050
FXUS63 KMQT 281815
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
215 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures today with widespread high in
  the mid to upper 60s.

- A quick hitting system brings widespread light rain to the
  U.P. tonight into early Thursday. Expect fairly minimal
  amounts in most locations, with the best chance for a wetting
  rain over the western UP.

- Expect a cooler and drier end to the work week as temperatures
  settle back into the mid 40s and 50s for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Early afternoon GOES WV imagery and RAP analysis reveal a trough
over Manitoba, extending south into the Dakotas with a deeper trough
further upstream over the Pacific Northwest. This is supporting two
areas of low pressure over western Canada. The southern shortwave
moving northeast through this evening from the Dakotas to Northern
Ontario quickly shoves a sfc low with it over western Lake Superior
before it phases with the low to the northwest. The rest of this
afternoon remains dry as warm air advection yields unseasonable
temps well above normal (+15-25 F) in the 60s. South winds become
breezy by this evening as a 50-60 kt LLJ sets up. Gusts of 20-25 mph
are expected with gusts around 30 mph in areas of downslope flow.
Favorable dynamics support a quick hitting round of rain showers and
thunderstorms with the cold front pressing through. PWATs briefly
reach 1 to 1.15 inches, supporting 0.1 to 0.5 inches of rainfall
over the west half. Lesser amounts below 0.25 inches are expected in
the east, mainly around 0.1 inch as these thunderstorms weaken. Bulk
shear will be plenty strong given the aforementioned LLJ, but MUCAPE
values struggle to reach 500 J/kg and decrease into tonight. Modest
lapse rates could support gusty winds when these arrive in the west
should they hold together, but arrival after sunset is not favorable
for strong storms to persist. SPC has a marginal risk in the west
for damaging winds.

The UP will be in the wake of the cold front Thursday morning as the
low moves to Quebec. Expect cooler temps and breezy west winds
courtesy of CAA and pressure rises. Gusts in the Keweenaw and near
Lake Superior will likely be between 25-35 mph. Temps peak in the
upper 40s to upper 50s, coldest northwest. Dry air initially clears
skies out early Thursday morning, but colder air begins to result in
lake effect clouds. There is a low chance for lake effect rain
showers Thursday night in the far east (15-24% chance); any rainfall
amounts would be negligible. Temps return to near normal Thursday
night in the 20s to mid 30s, coldest interior west. The exception to
this is for mid 30s to upper 40s far east where insulating lake
effect cloud cover resides.

Cooler and drier weather continues into Friday as surface high
pressure moves directly overhead, tapering off winds. Lake effect
cloud cover decreases, yielding plenty of sunshine as 850 mb temps
warm. High pressure extending overhead through the weekend likely
keeps dry weather going (85-90% chance). Temperatures return to the
50s with morning lows warming back to the 40s by the start of next
week. Guidance then hints at a stronger system moving out of the
Plains and approaching the Great Lakes during the early part of next
week, but a lot of variation with respect, to track, timing, and
intensity remains. Thus 25-50% PoPS return Monday night and persist
the remainder of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 159 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A shortwave will bring a round of rain showers as it passes from west
to east this evening, reaching IWD/CMX between ~22-03Z and SAW by 03-
05Z. There is a around a 30% chance that IWD could also see a
thunderstorm as this system passes through. MVFR conditions are
expected overnight, with conditions improving to VFR during the day
on Thursday. Southerly winds with gusts around 25 kts will be seen
this evening, with winds expected to become westerly overnight as
the system moves through. LLWS will also be present at all sites
tonight as the shortwave passes through.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Lake Superior: South winds quickly increase tonight to 15-30 kts,
strongest over the east half as another low tracks to northern
Ontario. A cold front sends a round of rain showers and
thunderstorms from west to east this evening into tonight,
potentially yielding gusts up to 35 kts at times (30-50% chance).
Winds shift westerly behind the cold front for Thursday between 20-
30 kts, strongest over the east half of the lake where cold air
advection and pressure rises continue to suggest a 40-60% chance for
gale force gusts around 35 kts. Opted again to hold off on a Gale
Warning given spatial and duration uncertainty as well as
significant discrepancies among probabilistic guidance. Winds
diminish below 20 kts from west to east Thursday night into Friday
morning as high pressure builds over the region. Winds are expected
to remain below 20 kts through early next week with continued high
pressure influence. Significant wave heights increase to 3-6 ft by
early Thursday morning, then rise further by Thursday afternoon to 4-
8 ft in the west and 6-11 ft in the east. Waves then settle below 4
ft from west to east through Friday morning.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Another low
passing north of the area tonight increases southerly winds to 20-30
kts through early Thursday morning. Waves increase to around 3-4 ft
in the bay and 5-7ft in northern Lake Michigan tonight, settling
below 4 ft by Thursday afternoon. Winds shift westerly at 10-15 kts
behind a passing cold front on Thursday, with lighter winds then
expected this weekend through early next week courtesy of high
pressure.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...77