693
FXUS63 KMPX 102015
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
215 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow ends in eastern MN/western WI this evening. Minor
accumulations possible until it departs.

- Another snow-bearing system arrives late morning tomorrow in SW
MN, spreads east into the afternoon/evening.

- Bitter cold this weekend, coldest Sunday morning with wind chills
dropping from -30 to -35F.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

We continue to see light snow falling across portions of eastern
Minnesota into western Wisconsin this afternoon as some lingering
upper level forcing on top of the low level stratus is enough to
squeeze some flakes out of a shallow DGZ. This activity is expected
to taper off into the evening with the strongest echoes pushing
southeast towards Rochester over the next few hours, following the
track of the lingering upper level forcing. Additional accumulations
have ranged from around 0.5 to 1 inch at the most in the stronger
bands, with a few tenths of an inch for those who just saw some
nuisance lighter snow. The forcing will continue to weaken overnight
as the upper level occluded low spinning over the northern Great
Lakes will begin to progress eastwards as upper level flow tilts
more westerly over the northern CONUS ahead of our next incoming
system.

Speaking of which, yet another chance for snow will arrive late
Thursday morning in western MN with a significant amount of model
disparity leading to uncertainty even as we are within 24 hours of
the start of precipitation for the area. The blended NBM guidance
shows a large footprint of QPF and snow across the southern half of
the MPX CWA due to the influence of the longer range CAM guidance
taking the surface low much farther northeast than the deterministic
synoptic guidance, which is in turn farther east than the
ensemble/AIFS guidance which has been the overall winner as far as
location of systems goes over our last few systems. The AIFS
ensemble mean keeps the low pressure center over western Nebraska,
compared to the 12z HRRR which brings it to SW MN resulting in
almost a 200 mile difference in the position of the surface low.
This will obviously have an extremely large impact on the forecast
not only in how much QPF there is, but also precipitation types as
the 540 line looks to cross through the surface system resulting in
the potential for multiple wintry p-types. If the trend we have
experienced over the last few events continues, we would expect the
high resolution and synoptic guidance to trend towards the AIFS over
the next few model runs, which would push the highest QPF and
potential for mixed p-types towards our neighboring offices to the
east including FSD/ABR. As such, our forecast reflects our latest
thinking in that the western solution should be favored, resulting
in lower QPF and therefore snow amounts across the area. This would
also limit our p-types to only snow, keeping the potential for a
wintry mix including freezing rain to our west and south. Snow
amounts ranging from around 1-2 inches in southwestern MN along the
Minnesota River and along I-90 would decrease to around 0.5 to 1
inch in Mankato, further decreasing to under 0.5 inches for the rest
of the area. A secondary upper level trough moving through Manitoba
could also force an area of CVA, resulting in a few light snow
showers near sunrise Friday, favoring along and north of I-94 with a
few tenths of an inch of additional accumulation possible.

Behind the last of the light snow on Friday morning, we look to dry
out and cool off significantly as an arctic high drops down bringing
the coldest air of the season over the weekend, with the overall
coldest period from Saturday night through Sunday morning. The
aforementioned Manitoba upper level system looks to settle over the
northern Great Lakes, with stacked northwesterly flow across the
entire troposphere and an influx of arctic air including in the
lower levels on Saturday. High temperatures may struggle to stay
above zero throughout the day as the cold air moves in with 850mb
temps of -20 to -25C by 00z Saturday evening. The cold air and
subsidence will drop to the surface with temperatures as cold as -15
to -20F early Sunday, with enough surface wind to force wind chills
as cold as -30 to -35F. We may need some cold headlines for Sunday
in particular, but will hold off for now as we still have a few days
before it arrives and the forecast may fluctuate just a little bit.
The cold air is locked in however so headline or not, prepare for a
cold few nights over the weekend!

There are some bright lights at the end of the cold tunnel, as
Monday looks to see a significant resurgence of warmer air into the
region in the lower levels, with 850mb temps surging above freezing
by 15-18z as upper level flow shifts more westerly kicking the
colder arctic air to the east. This warmer trend continues next week
with our low level temperatures remaining above freezing such that
high temperatures beginning Tuesday through the week should be near
or even above freezing, resulting in some minor snow melt throughout
the week. Additional precipitation also looks absent with a lack of
forcing, with our next chance for some light precipitation arriving
towards the very end of the period on Thursday meaning low
confidence for now. Ensemble guidance showcases the warmup nicely,
although most trend the model mean back towards our normal mid to
upper 20s highs in the metro with lows in the teens by late week and
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1149 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

A band of light snow that is currently pestering STC,
MKT, and MSP will continue to make its way southeastward early this
afternoon. Snowfall rates could increase slightly to where
conditions fall at times to IFR conditions hence tempo groupings
were distributed accordingly for mainly our central sites.
Exception was given to RNH who could see MVFR snow due to the
heaviest snowfall rates remaining to their west. EAU is expected
to remain snow free. MVFR cigs across all sites will be slow to
improve through the rest of today but should begin to scatter
out to low VFR late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Breezy
20-25kt winds will decrease through the afternoon before
becoming light and variable tonight. Winds tomorrow will shift
southerly around 5-10kts.

KMSP...MVFR light snow is expected to continue through the first
half of this afternoon. Did include a near-term tempo for any short
burst of better snowfall rates between 18 and 21z. Breezy 20kt
northwesterly winds decrease by mid-afternoon before becoming
light and variable overnight. Cigs will will remain in MVFR
through tonight before scattering out to low VFR tomorrow
morning. Winds shift South-southeasterly tomorrow morning. Some
light VFR/MVFR light snow is possible in the early afternoon
hours Thursday therefore introduced a prob30 late in the period.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR/SN early. VFR late. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W early, bcmg S 5-10kts

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...Dye