968
FXUS63 KMPX 122023
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
223 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions through the weekend, rain chances increase Monday
  night into Tuesday.

- Mild temperatures for the remainder of the week. Highs in the mid
  to upper 50s Thursday and mid to upper 60s Friday.

- Cooler, more seasonable temperatures arrive the second half
  of the weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Latest GOES satellite imagery highlights an area of scattered high
level clouds beginning to move into southwestern Minnesota.
Elsewhere, it`s been mostly sunny with temperatures warming into the
low to mid 50s with gusty northwest winds. Winds will decrease this
evening and cloud cover will continue to increase overnight.
Temperatures cool into the lower 30s. Space weather enthusiasts will
note that there is the potential for another night of the Aurora
Borealis (Northern Lights) as the 3rd CME impacts Earth sometime
between now and tonight. Those of us looking to capture the light
show will have to be cognizant of the scattered high level clouds.
These shouldn`t prevent us from enjoying the potential light show -
but could limit the experience versus last night`s impressive
display.

Thursday & Friday will offer a great chance to wrap up any outdoor
projects you may have put off thus far. Temperatures will be mild,
highs in the mid to upper 50s on Thursday and mid to upper 60s on
Friday, with plenty of sunshine. This will likely be the last 60 of
the year for the Twin Cities barring an unforeseen warm up next
week. Winds will be southeasterly on Friday with gusts 25 to 30 mph
possible. Our frontal passage arrives Saturday with northwest winds
ushering in cooler temperatures. Highs touch the 50s, but it`ll feel
like November again. Precipitation chances have continued to
decrease and PoPs have followed the trend. I wouldn`t rule out some
isolated light rain or sprinkles/drizzle Saturday but it will not be
enough to impact any outdoor activity. Sunday through early next
week will turn colder. Temperatures will closely align with seasonal
norms, highs in the lower 40s and lows at or below freezing. The
pattern aloft is underwhelming with continued -NAO blocking
downstream (Greenland high/ridge) and west coast troughing. The
trough will eject from the SW US into the Plains by Tuesday with a
sfc low somewhere in the region. Guidance favors this storm staying
just off to our south but enough precipitation makes it north into
MN/WI. Right now this falls as rain given no clear "cold air" source
to tap into. There is enough spread where some ensemble members have
a strong, more organized low vs a sheared out wave that is too flat
to produce appreciable precipitation here. So for now the 20 to 40
PoPs seem fair that the NBM has but it could trend drier. The next
week to ten days looks fairly dry. There are some hints beginning to
peak through that suggest our mild/dry pattern may becoming to an
end the week of Thanksgiving. We`ll have to wait & see!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Main issue this period will be a wind shift as a surface ridge
moves through. Basically, all TAFs have three lines, the first
has the gusts we`ll continue to see today, the second gets rid
of the gusts but keeps the WNW direction, and we switch over to
the S/SE by Thursday morning. Clouds will be nothing more than
some debris cirrus spilling over the top of the upper ridge to
our west.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind S 10-15G20 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts bcmg NW 15-20G30 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...MPG