988
FXUS63 KMPX 111900
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
100 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry week ahead, next rain chances arrive this weekend.

- Mild temperatures for the remainder of the week. Highs in the
  upper 40s to 50s through Thursday and upper 50s to 60s Friday
  and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

The remainder of this week looks largely dry while temperatures
gradually warm. The only forecast concern (albeit minor) in the
short-term is breezier winds this afternoon and Wednesday. The
strongest winds today have been across western MN where gusts are
near 30 MPH. Sunny skies and efficient mixing have also allowed this
region`s highs to rise into the low to mid 50s. Winds will weaken
slightly tonight as temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower
30s. For Wednesday, winds increase again area-wide with gusts to 20-
25 MPH expected during the afternoon. Area temperatures will also
become more uniform with highs in the upper 40s to even possible mid
50s in southwestern MN. Winds should really slow down Wednesday
evening as the surface pressure gradient relaxes. The airmass stays
stagnant through Thursday until surface high pressure slides east
into the Great Lakes. This will invoke southerly flow across the
Northern Plains, causing WAA and a strong thermal ridge to
eventually move over the Upper Midwest by the end of the week. The
southern half of the CWA will have a good chance of at least
reaching 60s for highs of at least one of Friday or Saturday
(possibly both). The EPS is a little bit faster with the thermal
ridge leading to Friday being the warmest day before a cold front
eventually moves through. The GEFS and Canadian ensembles are a bit
slower leading to both Friday and Saturday being warmer. This will
very likely be the warmest period we`ll see until next Spring.

A cold front and trough should move through the Upper Midwest later
Saturday acting to cool us closer to normal for the start of next
week. Some deterministic models and ensemble members do show light
QPF with over eastern MN/western WI with the cold front. But,
forecast soundings look pretty dry giving low confidence in actual
precipitation. NBM PoPs only rise to 20% Saturday afternoon/evening
for our far eastern counties and additional reductions could be
possible. Forecast confidence for precipitation really begins to
decline next week as models try to develop a messy split-flow upper-
level pattern. A wide variety of solutions evolve within the models
as each has their own take on weak systems moving through the
central CONUS sometime early next week. But, it seems that any
potential for a significant storm system is not on the horizon until
after at least mid-next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1127 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Once a front moving into western WI clears the area, we`ll have
24-30 hours of very little change in weather conditions. Only
hiccup is a batch of stratus coming down from northeast MN, the
southern end of which may clip RNH/EAU this afternoon.

KMSP...Maybe we see a bit of a strato-cu field this afternoon,
but otherwise, this is a pretty uneventful period with fairly
stable weather conditions.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind light/variable.
FRI...VFR. Wind SSE 10-15 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW bcmg NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...MPG