254
FXUS63 KMPX 230526
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1226 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures warm after today, with another heat wave expected
  to arrive this weekend lasting through much of next week.

- A couple chances for isolated storms Friday night and Sunday
  night, otherwise no significant precipitation expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

The cumulus field that was present early this morning has shown no
signs of dissipating with expansive cumulus across all of WI and
into much of MN, with the clearing line stretching from roughly
Alexandria south through Willmar and towards Redwood Falls as of
around 2pm. Forecast soundings show enough saturation from 5-7kft
that as long as we continue to mix this field of clouds is unlikely
to change, meaning we will probably seem them lingering through 8-
9pm before beginning to dissipate. The overnight hours will be
uneventful with light winds and clearing skies, with some patchy fog
possible mainly in western WI from roughly 4am through 9am. Tomorrow
will be similar to today but with near normal temperatures in the
low 80s amidst partly cloudy skies with fair weather cumulus once
again.

We warm up significantly by Saturday as another western CONUS ridge
begins to strengthen with rising heights centered over Colorado
resulting in a similar pattern to our last heat wave, as highs look
to reach the low 90s by Saturday and remain in the 90s into early
next week. There is still some fairly significant spread in the
greater ensemble guidance for temperatures throughout next week,
with the ECMWF/EPS on the hotter side compared to the GFS/GEFS, with
the primary difference being how far northeast the ridge ends up.
Both sets of guidance would favor heights at 500mb building towards
that 600dm mark that we reached with our last heat wave, and as of
the 12/18z runs suggest 597dm heights at its peak for now. The
GFS/GEFS keep the ridge a tad farther west, which lines up
northwesterly flow at 500mb across the area and gives us a chance
for ridge rider shortwaves which could produce some isolated to
scattered convection, which would eat into our temperatures via
precipitation or cloud cover. The ECMWF/EPS produce a slightly
stronger ridge and also place it far east, which would result in
lower chances for storms and clearer skies, resulting in warmer
temperatures. The NBM took the middle ground and keeps us in the low
to mid 90s through Monday before dropping back to upper 80s to near
90 for the rest of next week, which seems like a happy medium for
now. Most guidance would suggest continued above normal temperatures
through the rest of the month and into early August, with the main
difference being are we around 5 degrees above normal like the GEFS
or 10-15 degrees above normal like the EPS. The forecast
temperatures are by no means locked in but being above normal is all
but a certainty at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Calm to light and variable winds overnight into the early
morning. Winds will remain under 10 knots, but will pick up from
calm in the late morning. VFR clear sky to mostly clear sky over
the period. With the calm wind and clear sky setup we could see
some mist or fog setup. Of the terminals the greatest chance
would be RNH and EAU. Confidence was not high enough for
inclusion in the TAFs, but this is where attention will be paid
for possible amendments.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind S 10-15 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW to W 7-12 kts.
SUN...VFR, -TSRA possible late. Wind S 7-12 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...NDC