050
FXUS63 KMPX 030256
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
856 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder than normal temperatures to continue through and beyond
  the first week of December, with the first widespread sub-
  zero morning of the season coming Thursday.

- A few chances for light snow/flurries this week, particularly
  tonight with one weak wave and then Friday through Saturday
  with a pair of weak clipper systems.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Light snow has spread into the metro this evening. Latest radar
trends support several hours of light snow before tapering off
late tonight. The precipitation has formed ahead of an
approaching cold front in an area of low level warm advection.
Surface temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 20s across
the metro with low 30s across portions of S/SW MN. I have
effectively doubled our snow forecast with a recent grid update. New
snow amounts around a half inch or so are likely, which is
enough to cause some travel impacts given the sfc temperatures.
Frontal passage will still occur overnight tonight with temperatures
falling into the teens by daybreak Wednesday morning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Taking a look at satellite over southern Minnesota and western
Wisconsin this afternoon, a lower stratus deck is clearing the
area into central Wisconsin. These clouds were saturated in the
dendritic growth zone, meaning flurries were falling pretty much
anywhere there was this lower cloud cover. A dusting was
reported at a few locations, but nothing significant in terms of
accumulation resulted from those flurries. The sun has since
peeked out along the MN/WI border. Mid to high level clouds
are moving in, meaning the clear skies will be brief, with MSP
already reporting scattered clouds at 15,000ft. Temperatures are
holding in the upper teens to low 20s, with slightly warmer
temps in the areas with the aforementioned stratus hanging on.

The better chance for a trace to few tenths of snow
accumulation will arrive later tonight as a surface low swings
in from the Dakotas. The associated fronts and modest swath of
moisture will likely be enough to produce scattered snow
showers this evening into the early morning hours tomorrow.
Little snow accumulation is expected with this system, but
scattered trace to few tenths of snowfall are possible when you
wake up tomorrow morning. Looking ahead, this pattern of light
snow events looks to continue through the period. The AIFS
depicts several chances for low-end, but measurable, snow
events through the forecast period. This is in line with the
upper-level pattern that other models are forecasting. The most
impactful shortwave appears to be this weekend, with agreement
in the presence of precip, but disagreement in exact placement.

The temperatures can be forecast with more certainty as an
appreciable surge of cold air will scoop south. Even with
clearing skies due to high pressure moving in Wednesday into
Thursday, 850mb temps drop as low as 15C to 20C below zero.
This will translate to highs on Wednesday in the single digits
to the teens followed by possibly record-low minimum
temperatures early Thursday morning (between 10 to 15 degrees F
below zero). The Twin Cities Metro area will be spared from the
coldest temps, bottoming out around 8 below zero due to the
Urban Heat Island. Beyond Thursday morning, there is no sign of
any appreciable warm up. Overnight lows in the single digits and
afternoon highs in the teens to low 20s through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 537 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

A broad area of light snow upstream over eastern Dakotas &
western Minnesota this evening. Snow chances are tied to a
surface cold front that will move through tonight and usher in
colder/drier air by daybreak Wednesday. A 4 to 6 hour period of
light snow appears likely with cigs & vsby dipping to MVFR. MVFR
cigs remain through daybreak before scattering out by mid-
morning Wednesday. Winds turn to the SW then NW after the
frontal passage tonight. Northwest winds with gusts up to 20
kts on Wednesday. Current forecast guidance supports a several
hour window of light snow. Snowfall amounts will remain light,
generally a quarter to a half inch, but could lead to some
impacts.

Interestingly enough UP has been reported across W/SW
MN & we`ve had reports of graupel & snow pellets. We`ll keep an
eye on p-types but -SN should be dominant P-type. Freezing
drizzle potential remains low, but non-zero. Current thought is that
any FZDZ remains tied to the sfc boundary & should remain brief
in nature. Wednesday afternoon & evening should remain VFR &
dry. Wind gusts will fall off late afternoon and remain
northwesterly.

KMSP... Cigs lower with light snow arriving later this evening.
High confidence of light snow tonight. Our latest forecast
supports the potential for a 0.25-0.5" coating of snow
accumulation tonight. Freezing drizzle potential remains low,
but non- zero. and likely to our southwest.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW 5-15kts.
SAT...VFR, chc MVFR -SN. Wind N 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NE to SE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BPH
DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...BPH