125
FXUS63 KMPX 231827
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
127 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Next chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday night into
  Tuesday, some chance for severe with marginal (1 of 5) risks.

- Generally near normal temperatures over the next week, but
  slightly warmer than normal on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Similar today to what we experienced yesterday with high
pressure still present over the Upper Midwest. More diurnal
cumulus as well as the atmosphere has heated, but lighter winds
aloft have preventing a repeat of yesterday`s gusty winds.
Tonight will also be similar to last night with ample
radiational cooling and some patchy fog in the cooler locations.
The high moving out and a shift in the pattern will make this
cooler area mainly across eastern Minnesota and western
Wisconsin. For western Minnesota, there has been a shift in the
rain chances for tonight with most of the rain now most likely
to stay south/west of the Minnesota River Valley and be kept
within southwest Minnesota and areas farther to the southwest.
Maybe parts of Martin County could see rain, but overall we look
to miss out on this round.

Monday and Tuesday will be driven by the shortwave moving across
the Canadian Prairies with the fronts associated with it moving
across the Upper Midwest. There will be a warming trend Monday
and Tuesday as warm air advection associated with the
circulation around this system occurs. This will come to an end
as the cold frontal passage occurs, most likely in the later
half of Tuesday. We could see some storms occur the later half
of Monday into Tuesday morning associated more with the warm air
advection and warm front with the support of a jet streak. Any
severe chances here would be more in North Dakota and northwest
Minnesota, but some chances extend further south into west
central Minnesota as shown by the SPC marginal (1 of 5) risk.
The better chance for some more widespread rain and storm
chances will be the cold frontal passage later in the day on
Tuesday. The main questions here will be familiar if you have
been reading discussions over the past few days: timing of the
frontal passage and moisture. If we had more moisture present
this could easily be a fairly widespread event, but that still
is a limiting factor in not just global ensemble solutions, but
now CAMs as well. On the timing side it will be locations with
frontal passage later in the day, as instability is able to
build some, that could see convection come together. This
should keep activity generally across eastern MN and western WI.
With the questionable moisture rain will be very dependent on
CI rather than the larger scale synoptic forcing of the front.
So this will be the usual some winners and many losers with
respect to the rain that we need. The rain deficit for the
summer continues to grow with drought now across much of the
broader region. Shear does not look great, so some doubt about
higher end severe and sustained deep convection. This lines up
with the SPC marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for areas along and
east of I-35.

Cooler air moves in on Wednesday behind the cold front, with
temperatures still near normal. Rain chances related to some
lift closer to the surface low will generally stay to our north
across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on
Wednesday. Thursday into Friday morning higher pressure moves in
with quiet weather and near normal temps. Late Friday into the
next weekend is when our next system moves in. Differences
between both the deterministic global models and their ensemble
systems still have NBM PoPs spread out over this period. This
should start to cluster more as it approaches to get a better
idea of when this next system is most likely to occur.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Satellite captures another afternoon of blossoming Cu across
eastern MN and western WI, so have increased to SCT-BKN
coverage at MSP/STC/RNH/EAU. Winds are much less intense than
yesterday afternoon. Showers and a few storms are forecast to
develop across the eastern Dakotas overnight, however there is
strong agreement that precipitation will remain west of AXN &
RWF. VFR high clouds (10k+ feet) associated with the convection
will overspread the region from west to east heading into
Monday morning. Patchy ground fog between 11-13z appears
possible at RNH/EAU and a TEMPO for brief visibility reductions
may be needed in a forthcoming TAF issuance. Winds turn
southeasterly by daybreak at all sites.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind SW 10-20 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...Strus