. This is a few
degrees above climatological normals for the first week of
November.

On Sunday, a front will pass though in association with a
jetstreak, bringing low (less than 20%) PoPs into the forecast.
This could result in scattered light rain/sprinkles across the
area, with the better chances existing NE of I-94 corridor. A
strong pressure gradient across the northern Minnesota will lead
to gusty winds. The winds will be the most noticeable weather
feature, with widespread gusts of 20-25MPH Sunday afternoon,
with a few 30MPH gusts not out of the question.

Monday through the end of the period, several shortwaves will
undulate across the Upper Midwest. None of which look very
impressive as they miss the area to the north on Tuesday and to
the south later in the week. For the later two fronts, the
mid-level vorticity driving them will be farther south. This
could result in southern MN and western WI seeing some light
rain. At this point, decent uncertainty remains due to the
spread of the strength of the waves. However, the one for next
weekend does at least show potential for spinning up a stronger
low pressure system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Cigs will start to improve this afternoon as the upper low
moves farther away. Overnight, we should see some clearing as
the ridge axis moves through, helping setup southerly winds.
Winds will also be increasing towards the end of the period,
with gusts 25+ kts possible everywhere, especially at AXN.

KMSP...Cigs have been troublesome this morning, bouncing right
around 2kft, but should hold on the upward trend and remain
VFR. By Sunday morning, we`ll be seeing some gusty
south/southwest winds develop as mixing deepens, by 18z Sunday,
we could have gusts pushing 30 kts in a direction that will be
becoming an increasingly cross- wind for the main parallels.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind SSW 15-20G30kts.
MON...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...PV