625
FXUS63 KMPX 100913
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
313 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry week ahead, with only a slim chances for flurries
  overnight tonight in Wisconsin.

- Today will be the last day with highs in the 30s for at least
  a week, with seasonable highs through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Cloud cover eroded away for most earlier this evening, bringing
any lingering flurries to an end. Broken to overcast low-level
clouds remain across far western and central Minnesota, allowing
Morrison and Todd counties to remain four or five degrees
warmer than surrounding locations. Elsewhere, temperatures have
dropped into the low 20s and upper teens with mostly clear
skies. Scattered cloud cover will move back in later today ahead
of a mild airmass advecting toward the region from the western
CONUS. A few forecast soundings depict the potential for more of
the cosmetic flurries in western Wisconsin overnight tonight.
Shallow DGZ saturation would need to overcome a dry layer at the
surface, even if this happened, nothing more than a few flakes
are likely around midnight. However, have opted to add flurries
to the weather grids to reflect this chance.

As the system that brought us this burst of cold air exits
towards the Great Lakes, ridging will build and bring our
temperatures back to near normal by Tuesday. This will also
contribute to a benign weather pattern through the workweek with
high pressure overhead. Dry conditions are expected everywhere
(with the exception of the aforementioned potential flurries)
through Friday. Scattered clouds are expected through the week,
but it won`t be a period where the sun won`t shine. Wednesday
looks to have the most sun, followed by early Friday.

Northwest surface winds will dominate through early Thursday
before becoming south- southeasterly, and ushering some milder
air. On Thursday, the southern half of Minnesota and western
Wisconsin should see highs in the 50s, about 5 degrees above
normal for mid- November. Friday and Saturday will be even
warmer, with a shot at 60 for those in and south of the Twin
Cities.

Next weekend continues to be the target of opportunity for any
active weather. An upper level trough will dig across the
country, but vast uncertainty in the strength and track of the
associated surface low warrant low confidence in what will
actually happen in our neck of the woods. Given forecast warmer
than normal temperatures, if this system does impact us, it will
likely remain rain.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1052 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

The last of the -SN will be gone before the start of the period
with cloud cover eroding over the area as well. A few lingering
SCT clouds are possible, however we may see brief periods of
FEW100 to SKC through around 12z, at which point cloud cover
returns. FEW050 is possible from roughly 15-22z with some fair
weather cumulus, lifting towards 150 by 00z and becoming
BKN/OVC100-150 level CIGS by 02-03z. Winds will continue to
shift towards 240-270 and weaken below 10kts for the first 6
hours of the period, weakening further below 5kts by the final
6 hours.

KMSP...Despite recent METARS still showing -SN, elected to keep
it out of the start of the TAF period as radar echoes look to
move south of the terminal with cloud cover generally eroding
for the start of the period. Otherwise no major changes from the
00z with some lower mid level cumulus during the day tomorrow
and VFR mid level CIGS returning late in the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SW to SE 5kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...TDH