263
FXUS63 KMPX 281136
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
636 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry conditions expected through Labor Day, with chances
  for precipitation mostly across western MN.

- Best chance for organized precipitation comes with a cold
  front Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Mild but still below-normal temperatures will persist through
  Tuesday, then noticeably cooler behind the cold front for the
  latter half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Moisture pooling with stable conditions and light winds ahead
of a cold front over northern MN/WI is helping promote the
development of fog and low stratus this morning. Where rain
developed over southern MN yesterday into the early morning
hours today, fog is dense and fairly widespread so a Dense Fog
Advisory will continue beyond daybreak this morning. Elsewhere,
dense fog is more spotty, especially over eastern MN where
deeper cloud cover is present while showers drifting southward
ahead of the front continue to diminish.

The cold front will slowly drop southward during the day today,
resulting in no more than an small increase in cloud cover but
no precipitation is expected during the day today. The front
will stall out over the mid-Mississippi River Valley tonight
into Friday night, but its western edge will curl back northward
into the eastern Dakotas and far western MN. It is over these
areas where precipitation chances will mostly be confined
through the Labor Day weekend. If anything, eastern MN
(including the TC metro) could see isolated showers during the
day Friday when a weak mid-level disturbance drifts atop the
region and near the vicinity of the stalled front. But, as
mentioned, much of the WFO MPX coverage will remain dry with the
main chances through the weekend over western MN, and only in
the Slight Chance range at best.

The best chance for fairly widespread precipitation comes next
week Tuesday night into Wednesday when a more developed cold
front drops southeast through the region with a higher moisture
content in advance and near it, along with troughing aloft. Too
early to determine if there will be any organized convection
with this cold front, but fair to say that showers/thunderstorms
can be expected for nearly the entire coverage area. Have kept
PoPs in the Chance range at this point, aligning with NBM, but
will see if chances do in fact increase as we approach that
period.

As for temperatures, very little day-to-day difference is
expected through Tuesday, coinciding with no appreciable
change in airmass. Highs through the start of September will
mainly run in the mid- upper 70s which is near to slightly below
normal for this time of year. Behind the aforementioned
organized cold front expected for the middle of next week, a
noticeably cooler airmass is expected which will bump highs back
down to the 60s while lows drop from the 50s to around 60 ahead
of the front to the 40s behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Low stratus and fog will prevail through daybreak per satellite
imagery and HRRR guidance. Have maintained the IFR-or-worse
conditions at all sites except MSP, which likely will remain
well enough mixed to avoid the fog. Have kept the TAFs dry at
this point, with the only notable chance being around 12z Friday
morning and onward for a few isolated showers across the area.

KMSP...Fog is to the west/south/east of MSP and looks to remain
just far enough away from the terminal to not have a flight
condition reduction. If anything, MVFR visibilities are possible
in the first couple hours of this cycle. Otherwise, VFR
conditions look to prevail at MSP. Could have some showers after
12z Friday morning as chances nudge up to around 20 percent.
Have kept the TAF dry at this point but will monitor model runs
as they come in and adjust the potential as needed.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT-SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
MON-TUE...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Blue Earth-
     Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Douglas-Goodhue-Kandiyohi-
     Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-
     Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-
     Swift-Todd-Waseca-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Chippewa-
     Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Rusk.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...JPC