309
FXUS63 KMPX 181820
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1220 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry and mild period expected with temperatures 5-10
  degrees above normal through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1216 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

As the last of the rain/snow mix exits east, we shift back to a
relatively quiet stretch of weather under mostly zonal flow
aloft. A shortwave will pass to our north Wednesday into
Thursday, bringing a slight chance for rain to portions of
central MN and northwest WI along a cold front. Forecast
soundings suggest that dry air above 700mb may limit cloud ice
formation, which would result in a lower ceiling for any rain in
an environment where QPF is only in the hundredths at best.

Ensemble guidance is fairly uniform, suggesting persistent
highs and lows roughly 5-10 degrees above normal all the way
through at least the weekend. A couple strong cyclones form off
the Rockies, but they should stay closer to the Gulf than to us
with cutoff flow stretching as far south as Mexico.

The first real sign of a big shakeup to the pattern does not
come until around Thanksgiving Day. Ensemble mean temperatures
drop about 5-10 degrees below normal, with the potential for
northwest flow to develop aloft. This will be the period to
watch, but for now it should be a quiet late fall week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1114 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Have run with all TAFs dry as the last little swath of -SN near
EAU is quickly shrinking and will no longer be an issue come
initialization time of the 18/18z TAF set. The tricky part will
be how far south the clearing line evident on visible satellite
imagery sags south. RWF-MKT-EAU look to have stratus clouds
linger into the evening hours while the remaining TAF sites will
at least partially clear out. Another surge of low level
moisture late tonight through late Wednesday morning will result
in MVFR ceilings returning, potentially down to IFR for most MN
TAF sites. ENE winds under 10kts will go light/variable this
evening through late Wednesday morning, picking up lightly from
the south.

KMSP...VFR conditions expected at the start, lasting into the
early morning hours with partial clearing mainly from late this
afternoon onward. Another round of lower stratus returns
overnight, a few hours prior to sunrise and ceiling will
continue to drop through late Wednesday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR. Wind SW bcmg NW 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW bcmg SW 5 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC