462
FXUS63 KMPX 130807
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
207 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today and Friday, dry and mild with highs in the mid to upper
  50s Thursday and mid to upper 60s Friday.

- Saturday, a cold front will pass through dry, with more
  seasonable temperatures arrive the second half of the weekend
  into early next week.

- Late Monday and Tuesday, small chances for rain or snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Today through Friday...It was another mostly clear night across
the region, and some locations were treated to another northern
lights show. Temperatures had dropped into the 20s where skies
were clear, but remained warmer where there was some cloud
cover.

Warmer temperatures will be the main item of interest over the
next couple of days. The raob from 00Z Thursday measured 1C at
850mb, and after a prolonged period of warm air advection the
next couple of days, we expect the 00Z Saturday observation to
be above 15C as a thermal ridge moves overhead. What that all
means is temperatures today will be warmer than yesterday, and
the same holds true on Friday. Highs today will generally be in
the mid to upper 60s, and on Friday most locations will have
highs in the 60s with perhaps a 70 across southwest Minnesota.
Did increase temperatures closer to the higher end of guidance,
and also lowered humidity toward the lower end of guidance.

Saturday through Wednesday...Early Saturday a cold front will
move through the region. This front is lacking both moisture and
forcing for ascent, so most locations should stay dry as it
passes through. Otherwise expect an increase in mid level
clouds, with winds becoming northwest as cooler air moves across
the region. This cooler air will bring highs back into the 40s
next week, with overnight lows in the upper 20s, which is near
to slightly above normal for mid-November.

Although the cold front will pass through dry on Saturday, the
upper level jet will transition from northwest flow this
weekend, to more southwesterly as the ridge across the Rockies
becomes replaced by a west-coast trough. As this happens, a
cut-off low over California will lift northeast toward the
Midwest, and lead to an area of precipitation. Where this
exactly ends up is still uncertain. The most likely scenario is
for it to track along the I-80 corridor, but there is a lower
probability scenario that it bring rain or snow to Minnesota and
Wisconsin. For now, continued with 25 to 35 percent chances for
precipitation, with the expectation that anything that falls
will be inconsequential on our monthly precipitation deficit.
However, as the previous discussion mentioned, the west coast
trough could establish itself toward the end of the month, which
means increased chances for larger scale synoptic systems to
track across the central US.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Westerly winds have generally become light and variable. Winds
will turn south/southeasterly tomorrow morning and are forecast
to sustain between 5-10kts through the afternoon. VFR mid to
upper-level clouds will continue to gradually drift east from
SD. Could have a brief BKN cig around ~10k feet from roughly
daybreak through midday. No other aviation concerns.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind S 10-15G20 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts bcmg NW 15-20G30 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...Strus