466
FXUS63 KMPX 191709
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1209 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of drizzle will persist through much of the day today
  with clouds hanging around through the weekend.

- Drier conditions return next week with highs in the mid to
  upper 60s.

- Next chances for rain arrive late in the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Heavy rain has come to an end across the CWA early this morning. An
area of training thunderstorms developed just north of I-90 in
Waseca/Steele/Freeborn counties Friday evening and dumped some
impressive rainfall totals of 5-7". But overall, southern and
western Minnesota received 1-3" with amounts quickly tapering
off to the north through the Twin Cities metro to only around
0.25-0.5" along and north of I-94. Overcast skies and areas of
fog and drizzle are expected for most of the day as a slow
moving surface low in Iowa continues to make its way eastward.
As it does, winds are expected to turn northeasterly by early
this afternoon, which should slowly begin to filter in some
drier air by Sunday. However, extensive cloud cover will persist
making for a fairly gloomy Fall weekend. Temperature wise,
today will be similar to yesterday with maybe a 5 degree change
from overnight lows to daytime highs.

By Monday, Canadian high pressure takes hold of the Great Lakes and
we see our moisture really drop off through mid week. Prime
radiational cooling conditions set up Monday and Tuesday night,
which will allow lows to fall into the 40s and upper 30s for
portions of east central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Some frost
is possible in outlying areas (particularly western Wisconsin),
so this will be something we monitor closely heading into next
week. There`s not much else to be concerned about until the
aforementioned high slides off to the east late Wednesday.
Southerly flow starts to come back ahead of our next potential
system on Thursday. Global deterministic models are in fairly
good agreement with the timing/placement of a trough moving out
of the Dakotas late in the week. However, given the very dry
airmass that we are expecting ahead of this feature, the
majority of the precip may end up being confined to our west.
NBM PoPs are likely too low for Wednesday night/Thursday, but at
this point there`s still going to be a lot of variability.
Highs creep back up into the low 70s by the end of the period
with ensembles starting to hint at our next precip chance late
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Areas of drizzle will continue to persist across western WI this
afternoon, such that visibilities could be reduced to 2sm.
Otherwise, generally IFR is expected into this evening as cigs
remain below 1000 feet. However, a boundary will sag south into
central MN this evening into tonight, which will scour out some
moisture. This will lead to an improvement of conditions to
MVFR/low-end VFR, mainly across central MN and tonight into
early Sunday morning as clouds rise and decrease in coverage.
Farther south, IFR will persist through most of the night before
slowly improving to MVFR. A broken stratocumulus field is
expected to develop after 13z Sunday which will return all
terminals to MVFR through the end of the period. Northeasterly
winds will remain near 10 knots through this afternoon, then
slow to near 5 knots this evening while becoming north-
northeasterly. Winds turn back to northeasterly near 10 knots
during Sunday morning.

KMSP...Brief periods of IFR are possible through 22z but
otherwise low-end MVFR will persist until early Sunday morning.
Expecting sagging boundary to the north to scour out some
moisture and slightly lift/decrease cloud cover early Sunday
morning. However, should still remain MVFR through 19z before
cigs lift to VFR. Northeasterly wind gusts will approach 20
knots during Sunday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind E 5-10G15 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...CTG