208
FXUS63 KMPX 061938
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
238 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- First freeze of the Fall season possible across portions of
  central MN/western WI Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

- Frost likely Wednesday morning.

- Temperatures rebound into the 70s later this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

What a difference 24 hours can make! Early afternoon temperatures in
the upper 50s are running 15 to 20 degrees cooler than this time
yesterday. Sunday`s cold front has continued to advance southeast,
with the latest position from roughly Milwaukee, WI to the Quad
Cities. Satellite and regional radar display a band of anafrontal
precipitation/cloud cover across Iowa/central WI. The majority
of the anafrontal precipitation will remain to the southeast of
our forecast area, however we`ve maintained slight chance PoPs
across southeastern MN where isolated sprinkles are possible.
Otherwise, the main focus in the short term is the stratus over
south central MN and it`s impact on the temperature forecast.
Opted the lower highs a few degrees, however the general idea of
afternoon highs around 60 degrees or so remains on track.

Looking to the north, water-vapor imagery illustrates an upper-low
spinning over Manitoba. The eastward progression of the upper-
low will send a cold front to the southeast across the region
overnight. Visible satellite over southern Canada reveals cloud
cover associated with the front. It`s this area of clouds that
is presenting a challenge for the low temperature forecast
through tomorrow morning. Opted to lean on the lower side of
guidance, which produced a forecast with lows in the upper 30s
north of I-94 and the lower 40s to the south. We may see patchy
frost develop across central MN/western WI, however the cloud
cover scenario and marginal temperature forecast are limiting
factors. For this reason, opted to hold off on a frost headline.

The upper-low will continue to move east of the Great Lakes heading
into tomorrow night. Expansive high pressure will promote light
winds and clear skies, which will set the stage for the coldest
morning of the work week. Latest NBM is looking better, however
still felt it was too warm so went ahead and lowered temperatures
towards NBM25 across central MN/western WI. As a result, sub-
freezing temperatures are looking very possible across our
northern tier of counties against WFO DLH. We`ve issued a Freeze
Watch for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning for our northern
counties extending from Todd (MN) to Rusk (WI). While only the
narrow strip is included in the Freeze Watch, it`s looking
likely that a more expansive frost headline will eventually be
needed across our forecast area. Lows in the upper 20s/lower 30s
are forecast north of I-94. Morning lows in the mid to upper
30s can be expected elsewhere (Including the TC Metro).

The remainder of the work week will feature a warming trend in
response to the reestablishment of ridging over the northern CONUS.
Wednesday/Thursday high temperatures in the upper 60s are forecast
to climb into the 70s Friday-Sunday. While above normal, this
next warm-up will not be nearly as intense as this past weekend
was. Much of this period will be dry, though there are a few
periods when showers and storms are possible. The first window
for precipitation will be tied to the interaction of a weak mid-
level shortwave across the baroclinic zone that is forecast to
setup across the Upper Midwest Thursday afternoon. The best
chance for a shower or storm will be for communities located in
far eastern MN/western WI, though most areas aim to stay dry.
The next window for potential precipitation arrives later this
weekend into early next week as a more pronounced longwave
trough moves across the western CONUS. The newest NBM has 30-40
PoPs from late Saturday into Monday, which represents the wide
range of precipitation timing across the global guidance. Long
term guidance suggests that the upper-level pattern will remain
active, with perhaps more precipitation chances and mild air
heading into the middle of the month. This is supported by CPC`s
8-14 day outlooks, which feature above normal temperatures and
precipitation across the Upper Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Mid-level SCT to
BKN clouds will remain with us through the evening hours before
clearing out. I have removed the PROB30 at EAU given the trends
in the HRRR to keep any SHRA to the S/E of EAU. Winds will
continue to be light and generally from the north/northwest
before turning westerly overnight. Winds will increase and turn
back to the northwest behind a weak cold front on Tuesday.


KMSP... No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind S 5-15 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind S 10-15G25kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind S BCMG NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
     for Benton-Chisago-Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-
     Todd.
WI...Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
     for Barron-Polk-Rusk.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...BPH