794
FXUS63 KMPX 250751
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
251 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple chances for rain through next week. Heaviest rainfall
  amounts expected across western MN Monday and Monday night.

- Following a cooldown early in the period, the forecast is
  trending warmer later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Early Sunday morning temperatures are running between 10-20 degrees
cooler than 24-hours ago following Saturday`s cold frontal passage.
The front has stalled to the southeast of the forecast area and
currently extends from central IA northeast into central WI.
Locally, rain showers tied to a slow-moving moisture axis are
expanding northeast out of southwestern MN and have reached the Twin
Cities Metro. It`s taken some time for the light precipitation to
expand eastward due to the aforementioned PWAT/mid-level moisture
axis serving as the driver of the shower chances (as opposed to the
much more progressive surface front). Rain showers are forecast to
linger through daybreak, eventually waning with time as the moisture
axis slides south and drier air moves in.

Cool and cloudy weather will be the theme to close the weekend,
along with additional chances for light rain. Afternoon highs will
struggle to warm out of the mid-50s for most locations. An upper-low
currently spinning over the Four Corners region is forecast to lift
north towards the Upper Midwest today into tomorrow. Mid-level warm
advection will increase ahead of this feature, which will support
the redevelopment of band of light precipitation across southern MN
later this morning. The band is forecast to slowly lift north
through the afternoon and evening in association with a northward
shifting moisture axis. The highest PoPs are located across western
MN, where forecast soundings depict greatest saturation. The upper-
low will pivot across the Great Plains tonight, spawning surface low
pressure progged to track from central NE into northwestern MN. This
will set the stage for a longer duration measurable rainfall event
that will cover a good portion of the forecast area on Monday.
Guidance illustrates the development of a broad precipitation shield
ahead of the surface low, supported by isentropic ascent and PWATs
200%+ of normal. Given the compact nature of this system, the
regional swath of heaviest rainfall will be relatively narrow and
highly track dependent. Fortunately, there has been little change in
the overall placement of this zone across the guidance suite, as
deterministic, global ensemble, and machine learning solutions are
in fairly solid agreement that the axis of heaviest rainfall (1"-
1.5") will setup across eastern SD into far western MN. Rainfall
amounts will lessen to the east of this swath, with corresponding
amounts falling to a quarter to half inch or so from Mankato to the
Twin Cities. Dry air flowing in from the southeast and displacement
from the strongest forcing will limit amounts to a few hundredths
across southeastern MN and most of western WI. The widespread rain
will bring even cooler temperatures (40s) for Monday`s highs. The
precipitation shield will lift north of the forecast area by Tuesday
morning.

A lull in the rain activity is forecast for much of the daytime
hours Tuesday. However, the next shortwave in the active pattern is
progged to advance east of the Rockies through the day. Associated
surface low is forecast to translate northeast from the Dakotas into
southern Canada, which places the Upper Midwest on the warm side of
the system. Winds turn southerly on Tuesday and will combine with
WAA to support highs climbing back into the mid 60s along and south
of I-94 (perhaps near 70 along I-90). A warm front will lift through
the region and spawn addition scattered shower chances later
Tuesday. A few rumbles of thunder will also be possible. Mostly dry
weather returns for Wednesday, though a few showers will be possible
across the southeastern portion of the forecast area. Temperatures
should remain quite mild in the 60s.

There are two trends to highlight in the medium to extended forecast
period (late week into the upcoming weekend): 1) The NBM is running
warmer at the end of the work week, which follows the recent upward
shift in ensemble guidance likely owing to large scale ridging.
Could another 70 degree observation be in the cards for MSP prior to
the end of October? Time will tell, but several members of ensemble
suite suggest it is plausible on Friday! 2) There is a growing
signal for wet weather next weekend across both global ensembles and
machine learning counterparts. Unfortunately, the where and when is
somewhat hard to decipher, but with western troughing set to follow
the warm up, a system producing wet weather across the Upper Midwest
is a possibility. The 40-60 PoPs from the NBM on Halloween may look
a little spooky, but it is too early to lock into a wet forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A band of light rain showers is slowly moving to the northeast
across southwestern MN. The only terminal observing showers
currently is RWF, however it`s possible that MKT, MSP, and
potentially RNH observe a period of light precipitation between
now and daybreak. A band of showers is forecast to redevelop
across southern MN mid-morning and gradually lift north. Once
again, anticipate precipitation rates to be on the lighter
side and have generally opted to follow RAP/CAM guidance for
onset times. VFR cigs and light northerly winds expected
throughout the period. The only exception is at RNH, where a
localized deck of MVFR stratus is present at initiation.
Forecast soundings suggest the low stratus will lift prior to
daybreak.

KMSP...Batch of VFR showers is moving towards the terminal from
the southwest. Maintained a tempo for showers through 10z, prior
to an anticipated lull in activity. Band of showers is forecast
to lift north this afternoon, which has prompted the inclusion
of prevailing VFR -SHRA starting at 20z. Cigs remain VFR through
the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...-RA/MVFR likely, chc IFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.
TUE...Chc A.M. -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15kts.
WED...Chc A.M. -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SW 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...Strus