770
FXUS63 KMPX 140740
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
140 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much above normal temperatures today with highs in the 60s
  with some 70s possible.

- A cold front will pass through tonight into Saturday bringing
  a chance of light rain and more seasonable temperatures for
  next week.

- No strong signal for precipitation, but chances return next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Temperatures will peak today as 850 mb temperatures will be up
around 18 degrees Celsius. This warm air is advecting in from
the west and combined with clear to mostly clear skies ahead of
the frontal passage temperatures will rise into the 60s to even
lower 70s. The best chance for some lower 70s will be across
parts of western and southern Minnesota where the thermal ridge
will be at its peak. These temperatures do not look likely to
break records, but are still 20 to 25 degrees F warmer than
normal. For example the record at MSP Airport today is 71, so
possible but not likely as this is on the extreme high end of
guidance. This warmth does not last long as a cold front will
move through tonight into Saturday. The coldest air looks likely
to remain over the Great Lakes, so a return to more seasonable
temperatures seems most likely. This front should provide plenty
of lift, so the question then moves on to what is the saturation
of the atmosphere. Looking at forecast soundings as frontal
passage occurs moisture looks to be the limiting factor.
Saturation does look to increase as temperatures fall and clouds
are likely, but the question moves to the depth of the
saturation. Ensemble model guidance keeps PoP chances low due to
this lack of depth in saturation through the vertical profile.
The best chances among ensemble membership look to be across
central Minnesota into western Wisconsin tonight into early
Saturday morning where more of the atmosphere can saturate.
Little QPF expected due to the aforementioned lack of moisture.
Any precipitation that does fall would be rain based on the
vertical thermal profile.

Behind Saturday`s cold front we look to be in more of a split
flow pattern, as the last discussion mentioned. This keeps the
best chances for precipitation to our north and south. However
one shortwave does get close late Monday into Tuesday and
another larger wave near the end of next week. The early week
chance at the moment looks to keep the best chances to our
south. The late next week system looks like it could be a larger
system, but as is common this time of year the final track of
the surface low will be key in determining if we see any
impacts. At the moment global deterministic models keep the
track well to our south. So in summary a few chances for
precipitation, but no strong chances. This split flow also keeps
us generally between the warmer and colder airmasses. So the
temperature forecast looks to trend toward seasonable with
highs around 40.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Mostly clear and quiet through daybreak. Forecast soundings
still hint at the potential for some patchy ground fog across
the region, however no mention is needed in the TAFs. Southerly
winds increase to between 10-15kts Friday afternoon. High clouds
will increase through end of the period, prior to the passage
of a cold front. The frontal passage and associated wind shift
will occur towards the end of the 6z period and has been
introduced with a 220-240 line at the end of most of the new
TAFs.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10G20 kts.
MON...Mainly VFR, MVFR ceilings possible late. Wind NE 5-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...Strus