547
FXUS63 KMPX 041749
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1149 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread sub-zero temperatures early this morning. Wind
  chills as cold -20 to -25 across western MN.

- A clipper will bring the next chance of light snow Friday
  morning. Minor accumulations possible.

- Another system will slide through the region Saturday and
  looks to bring a better chance of accumulating snow (greatest
  potential across southern MN).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

These cold temperatures sure could make one say, "Ope" on
morning like this. Surface obs reporting sub-zero temperatures
areas wide with wind chills ranging from -15 to -25 below zero.
However good news is is we start to warm up this morning all
the way through Friday.

A clipper which is embedded within parent northwesterly flow
will continue to track just off to the north and east of
Minnesota`s arrowhead region today which will increase southerly
return flow later this afternoon into the evening providing
20-25 mph surface wind gusts. Given the low`s current track,
much of the warm advective precip field should remain confined
to Minnesota`s arrowhead region. However as we enter tonight, a
trailing cold front moves in from the Dakotas which increases
the threat of snowfall chances for the pre-dawn hours Friday
morning. Light snow is expected to move from west to east across
much of southern Minnesota (including the Twin Cities metro)
into western Wisconsin by Friday afternoon. Latest run of the
NBM continues to advertise low-end QPF amounts from this system.
Therefore, continued with the previous shift`s approach by
using WPC`s blend to help nudge up QPF slightly to a few
hundredths of an inch. By doing so, this results in another
fresh half-inch of snow for most locations come Friday morning.
Similar to Wednesday morning`s snowfall, the morning commute
could be potentially a slippery. PoPs were also increased above
60-70% values which align better with current forecast thinking.


But wait there is more! Saturday morning the aforementioned
parent northwest flow ejects yet another shortwave into the
northern plains. This time, the wave is progged though the
Dakotas into Iowa which will allow for much of the southern half
of Minnesota to receive additional snowfall. The results from
guidance continue to favor the north/south "camp" results as
mentioned in the previous discussion. As of now, the latest
snowfall accumulation map advertises the potential of 2-3 inches
across south-central MN into northern Iowa. One thing to
monitor though is if northern results within guidance come to
reality, snowfall totals could be increase to a few inches or
perhaps more south of the I-94 corridor.

After this low pressure vacates, Canadian high pressure follows
in tow funneling in colder air. Forecast temperatures will
return to the double to single digits below zero for lows on
Sunday and Monday morning. By early next week, if you missed the
previous two opportunities to see snow, you`ll get another
chance here. The pattern aloft remains active and will eject
another system to impact Minnesota and Wisconsin. Through warm
advection and prior to precip arrival, temperatures are expected
to return to the upper 20 to low 30s. Given the warmer sfc
environment and potentially warm air aloft, this could bring
concerns for mixed/freezing p-types. Still lots can change
between now and then but something to keep in mind as we proceed
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Clouds are beginning their approach ahead of our Clipper system.
KAXN has already gone MVFR and KRWF should follow shortly. MVFR
cigs will continue to spread east through this afternoon for our
Minnesota terminals with south-southwesterly winds 10-15kts with
occasional gusts up to 25kts. Winds decrease overnight to 10kts
or less.

Biggest change for this TAF set is that confidence has
increased in some snow by tomorrow morning for most sites.
Confidence is lower for KRWF and KMKT as the overall track for
the Clipper basically sends it right down I-94. Timing has been
a bit slower with the 12z models, so will need to monitor this
for the next cycle to see if snow onset timing needs to be
adjusted further. Expecting a solid chunk of the morning to be
IFR with the potential for some TEMPO LIFR. Snow ends from west
to east with winds turning to the northwest on the backside.

KMSP...MVFR cigs are expected by this evening and will continue
to fall overnight. Snow should hold off until after 12z,
decided to go with a 14z start time. Guidance is still a little
all over the board with start/end times, so went more
pessimistic with the snow not ending until 21z tomorrow. This
will be refined in the coming updates.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR/-SN, chc IFR. Wind N 5-10kts.
SUN...MVFR/-SN early, bcmg VFR. Wind N 5-10kts.
MON...VFR, chc MVFR w/-SN. Wind S 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...Dye