694
FXUS63 KMQT 102327
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
727 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Best shot at widespread measurable rain Thursday night into
  Friday. Probability of at least 1 inch is around 15-30%,
  highest in the south.

- Generally below normal temps continue through this weekend
  then warm back up to near normal for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 127 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows a negatively tilted trough
pivoting away along the ON/QC border, with low-amplitude ridging
building in upstream over the local area. Another area of shear
vorticity is evident upstream in NW flow near the ND/MB border.
Although deeper moisture associated with the trough that brought
yesterday`s showers has exited, lower clouds have been stubborn and
remain widespread across the UP this afternoon. Do expect a clearing
trend through the rest of the day, although it may be later than
originally anticipated. A few showers are developing over the east
as projected by CAMs, but clouds are hampering what little
instability is left, so the probability of a thunderstorm is 20% or
less this afternoon.

Tonight, a weak surface wave develops in association with the
upstream vort max, which will likely bring a quick round of showers
and isolated thunderstorms moving west to east across the UP 04-12Z.
Lows are expected to be in the mid-40s to low 50s. High pressure
builds in the wake of this system for Wednesday, leading to a dry
day. Northwest flow will develop but cold advection will be offset
by mixing, with highs in the south central possibly reaching into
the mid/upper 70s. Meanwhile, areas on the west side of the Keweenaw
may only reach near 60 due to the onshore flow. Areas of wildfire
smoke will likely result in a hazy sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Upper MI will be situated between two shortwaves moving E Wed night.
The associated sfc low with the stronger shortwave to the N will
have already departed to Quebec with no impacts to the region by
this period. The S shortwave moving over WI with the help of more
widespread lift from an 110kt upper level jet looks to support some
-shra in the region. How far N this precip reaches into the UP
will depend on track of the wave which still has some level of
variability within model guidance, but impacts will be low (or none)
regardless. Model soundings indicate that dry low level show very
little available moisture with lackluster lift to achieve measurable
-ra. If anything is able to materialize in the CWA, best chances
(20% or less) are in the S. Otherwise, temps settle into the 40s to
low 50s.

Weak high pressure building into the region from the N keeps dry
conditions going on Thu as a more amplified shortwave tracks over
the N Plains. Some lake breeze interactions are possible in the
afternoon keeping cooler conditions near the Great Lakes where highs
are expected in the 50s to mid 60s, interior temps will peak in the
mid 60s to low 70s before temps settle overnight into the 40s.

The best shot at precip this fcst is Thu night into Fri. The
shortwave over the N Plains on Thu tracks over the region through
Fri night. This again is accompanied by some better dynamic support
as well as strong isentropic ascent along the warm front. Model
soundings within the heavy QPF are indicative of a deep warm cloud
layer to at least 10kft and pwats ~1.3", but no training is
anticipated with the faster corfidi vectors. Ultimately, the track
of the shortwave, placement of the stronger f-gen, and strength of
the sfc high pressure to the NW will impact where the heaviest
corridor of precip ends up. The latest cluster analysis highlights
how each model suite is generally a different solution with not
great agreement for 3 days out. Regardless, this does look to bring
at least some widespread measurable ra to the CWA. Current NBM
probabilities of at least 1.0" are ~15-30%, highest over the S. This
period will also be cold with highs only in the 50s and lows in the
40s; would not be surprised if some spots dipped into the upper 30s.

Dry weather then returns to the UP, likely for the remainder of the
weekend as sfc high pressure persists and additional shortwaves hold
off. Temps begin to warm, but still are expected to be cooler than
normal. This weak pattern should break early next week with
additional waves emanating out off the N Plains. That said, spread
is too high for deterministic details, so the NBM PoPs were left as
is. Temps continue to warm near normal for the start of the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 726 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

VFR conditions prevail tonight, although a band of showers is
expected to move west to east across the terminals 04-09Z; chance of
thunder is less than 20%. VFR conditions continue on Wednesday with
wildfire smoke resulting in hazy skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

South to southwest winds of 10-20 kts with a few gusts to 25 kts
(mainly this afternoon/evening) are expected across all of Lake
Superior this afternoon into tonight. On Wednesday, southwest to
northwest of 10-20 kts winds are expected, with a few gusts to 25
kts possible. Winds switch to the north/northeast on Thursday,
mainly under 20 kts, then shift to the east on Friday with some 20-
25 kt gusts.

Isolated showers are expected this evening into Wednesday morning,
with the next chance for showers arriving on Friday.

Skies will be hazy skies at times this week as smoke from Canadian
wildfires spreads across the region. A thicker area of smoke looks
to arrive late today into Wednesday, with some of the smoke possibly
making it to the surface.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Thompson
LONG TERM...Jablonski
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...SB