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FXUS63 KMPX 292005
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
305 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions continue this afternoon through Friday night, with
scattered showers returning on Saturday followed by more persistent
and widespread rain Monday through Tuesday.

- Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal through the
  middle of next week.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Latest water vapor imagery details upper-level troughing near the
Hudson Bay region. To our west, ridging extends into the southern
Canadian Prairies and is allowing for zonal flow over the northern
plains. A 1025mb sfc high is the primary culprit for today`s
beautiful conditions. This high pressure continues to erode the
blanket of low stratus over the northern half of MN and WI from
early this morning. With plentiful sunshine expected for the
rest of this afternoon, temperatures should reach the the upper
50s for most sites otherwise areas from a line northwest of Mora
down to Benson can expect lower 50s. A band of mid-level cu
that exists over the Dakotas moves in this evening which belongs
to a weak sfc low. Luckily, this low is starved of any moisture
therefore PoPs will remain null tonight. If you do have any
evening plans, you may want to grab the jacket as lows dip down
into the upper 30s for most. A few sites north and east of a
line from Little Falls over to Ladysmith could dabble into the
upper 20s. Northwesterly winds will continue to decrease through
this evening and becoming light and variable overnight.

Tomorrow`s forecast will be similar to what we have saw today
although a few more clouds will be lingering around. The
previously mentioned troughing pattern slides farther east and
will pull its trailing surface cold front northward late Friday
into Saturday. This northward retreat will help some moisture
filter back into our neck of the woods and provide rain chances
on Saturday. Based off latest NBM guidance, the strongest
chances for precip remain across south-central MN. As of right
now, any trick or treating plans do not appear to be a washout
from rain but you may want to keep an umbrella handy. Saturday`s
temps will warm into the mid to upper-50s and lows near 50.
Given those temps, at this point, it is safe to say we will
dodge another 1991 Halloween Blizzard experience.

The next rain maker arrives early next week as a low develops on the
lee side of the Rockies and is progged straight east. The current
track of this low remains to our south however enough moisture looks
to be in place to provide additional widespread rainfall. Although
we are still few days out, 12z ensemble guidance appears to be in
fair agreement that most locations could see QPF of at least 0.5" or
greater by Tuesday morning. As for temps in the extend period, h850
temperatures continue to run at least 3-8 degrees warmer than
seasonal normals which by this time range in low 50s/upper 40s while
lows range in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

AXN, continuing to watch the development of MVFR Cu to the west of
the field. Hi-res guidance does bring these clouds further east
thus have introduced a 3-hr tempo period of BKN MVFR cigs to
account for this. Otherwise, skies for the rest of cloud cover
should remain FEW/SCT at best.

All remaining sites, VFR until mid-level SCT/BKN cigs arrive from
the west around 00z. NW`ly winds will continue to decrease this
afternoon becoming light and variable tonight. Winds shift easterly
tomorrow morning between 4-8kts with cigs increasing to 20kft.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
MON...MVFR/-RA likely, mainly P.M. Wind SE 10-15kts.&&

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...Dunleavy