693
FXUS63 KMQT 100517
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1217 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heaviest expected snow tonight has shifted farther south into
  Wisconsin. Snow amounts closer to 1 to 3" now expected near
  the WI border. Higher amounts remain possible over the
  southern half of Menominee County (50% chance for greater than
  4" of snow). The Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled
  for Gogebic, Iron, and Dickinson Counties, but remains in
  effect for Menominee County through 6 AM CST Wednesday.

- Gale Warnings remain in effect for much of Lake Superior late
  tonight into Wednesday.

- Cooler than normal temperatures continue through this week and
  beyond. Low temperatures in the single digits to near zero are
  possible late this week into this upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Upper Michigan is in a lull between systems this afternoon, with
cloudy skies and highs in the 20s across most of the area as of 3 PM
Tuesday. More active weather returns to the region tonight as GOES
water vapor imagery reveals the next clipper system to impact the
area currently upstream over the Dakotas, with a shortwave trough
dropping out of the Canadian Prairies and an attendant surface low
deepening to 989 mb near Fargo. Models have mostly converged on the
track of the low through Wednesday morning as the bulk of 12z Hi-Res
guidance has finally latched on to the more southerly solution
advertised by global models in recent days. As a result, heaviest
snow amounts have shifted farther south across Wisconsin tonight
with the latest HREF probs now keeping any 1" per hour snowfall
rates well south of the state line. Have thus revised snow amounts
downward to 1-3" along the border and removed Gogebic, Iron, and
Dickinson Counties from the Winter Weather Advisory, with most
locations looking more likely to end up on the lower end of that
range per the latest forecast trends. Still could see some higher
amounts across Menominee County where NBM and HREF guidance still
depict around a 50% chance to see 4" or greater over the southern
half of the county. Have therefore left the Winter Weather Advisory
in effect for Menominee County only through early Wednesday morning.

Lake effect snow showers will ramp up again across the NW wind snow
belts tonight into Wednesday morning on the backside of the system,
but amounts will mostly be fairly minimal given rather dry air in
the mid levels. Could see another 2-4" aided by upslope flow from
Negaunee/Ishpeming into the Michigamme Highlands, but lower
elevations closer to the lake will probably see closer to 1-2"
through Wednesday morning. We will then settle into a fairly benign
pattern through the back half of the work week, with highs in the
20s and lows in the teens and light lake effect snow lingering over
the east into Friday.

Models continue to hint at another clipper traversing the area later
on Friday, but this system does not look particularly impactful in
terms of snow amounts at this time. Another shot of arctic air will
move into the area this weekend in the wake of this system as 850 mb
temps plummet to -20 to -25C by early Sunday. This will correspond
to daytime highs in the single digits to low teens and overnight
lows flirting with below zero readings for Saturday and Sunday.
Another clipper may then approach the region early next week, but
models continue to differ greatly with respect to strength,
progression, and timing of this feature.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1216 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

MVFR will be the predominant flight category early this moring
at all TAF sites as a clipper system remains south with not much
impact on TAF sites. Nonetheless, expect deterioration to
MVFR/IFR after Wed 10Z as lake effect snow showers ramp up
across the northwest wind snowbelts. In addition, northerly
winds will become impactful in the wake of the aforementioned
clipper system with gusts up to 25 kts at IWD/SAW and up to 30
kts at CMX.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 343 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Lighter northwest winds of 10-15 kt across the waters this evening
will quickly give way to stronger northeast breezes overnight as a
strong surface low passes to the south over Lake Michigan. Gales
remain in effect for much of the lake from late tonight through
Wednesday morning, with waves building to 10+ feet near the Keweenaw
and over the eastern half. Gales will linger over the eastern half
of the lake into Wednesday evening as winds shift northwesterly in
the wake of the system passing to the south. Then expect a period of
lighter west-northwest winds below 20 kt as we settle into a quieter
through the latter half of the work week. Another system will bring
renewed gale chances during the weekend, with freezing spray
concerns also increasing as a frigid air mass moves over Lake
Superior.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 4 AM to 11 AM EST this morning for
     LSZ242>244-263-264.

  Gale Warning from 7 AM to 11 AM EST this morning for LSZ245-
     247-248-265.

  Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening
     for LSZ249-250-266.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...CB