947
FXUS63 KMQT 062314
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
614 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance (~20%) for light snow progressing west to east
  into this evening along a cold front, best chances this
  evening over the east (20-40%).

- Seasonably chilly through Saturday, then temperatures warm
  above normal for Sunday into early next week. No significant
  precipitation is in the forecast at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 321 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

Afternoon RAP analysis shows the strong CO low has made it well into
Quebec while weak high pressure and mid level ridging moves into the
Plains. WV imagery highlights a weak clipper low over NW Ontario,
extending a cold front across Lake Superior up against the W edge of
Upper MI. As this clipper continues SE this evening, eventually
phasing with the strong low over N Quebec, the weak cold front
progresses E across the CWA. Dry air from the W cleared skies out
this morning/early afternoon, and as a result, brought temps into
the upper 20s to mid 30s. This also has lowered dewpoints into the
teens to mid 20s. This ~10F dew point depression across the area
will be a limiting factor for any precip moving into this evening
with the passing cold front. So far cloud cover has increased over
the W and radar is showing light returns, however snow has not been
captured yet on webcams. This aligns well with the precip limiting
factor of dry low levels. Thus the forecast represents a brief
period of 15-20% chance for light snow progressing E across the UP
into this evening with up to 0.2" of snow possible in the highlands,
however most of the west will likely only see flurries at best.
Better chances for light snow are over the east (20-40%).

A cooler airmass filters in behind the cold front into Fri with
850mb temps back down to between -12C to -15C. This could support
some lake enhanced to eventually pure LES late over the NW wind snow
belts by Fri morning E of Munising (15-30% chance). Limited
available moisture tonight will keep accumulations likely around 1"
or less over the E. Otherwise some patchy blowing snow is possible
yet into tonight in the Keweenaw and by the Lake Superior shores
where gusty W to NW winds up to 25-35 mph are expected. Lows tonight
mainly fall into the teens, but the interior W could see some single
digits above 0F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 438 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

Cyclonic flow aloft on Fri alongside NW flow over Lake Superior
yielding lake sfc-850mb delta-Ts of 12-17C (higher over the NE
portion of the lake) supports some light LES over the NW wind snow
belts, mainly over the E. Unimpressive moisture and inversion
heights holding ~5kft or lower keep accumulations limited, with a
fluffy 1-3" possible by Saturday morning. Another possible mechanism
supporting light snow is a weak sfc trough and subtle shortwave
dropping SE over W Upper MI during the day Fri. QPF is light over
the W and placement is spread among the current suite of guidance.
Nonetheless, impacts are not anticipated with mainly 0.5" or less.
Otherwise, temps on Fri peak in the mid 20s to mid 30s with lows Fri
night in the single digits W and teens by the lakeshores and E as
weak high pressure moves overhead.

A shortwave approaching from the NW Fri night moves over N MN and WI
on Sat, bringing a weak clipper over the area into Sat night. With
the best lift and moisture remaining S of the CWA, only light
accumulations up to 0.5" are forecast along the WI/MI state line.
Trailing lake enhanced to marginally cold enough NW LES is possible
Sat night, mainly over the east.

Mid level ridging over the Rockies on Sunday progresses E across the
CONUS into next week as it flattens out, yielding a warming trend
Sat night into early next week. Highs Sun - Tue are likely to be in
the 40s save for Keweenaw County with a 33% chance for low 50s near
WI Mon/Tue. Some light snow showers over the far N can`t be ruled
out on Sun ahead of a clipper system tracking just N of Lake
Superior. Despite a stronger clipper system and deeper shortwave
tracking just north of Lake Superior Mon night into Tue, dry weather
looks to persist through mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

VFR conditions prevail through most of the TAF cycle. Main hazard at
CMX is gusty WNW winds to 30-35 kt, but those should quickly
diminish to 25 kt gusts or less for most of the night. Tomorrow,
look for borderline VFR/MVFR cigs to develop during the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 438 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

West winds veer NW this evening behind a cold front with a few gale
force gusts to 35 kts possible tonight over the eastern third of the
lake (~30-50% chance). NW winds settle to 20 kts or less Friday
morning over the west half while 15-25 kt winds maintain over the
east half through the day. Winds veer north and settle below 20 kts
across the lake Friday night. Winds are expected to remain below 20
kts through Saturday night. A clipper system passing just north of
the lake Sunday afternoon into Monday increases southwest winds
during the day to 20-25 kts with winds veering northwest behind the
system into Monday. Northwest winds up to 30 kts are possible
Sunday night over the east half of the lake. Winds fall below 20
kts again for Monday, returning out of the south.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jablonski
LONG TERM...Jablonski
AVIATION...Thompson
MARINE...Jablonski