997
FXUS63 KMPX 181123
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
523 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures and dew points has lowered the likelihood
  of accumulating snow this morning. Thus we have canceled the
  Winter Weather Advisory.

- Rain could still transition over to a wintry mix of snow &
  sleet this morning over portions of eastern Minnesota &
  western Wisconsin, but any slushy accumulations are expected
  to remain under 1".

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

The main question mark for the winter weather potential with
this system was whether temperatures would end up a degree or
two above/below freezing, & sure enough we are seeing
temperatures on the warm end of freezing overnight - with all
stations across southern Minnesota reporting rain or a mix of
rain & ice pellets so far. Warmer than forecast dew points have
been the main culprit, with dew points of 33-35 degrees within
the band of rain preventing bulb cooling from reaching the
freezing mark. Thus we`ve removed any chance of snowfall
accumulation across southern Minnesota, with maybe a light
wintry mix of rain, ice pellets, & a few snowflakes through
early morning.

Slightly farther north towards the US 212/I-94 corridor
(mainly the far-southern Twin Cities metro through Eau Claire),
we still can`t totally rule out some wintry weather this
morning where dew points are currently much cooler & thus could
lower wet bulb temperatures to near freezing as the band of
precipitation spreads northwards. Any chance for multiple
inches of snowfall accumulation looks very unlikely, but a few
hours of slushy snow & sleet with accumulations of half an inch
to an inch still appears possible once the rain changes over to
a wintry mix, generally between 7-10 this morning. Any travel
impacts this morning would likely only be limited to lower
visibility once the changeover to snow/sleet occurs, so we have
opted to drop the Winter Weather Advisory as as surface
temperatures will be warm enough to prevent any freezing on the
roads.

Precipitation could continue to near noon across southeast
Minnesota & western Wisconsin, but rising temperatures will
likely changeover any light snow or sleet back to rain by late
morning. Highs will then warm into the low to mid 40d across
central Minnesota & northwest Wisconsin, to the upper 30s across
southern Minnesota. For Wednesday, light rain could skirt across
central Minnesota during the evening but the bulk of any
precipitation will remain over northern Minnesota. Looking
ahead, another extended stretch of warm & dry weather looks
likely with ensemble guidance suggesting temperature anomalies
of 5-10 degrees above normal & low chances for precipitation
well into Thanksgiving week. Highs will generally be in the
upper 40s to low 50s with lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

The forecast has ended up on the warmer side of the range of
solutions. This has kept the precipitation so far this morning
rain rather than snow. For the terminals some snow could mix in
at EAU later this morning, otherwise it will most likely stay
rain. Generally MVFR ceilings associated with this precipitation.
Expect a clearing to VFR afternoon/evening with some lowering
ceilings again tonight. Some guidance suggests as low as IFR
tonight, but going to give it a few more runs before I am
confident in ceilings going that low tonight.

KMSP...Overall the terminal area is right on the northern edge
of precipitation this morning. So opted to stick with a TEMPO for
the morning. While rain is in the vicinity MVFR ceilings are
expected. Clearing to VFR this afternoon as everything clears
out behind the system. Ceilings to fall again late this evening
into tonight. More MVFR ceilings will be possible.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR, IFR CIGS possible. Wind S 5-10 kts.
THU...MVFR. Wind SW bcmg NW 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW bcmg SW 5 kts.
&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...NDC