508
FXUS63 KMPX 021758
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1158 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder than normal temperatures to continue through and beyond
  the first week of December, with the first widespread sub-
  zero morning of the season coming Thursday.

- A few chances for light snow/flurries this week, particularly
  tonight with one weak wave and then Friday through Saturday
  with a pair of weak clipper systems

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Surface analysis early this morning shows relatively north-
south oriented high pressure over the central CONUS, including
an inverted trough extending northward into MN, along with a low
pressure center over southern Saskatchewan province. Aloft, a
longwave trough is just east of MN/WI, extending SSW from Hudson
Bay to the Mississippi River Delta while prolonged northwest
flow stretches all the way to the Gulf of Alaska. This trough is
evident on IR/GeoColor satellite imagery with much of western
MN in clear skies while far eastern MN through much of WI still
has low stratus in place. This is creating quite the temperature
difference in that western MN already has temperatures in the
single digits while those sites under the stratus hold in the
teens.

Even with partial clearing later today, cold temperatures will
remain in place due to the long pathway for arctic air to drop
into the region. Highs will remain in the 20s area-wide. The
first of several weak clipper-type waves will drop southeast
through the region tonight. The aforementioned low over western
Canada will slide into northern MN this afternoon then drive ESE
into northern WI this evening. Its associated fronts and modest
swath of moisture may be just enough to produce scattered snow
showers this evening into the early morning hours Wednesday.
Little to no snow accumulation is expected with this system.

Behind it, an appreciable surge of frigid air is expected to
plunge into the Upper Midwest. Even with clearing skies for
Wednesday- Thursday with high pressure moving in, H85 temps late
Wed into early Thu drop to as low as -15C to -20C. This will
then translate to highs on Wed in the single digits to the teens
followed by possibly record-low minimum temperatures early
Thursday morning down into the negative middle teens.

Some temperatures recovery will take place Thursday through
Friday as another clipper system approaches from the northwest
Friday, placing the Upper Midwest in a relative "warm" sector.
That said, chances increase a bit for additional scattered snow
showers Friday as that low drifts across Northern MN, only to be
followed by another low from the Dakotas into the Mid-
Mississippi River Valley on Saturday. This second low has taken
a weaker look among the models from this time yesterday, but
still warrants "Chance" PoP mention for light snow over mainly
the southern half of the WFO MPX coverage area. Same as the
system for today, little if any accumulation is expected from
these weak systems Friday-Saturday.

Highs to drop back into the teens Saturday-Sunday with the
passage of these weak waves, then slowly recover back to the
20s for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Late morning satellite image depicts low stratus lifting to the
northeast across far eastern MN/western WI. The snow-growth
layer is collocated within the MVFR/IFR stratus, so periods of
MVFR flurries are possible this afternoon at RNH and EAU. VFR
mid-to-high clouds are increasing over western MN and will
continue to spread east through this afternoon.

A cold front will move through from northwest to southeast
tonight and may produce a period of MVFR -SHSN at each terminal,
however, there is low confidence in how far west precipitation
will activate along the front. Converted PROB30s to TEMPOs where
confidence in MVFR -SHSN was the highest. Low MVFR/high IFR
cigs likely accompany the snow showers. A quarter inch or snow
of snow accumulation will be possible at all terminals. MVFR
stratus and breezy northwest winds will linger into tomorrow
following the frontal passage. It`s possible that future TAFs
will need to make a more aggressive mention of flurries/vis
reductions tomorrow morning, as forecast soundings have trended
in the direction of prolonged saturation in the snow-growth
layer.

KMSP...Low stratus is quickly existing to the northeast late
this morning, though we have opted to include a one hour TEMPO
for MVFR vis/cigs to open the 18z window. Flight conditions will
continue to improve this afternoon, with light winds out of the
south. The passage of a cold front will bring a quick hitting
round of light snow tonight, as represented by the TEMPO from
03-07z. Winds turn northwesterly following the front and will
gust upwards of 20 knots through tomorrow morning. Low confidence
in how long flurries linger following the FROPA and may need to
extend -SHSN mention in forthcoming TAFs. Latest forecast
supports the potential for a 0.2-0.3" coating of snow
accumulation tonight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW 5-15kts.
SAT...VFR, chc MVFR -SN. Wind N 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NE to SE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...Strus