759
FXUS63 KMPX 152322
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
622 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across southern
  Minnesota.

- Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms across much of the area
  Monday afternoon & evening. Tornadoes, large hail, and
  damaging winds are all possible.

- Active pattern continues through the week.

- Warmer and humid next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Currently most of MN and WI reside under a brief hiatus from all of
the rainfall over the past few days but you may not want to stow
away the umbrella just yet. Cloud cover on satellite has eroded
slightly across southern Minnesota where temperatures are forecasted
to reach near 80 this afternoon with muggier dew points reaching the
upper 60s. Just off to our west, a quasi-stationary front resides
over eastern SD. Convection has already developed along this
boundary to which is expected to slowly move eastward throughout
this afternoon and evening. Similar to yesterday`s precip
evolution, these storms appear to be following a 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE gradient which will be maximized across mainly southern
Minnesota. With meager instability and lack of sufficient shear,
any threats with these storms will be heavy rainfall, small
hail, isolated gusty winds. These storms chances will linger
into tonight although coverage and intensity will be weaker as
we loose surface heating.

Tomorrow continues to remain the primary focus in the forecast
period. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of central
and southern Minnesota and portions of western Wisconsin under
an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather Monday
afternoon and evening. A shortwave is expected to make its way
across the Dakotas during the pre-dawn hours of Monday morning
which could result in a potential MCS developing. Now, this is
where the event becomes "conditional." Should an MCS develop
over the Dakotas and persist into the morning across MN (as
suggested in the 19z RAP), chances for strong to severe
convection decrease as the atmosphere struggles to destabilize
Monday afternoon. The alternative scenario is if the MCS can
weaken early enough in the morning (as suggested by the 18z
HRRR), the environment then would be expected to become quite
unstable with MUCAPE values nearing 4000 J/kg, with increasing
deep layer shear. Initial storm mode would begin as supercells
capable of producing all hazard types through the early
afternoon before congealing into a QLCS by early evening which
then transitions to a primary wind threat.

As we continue into the week, the overall weather pattern continues
to be active. Troughing looks to dip south across the MN/IA border
by midweek which should give us another brief break from the rain.
h850 ridging is expected to gradually build through the week, which
means much warmer and muggier air will fill in just in time by next
weekend. Forecasted highs by Friday and Saturday are expected to
near 90 degrees with dew points near 70 in most areas.
Rain/thunder chances wont dwindle as the location of this
ridging pattern does place the upper midwest in a "ring of fire"
setup for daily chances of precip. Confidence in the timing and
coverage for these precip events is still yet to be determined.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Another tricky TAF period with multiple chances for -TSRA amidst
mainly MVFR CIGS throughout. The first potential round of storms
is moving through SW MN at TAF start and will slowly migrate
eastwards through 06z, weakening as it does to the point where
high-resolution models do not keep them together through all of
Minnesota. A complex of storms moving out of the Dakotas from
roughly 12-18z will be the first chance at -TSRA across most of
the sites, followed by another round generally after 19-20z with
intensity dependent on where/how the morning round of storms
moves through. Given the significant uncertainties regarding
timing throughout the guidance, stuck with prob30s as the go to
for the peak storm periods, with the hope being to narrow the
timing and increase the confidence once we have better ground
truth to work with.

KMSP...There may be -TSRA before 13z as is currently in the TAF,
however high-resolution guidance generally breaks up the early
morning activity in favor of a mid morning round. Expect timing
changes with the 06z/12z TAF periods as we continue to refine
the timing of any -TSRA throughout.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR/MVFR chc IFR/-TSRA. Wind NW 5-10kts.
WED...MVFR/-SHRA chc IFR/-TSRA. Wind N 5-10kts.
THU...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind W 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...TDH