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000
FXUS63 KMQT 290545
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
145 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Early this morning and today)
Issued at 145 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2023

GOES water vapor imagery and the RAP analysis show the region
continued to be dominated by a dry airmass under a broad
anticyclone. Some high level cirrus clouds have been observed on IR
across the west, but otherwise, the region has been cloud free and
calm. Overnight temps have fallen into the mid-upper 40s for most,
with some high temps currently being observed in the Keweenaw and
near the lakeshores.

For the remainder of the overnight hours and today, no pattern
change is expected. This should support additional cooling into the
low-mid 40s, perhaps into the high 30s in some interior locations.
Once the sun rises, expecting interior locations to warm into the
low-mid 80s while lakeshore areas largely top out in the 70s. With
the light gradient flow and temperature differential between land
and the Great Lakes, expecting afternoon lake breezes to develop.
Another day of healthy mixing should support another round of dry
dewpoints and RH values dipping into the teens and 20s away from the
lakeshores. This will again keep the region on notice for elevated
fire weather concerns. Light winds through the day are expected
though.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 401 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2023

Ridging brings summer-like weather with above normal temps and below
normal precip through the end of the extended period. This summer
weather will be perfect for grilling, dipping toes in the cold lake
water, or getting swarmed by recent mosquito hatches. The primary
weather hazard is fire weather concerns through Wednesday, but a
pulsey shower or storm is possible far west on Wed with more
widespread chances Thursday and Friday. It seems likely that most
places will stay dry though.

The same surface/upper level ridge that has been centered over lower
MI for days continues to gradually weaken and shift east through mid-
week. Southerly winds increase on Tue/Wed advecting a warmer air
mass into the area, but think moisture and associated cloud cover
will be delayed by an extra day. These stronger southerly winds and
somewhat more cloud cover should prevent nighttime lows from
dropping as much Tue-Thu nights. Overall, highs should climb to
around 90F each day with lows generally around 60F. At this time,
Wednesday through Thursday night seems to be the warmest 48 hour
stretch, but precip chances could influence that. Compared to the
past couple days, its increasingly difficult to identify the
previously modeled cool front that was scheduled for Wed/Thu.
Ensemble means show a decent signal for measurable rainfall across
the western UP by the end of the week, but individual ensemble
members show more isolated activity. Increasing moisture and
continued hot weather should result in some lake-breeze/mesoscale
activity. Considering the recent dry stretch and lack of synoptic
forcing, it seems most places will stay dry. Fortunately, RH
values seem to be somewhat higher than previously expected this
weekend.

While it`s currently beyond the extended forecast time frame there
has been a fairly consistent ensemble signal for a more significant
cold front early next week (Jun 5-6). Since moisture pools ahead of
this front for several days, there seems to be a decent chance for
widespread precip. A much cooler high pressure system appears to
build behind this front, probably resulting in renewed fire wx
concerns ... especially if the front doesn`t bring widespread rain.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 129 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2023

With persistent high pressure over the Great Lakes region
maintaining a very dry air mass overhead, VFR and light winds will
prevail thru this fcst period at IWD/CMX/SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 401 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2023

Expect light winds of 20 kts or less to dominate the fcst period
over Lake Superior as high pressure continues to stubbornly hold
over the Upper Great Lakes. A few thunderstorms are possible over
the western portions of the lake Tuesday through Thursday, with the
precip being diurnal in nature. Southerly winds increase to 15-20
knots Tuesday and Wednesday nights, especially across the east half.
A weak front may push across the lake on Thursday with NE winds
developing behind it, but confidence in this FroPa remains low.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTP
LONG TERM...EK
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...EK