813
FXUS63 KMPX 302034
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
234 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder than normal conditions continue through and beyond the
  first week of December, with the first widespread sub-zero
  morning of the season coming Thursday.

- There will be multiple chances for snow over the next week
  with passing clippers, but any snow amounts we see will be
  very light.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

It`s much quieter than 24 hours ago, with the upper midwest under
the influence of a shortwave ridge embedded with the mean long wave
trough that extends from the Great Basin to the mid-Atlantic. For
tonight, the main uncertainty is cloud cover. Large portions of the
area will start the night with clear skies, but we`ll also have a
batch of persistent stratus from northwest WI back down to south
central MN. If a location can spend a good 6 hours under clear
skies, then they should be able to drop down below zero given the
light winds, but if clouds persist, then dropping below the teens
above zero will be difficult. Basically, it`s a big bust potential
on the lows tonight given the dependence on cloud cover.

For Monday, we`ll see the shortwave currently over the 4-corners
region head toward Missouri. Though most of the forcing will remain
south of us, a quick look at soundings show south central through
east central MN and western WI will have favorable moisture and
thermal profiles within the DGZ such that it should take very little
forcing to get some light snow going. We`ll have some weak low level
WAA on Monday and we`re seeing some models like the RAP and HRRR
having just enough forcing to kick out some very low QPF into
southeast MN and western WI. We switched from NBM over to ConShort
for PoPs on Monday, since the later had some pops in the 20s/30s in
southeastern portions of our CWA. Even if it does snow, over
achieving would be getting a half inch (0.5) of snow, so no
significant impacts are expected with this.

Southerly winds and "milder" temperatures will continue through
Tuesday out ahead of a strong cold front that will slam across our
area Tuesday night. We still anticipate light snow on the front.
However, this is a setup the NBM always struggles with. One or two
hundredths of QPF and a 2-4 hour window for snowfall. It did at
least broad brush some 20-40 PoPs, but we suspect PoPs will increase
for Tuesday night as we get closer and can start nailing down that 2-
4 hour wind for snow. Once again, over achieving for snow with this
front would be getting all of a half inch (0.5) of new snow. Behind
the front, we`ll have falling temperatures during the day on
Wednesday, with lows for Wednesday night/Thursday morning continuing
to trend colder. This looks like an ideal radiational cooling night
with a fresh snowpack. This mornings run of the NBM now has lows
double digits below zero Thursday morning for all but the core of
the Twin Cities metro in our coverage area. Record lows Thursday
morning are -12 (EAU), -15 (MSP), and -16 (STC), these are some of
the "warmest" record lows in the month of December. Although we`re
currently not forecasting any record lows, we will be getting
uncomfortably close.

For the rest of the forecast, it`s northwest flow, cold, and
clippers. Within the models, you can find clipper potential locally
Friday, Saturday, Monday, and Tuesday. In all cases, over achieving
would be 0.2" of liquid and 3 inches of snow with any single wave,
so in all cases, the snow would be cosmetic in nature. As for the
cold, Sunday looks to be the coldest day with another Canadian high
moving through that will be followed by another good chance at going
below zero for lows Sunday night/Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

MVFR conditions with low clouds and a few light snow showers
this afternoon. These low clouds should clear out from northwest
to southeast later today, with VFR conditions expected into the
evening and overnight hours.

On Monday, winds will become southeast, and mid level clouds
will increase, along with a chance for some light snow showers
late morning and early afternoon at KRWF, KMKT, and KMSP. These
snow showers could also impact KRWF and KEAU during the
afternoon, but that is beyond the time frame of this TAF
issuance.

KMSP...
MVFR conditions this afternoon with a few light snow showers /
flurries, but no accumulation or runway impacts are expected.
Low clouds should clear out later today, perhaps as early as the
evening rush. Winds will be northwest, but take on a southeast
direction overnight.

Did add a Prob30 for snow showers Monday afternoon. For now, not
expecting more than a dusting. The higher end scenario is
around a half inch.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR clouds with IFR/-SN possible late. Wind SW 5-10kts.
WED...MVFR with -SN possible early. Wind NW 10-15kts.
THU...VFR and cold. Wind SW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...JRB