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000
FXUS63 KMQT 261152
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
752 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 416 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2019

...Windy conditions expected to develop from west to east across the
Upper Peninsula today...

Water vapor imagery shows the Upper Peninsula sandwiched between two
main waves, one lifting northeast across the southern and eastern
Great Lakes, and the other digging south towards Lake Superior. Wrap
around moisture/precipitation from the southern stream continues to
impacted far eastern Upper Michigan. Across the west, radar trends
show scattered showers developing ahead of the approaching wave from
the northwest, but dew point depressions are rather high right now,
so doesn`t appear that moisture is reaching the ground at the
moment. In between the two systems, a slackening pressure gradient
across central Upper Michigan has resulted in patchy of fog, with a
few spots seeing more persistent widespread fog.

Today: As the above mentioned upper-level wave off to our northwest
digs south across the region today a quick moving cold front will
charge eastward. as of early this morning, the front has already
begun to work into far western parts of Upper Michigan, and is
progged to reach central U.P. by daybreak and eastern U.P. by mid-
morning. With tightly-packed isobars along and behind the cold
front, strengthening cold air advection and winds just above the
surface increasing to 35-45kt throughout the day, we`re looking a
windy day across the area. With cold air advection increasing and
steepening the low-level lapse rates, mixing will allow for stronger
winds to mix down to the surface. Right now, the windiest areas look
to be across across the tip of the Keweenaw, near Lake Superior from
Marquette eastward and inland areas between Lake Superior and
Michigan. It is not out of the question that these areas could see
wind gusts approach 40-45mph, with high gusts possible at times,
later today. Due to this potential, did hoist a wind advisory for
the tip of the Keweenaw, north central, and eastern Upper Michigan.
Areas across the west and south central could very well see wind
gusts approach advisory criteria, but confidence was not. As a
result of these strong winds coming onshore off of Lake Superior,
waves will build upwards of 10-13 feet east of Marquette this
afternoon into early Saturday morning. Due to high water levels,
these high waves will cause minor beach erosion and the potential
for lakeshore flooding. For now, with the waves being borderline,
opted to message the threat and impacts of these large waves within
the Wind Advisory product.

As the front passes, temperatures will also fall throughout the day
across the central and east, especially near Lake Superior as colder
air works in from the north. Across the far west, temperatures may
rebound a couple of degrees this afternoon behind the front. The
combination of the strong winds and falling temperatures will make
for a brisk to blustery day, depending on where you are. Along the
Lake Superior shoreline this afternoon, where temperatures are
expected to fall into the mid 30s this afternoon it certainly will
feel blustery. The warm spot today will be the south central and
east half through the first part of the day, with highs climbing
into the low to mid 50s ahead of the front.

As the colder air starts to work in along and behind the front,
showers are possible from west to east across the Upper Peninsula.
Initially, showers will start off as rain, but will likely switch
over to snow as temperatures at the surface continue to cool behind
the front. Given the convergence along the strong and gusty winds,
if precipitation switches over to snow blowing snow could cause some
visibility restrictions. However, do not expect much in the way of
snow accumulations.

Tonight: Strong and gusty winds will persist over far eastern Upper
Michigan, where the wind advisory will continue into the overnight
hours. Elsewhere, winds will relax across the west and central parts
of Upper Michigan as high pressure builds in. The combination of cold
air advection, drier air, and wind speeds relaxing (at least across
the west and central) will make for a chilly night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2019

Upper air pattern will have a 500 mb trough in B.C. and a shortwave
in the central plains and another over Ontario 12z Sat. These last
two shortwaves will affect the upper Great Lakes on Sat while the
trough in B.C. moves southeast into the northern plains by Sun
night. System for Sat stays to the south of the area. Next system
comes in for Sun night and will be cold enough for some snow mixed
in with the rain. Temperatures remain below normal this forecast
period.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the
western U.S. with two branches to the trough 12z Mon. The southern
one is over CA while the northern one has a trough in the northern
Rockies 12z Mon. The western trough moves little 12z Tue before
getting pushed into the Rockies 12z Wed. This trough moves into the
plains 12z Thu and the trough moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z
Fri. Temperatures look to continue to stay below normal for this
forecast period.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 752 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2019

As a cold front moves across the area today, northwest winds will
increase and become strong/gusty, especially at KCMX and KSAW.
Northwest winds will gust upwards of 30 to 35 knots later this
morning/afternoon. Behind the front, colder air working into the
area will overspread MVFR ceilings impacting all terminals for about
a 4-6 hour window. Expect these ceilings to scatter out this
evening/tonight as much drier air and calmer winds work into the
region.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 416 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2019

A cold front has begun to traverse far western parts of Lake
Superior early this morning, with winds becoming northwesterly
between 15 and 20 knots. Winds will further ramp up to high-end
gales of 40 to 45 knots and become more northerly over north central
and eastern parts of the lake as the pressure gradient strengthens
and cold air advection funnels southward across the region. With
high pressure quickly building in behind the exiting cold
front/surface trough, winds will weaken dramatically across western
Lake Superior later today compared to the gales expected over the
east half of the lake. Expect the gales to hold on into early
Saturday morning, but winds will gradually relax to below 25 knots
Saturday morning as the aforementioned surface ridge continues to
build into the region. As high pressure lingers through the weekend,
winds will remain around or below 20 knots.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for MIZ005-006-013-014-085.

  Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ001.

  Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Saturday for
     MIZ007.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Saturday for
     LSZ251-267.

  Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Saturday for
     LSZ250-266.

  Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for LSZ248-249-265.

  Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ244-245-264.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight
     for LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ritzman
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Ritzman
MARINE...Ritzman