017
FXUS63 KMPX 202046
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
246 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clouds will clear from west to east this evening and
  overnight, allowing lows to fall into the 20s.

- Quiet and seasonably warm weather is expected through the weekend.

- Next chance of precip arrives to start the week, with colder
  temperatures to follow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

We`re finally starting to see a few breaks in the clouds across
western and southern Minnesota following this morning`s frontal
passage. As clouds continue to clear this evening and into the
overnight, lows will drop into the 20s, making Friday morning
some 15-20 degrees colder than this morning. But aside from some
seasonably chilly mornings, the next three days look to be
pretty great by late November standards. Have bumped up highs
for Saturday a few degrees into the low to mid 50s to account
for the possibility of some decent mixing as advertised in
forecast soundings. Record highs will be out of reach, but still
a nice weekend to finish up any last minute outdoor projects.

We`ll start the week with temperatures in the upper 40s, but that
all will come crashing down following a system that moves in late
Monday. Models have continued to increase the likelihood that a
trough in the Central Plains will interact with a stronger wave
dropping down out of Canada. This would lead to better precip
chances here and our warmer temperatures could lead to some p-type
concerns. While the majority of this precip will fall as rain Monday
afternoon into Tuesday, there is a chance we see a transition to
snow on the backside of the low as it moves up into the Great Lakes
Tuesday into Wednesday. Of course, it`s much too early to say how
much, if any, of this ends up falling as snow, but it`s certainly
something to keep an eye on coming into the Thanksgiving holiday.

What is more certain is that temperatures will fall into the 20s and
30s for highs from Wednesday through the end of the month. Ensemble
members continue to highlight a sharp drop in temperatures that will
likely stick around into the first week of December. There is also a
signal that things could be more active precip-wise during this
time, so we will continue to monitor that as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1151 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Widespread IFR ceilings were beginning to improve to MVFR from
west to east this morning, and that trend will continue this
afternoon. Did hold onto the MVFR ceilings a couple hours longer
into the evening, but then expect clearing skies as dry air
moves in. Winds will be northwest throughout.

KMSP...MVFR conditions expected for most of the afternoon and
into the evening from low stratus. Winds will be northwest
throughout.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW to SW 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible. Wind S 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...JRB