337
FXUS63 KMQT 131117
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
717 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Morning clouds and drizzle today will give way to clearing
  skies for the afternoon hours.

- Warmer than normal temperatures are favored by the end of this week.
  In addition, a more active pattern is expected as we head
  towards the latter half of May.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Early this morning surface analysis showed low pressure was now over
Upper Lower Michigan with northerly flow over the U.P. Upslope flow
and lake enhancement was bringing showers and drizzle to the north-
central and eastern U.P, as well as parts of the Keweenaw.
Temperatures had fallen into the 30s across the north and low 40s in
the far south. GOES satellite imagery showed extensive low level
cloudiness was over the Upper Great Lakes.

Low pressure will head east, away from the area today as upper level
ridging builds into the central U.S. This will bring and end to the
rain showers this morning with clearing skies for the afternoon.
Northerly wind will remain gusty over the eastern half of the U.P.
until the pressure gradient begins to relax late this afternoon.
Temperatures will warm into the 50s for most locations and to
near 60 closer to the MI/WI border. Tonight will be chilly
again as clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to
drop into the low to mid 30s.

Warmer weather arrives on Thursday as upper level ridging moves
overhead, producing highs mainly in the 60s across the eastern half
and the low 70s in the west. Expect fairly dry conditions
characterized by minimum humidity values in the 30s and into the 20s
in the interior west, but relatively light winds will help to
preclude any significant fire weather concerns. A front will bring
another round of rain showers Thursday night into Friday as a low
passes well to the north across Ontario. Do not expect a wetting
rain out of this system at this time. The weekend has trended a bit
drier as the area settles into quasi-zonal flow aloft, with
temperatures remaining near or slightly above normal with highs
generally in the 60s in the east and 70s in the west through Sunday.
More active and wetter weather look to return by early next week as
a shortwave trough ejects out of the COlorado Rockies with a broad
low pressure system lifting northeast out of the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 716 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Low cigs will bring LIFR, IFR and MVFR conditions to start the TAF
period this morning but improvement is expected through mid morning
with VFR conditions by early afternoon. Low pressure will continue
to move away from the area today but the pressure gradient will
remain strong enough for breezy northerly winds at SAW. Tonight
winds will become light at all the TAF sites with VFR conditions
continuing.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Southerly gale force gusts will wind down across central portions of
Lake Superior this evening as the clipper system continues to track
eastward across Upper Michigan. This will bring a shift to northwest
winds in the wake of the low tonight into Wednesday. Cold advection
will result in gusty winds of 25-30 kt in many locations, but opted
to cancel the Gale Watch for Wednesday as probabilities for gale
force gusts have dropped to around 25% per both HREF and NBM
guidance. Expect benign conditions with winds mainly 15 kt or less
from as high pressure moves overhead Wednesday night into Thursday.
The next system will bring another round of stringer southerlies to
the eastern half of the lake Thursday night into Friday, but gale
probabilities are relatively low (25-35%) at this time. Then expect
mostly benign conditions to prevail through the weekend ahead of
potentially more active weather early next week.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CB/NL
AVIATION...NL
MARINE...CB