277
FXUS63 KMQT 071709
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1209 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow for the northwest wind snowbelts is expected
  today, bringing amounts less than an inch to the western UP
  and 1-3 inches to the east. Locally higher 3-5" possible under
  stronger bands in Luce/Chippewa counties.

- A pair of clipper systems are set to bring accumulating snow
  late Monday night through Wednesday. Stay tuned for additional
  details regarding snowfall amounts.

- Cooler than normal temperatures continue through the next week
  and beyond. Low temperatures in the single digits to near zero
  are expected tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Early morning satellite imagery and RAP mesoanalysis reveals broad
troughing extending south from the Hudson Bay down into the central
Plains states. An embedded shortwave is working across the Midwest
this morning, producing an area of frontogenetically forced snow
from Illinois into central Lower Michigan. Closer to home, system
snow has kept south of the UP save for some light snow briefly
reported at Menominee. Elsewhere, westerly lake effect snow is
beginning to descend southeast this morning as the shortwave pulls
east and the incoming ridge veers LES to the more traditional NW
wind snowbelts. Despite the brief uptick in LES, not much is
expected today given the incoming dry high pressure working to eat
lake induced eqs to less than 5kft. Only an inch or less of snow is
likely to be seen across the western UP through tonight. In the
east, specifically Alger county eastward through N Schoolcraft and N
Luce counties, CAM guidance supports slightly higher snowfall
amounts given the longer fetch across Lake Superior and possible
convergence banding in connection with Lake Nipigon. There, 1-3" is
possible with locally higher amounts to 4-5" should a stronger band
find itself in one location this afternoon. Otherwise, look for
daytime highs in the teens and low 20s. Tonight, as the
aforementioned sfc high pressure builds into the Great Lakes, light
west to southwest winds, clearing skies, and efficient radiational
cooling may allow the interior to fall to near zero or a few degrees
below while the lakeshores remain in the single digits. This may be
contingent on lake effect cloud cover lingering overhead.

Monday stays fairly quiet as sfc high pressure makes its exit to the
eastern seaboard, however, the quiet period will be short lived as
active and potentially impactful winter weather returns to Upper
Michigan in the form of two clipper shortwaves. The first presses
into western Lake Superior Monday night, inducing a SW fetch off of
Lake Michigan supportive of a decent LES band given northern Lake
Michigan water temp averaging ~6C, 850mb temps in the negative
teens, and lake induced eqs 5-7 kft. This band sets up Monday night
into Tuesday morning and may produce snowfall rates up to a half an
inch per hour, which combined with SW winds off the lake reaching 25-
35 mph may make travel along US-2 hazardous during this timeframe.
The shortwave continues pressing east across the UP Tuesday,
overspreading a light 1-3" across the area. Ensembles and NBM
guidance suggests a 50-80% chance for amounts >3" by Tuesday evening
in the eastern UP where the wombo-combo lake effect band and system
snow work between Manistique and the Soo. Light lake effect snow
trails behind this passing clipper for the northwest wind snowbelts
Tuesday night.

The second clipper follows quickly behind the heels of the first
departing system late Tuesday into Wednesday, though a sharper upper
level wave will allow a deeper surface low pressure and stronger
forcing for ascent. There is still uncertainty in the track of the
surface low center and overall strength as the latest 00z ensembles
general move the surface feature across central WI early Wednesday
morning ranging from 979-991 mb. Given the current track, the
heaviest snow axis remains planted across northern WI, however a 50
mi shift north over the next 24-48 hours will make a world of
difference in terms of accumulating snow. Lake effect snow returns
to the N to NW wind snowbelts on the backside of the departing
clipper through the rest of Wednesday.

Continued weak clippers and lake effect snow chances remain in the
outlook through the mid to late week given the persistent NW flow
aloft and baroclinic zone remaining draped across the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Lake effect snow showers will continue downwind of Lake Superior
this afternoon from the northwest. These will primarily impact
KIWD/KCMX before easing this evening. Until they do, IFR is expected
at these sites and MVFR at KSAW. As winds shift to southwesterlies,
another round of snow may move into KCMX tonight, but confidence
isn`t very high, so prob30 groups were introduced. Otherwise, all
sites should trend to VFR this evening and light winds take hold.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Westerly winds 20-30 kts are beginning to veer NW this morning as a
clipper to the south presses east and ridging builds overhead. These
elevated NW gusts will continue through today across the eastern
lake before letting up below 15 kts and backing southwest late into
early Monday. Gusty SW winds then pick up ahead of the next clipper
system Monday, reaching upwards of 30 kts. A few isolated gales to
35 kts are possible across the eastern lake overnight into Tuesday
(30-50% chance). Winds quickly shift to the N-NW late Tuesday into
Wednesday as as stronger clipper moves through central WI. Here,
Gales to 35 kts are becoming more likely (40-70% chance, highest
chance near the Keweenaw).

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...BW