313
FXUS63 KMQT 160701
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
301 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be near-seasonal with highs in the 60s to low
70s and lows in the 40s to low 50s.

- Scattered rain showers tonight, not expected to be widespread or
impactful.

- Next chances of rain arrive Friday and Saturday mainly for the
south half of the UP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

GOES-East Nighttime Microphysics RGB imagery around midnight
Eastern shows clear skies across much of the UP except for some
high clouds along the Lake Michigan shores associated with
moisture transport around a Southeast US ridge with disturbed
weather about the periphery of this ridge remaining well to the
south of the UP. Elsewhere around North America, 500mb charts
show the persistent Hudson Bay trough but otherwise mostly zonal
flow across the CONUS and Southern Canada with the exception of
a pronounced trough over the Pacific Northwest. For the rest of
the overnight period, some patches of fog cannot be ruled out,
but HREF probabilities of visibility falling below 1 mile are
only 10-33%. While the setup supports effective radiational
cooling, widespread dew points in the 40s and low 50s will keep
low temperatures in the 40s for most this morning, though a few
typical dry/cold spots in the interior west may see temperatures
falling into the upper 30s with chances of frost on elevated
surfaces at around 10-20%.

As surface high pressure moves directly over the region today,
expect light winds with Great Lakes lake breezes in the afternoon
and highs in the 60s to low 70s. Meanwhile, a shortwave will move
from northern Saskatchewan to far northwestern Ontario throughout
today and tonight. This will bring with it a weak surface boundary
and chances of scattered rain showers beginning a bit before sunset
in the west and spreading east overnight. Rain will not be
widespread - HREF probabilities of measurable rainfall tonight are
as high as 50-75% along the MI/WI state line and north of Houghton,
but between Houghton and the US-41/M-28 corridor, chances are around
15%. Accumulations are not expected to be particularly impactful
either, as the 75th percentile of precip totals only exceed 0.1
inches for IMT/ESC and south. The precipitation will contribute to
added low-level moisture overnight, which will bring back ~20%
chances of fog overnight into Thursday morning.

Ridging in the wake of that shortwave will bring a return of dry
weather for the remainder of Thursday into Friday morning with light
winds mainly out of the north. Expect highs around the 70s degree
mark with lows into Friday morning settling into the 40s away from
the Great Lakes. The next chances at rain arrive Friday and Saturday
with another shortwave, though the current NBM keeps PoPs above 35%
confined to the southern half of the UP and each of the last 3 runs
has trended slightly south with the track of precipitation. Current
LREF chances of half an inch of rainfall over a 24 hour period are
only in excess of 50% for the southern half of Menominee County this
weekend, with chances of similar rainfall as far north as the US-2
corridor around 30%. Model spread and forecast uncertainty
grows significantly beyond the weekend as ensembles struggle to
agree on how the Pacific Northwest trough progresses through the
northern CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. High pressure
will build into the Upper Great Lakes through the afternoon bringing
mainly clear skies and light winds, less than 10kt. Diurnally
driven, scattered, fair weather cumulus are expected at SAW this
afternoon. Expect cloud cover to increase late in the TAF period
with ceilings at or above 10 kft.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Under primarily high pressure and only weak disturbances, wind gusts
will be sub-20 kt through Thursday evening. Ahead of a stronger
disturbance passing south of the region Friday into the weekend,
northerly to northeasterly wind gusts in excess of 20 kt briefly
become possible (~50% chance) Thursday night into Friday over
eastern Lake Superior. During the day Friday through Saturday
afternoon, wind gusts to 20-25 kt are expected over far western Lake
Superior as easterly and northeasterly winds funnel between the MN
Arrowhead and the Bayfield Peninsula. Uncertainty then grows for the
late weekend and beyond, though Euro ensemble probabilities of gales
are less than 15% throughout the period.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...NL
MARINE...GS