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000
FXUS63 KMQT 180734
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
334 AM EDT Wed May 18 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2022

Sfc high pressure axis remains across eastern Upper Michigan this
morning, with clear skies and dry air allowing for temps out there
to be around the freezing pt to mid 20s at Spincich RAWS. While RAWS
thermometers are lower to the ground (allowing for a warm bias
during the day and cold bias at night) it is the perfect proxy for
frost development as it measures temps more closely to the decoupled
sfc layer. You can see this further with Rexton and Trout Lake RAWS
at 27 and 29 respectively...ERY and CIU are 30 and 32 respectively.
The same holds true across the interior central with Doe Lake and
High Bridge RAWS at 26 and 29 degrees and SAW at 34. Bottom line,
there`s a good chance for frost across the eastern half of the UP
this morning. More along the WI stateline, temps have remained in
the mid 40s with a high cirrostratus deck ahead of a weak low
pressure system.

Heading into today, this passing system to the south through WI may
bring a few showers along southern Menominee County, but any amounts
will be light. Btwn the passing system to the south and a shrtwv
approaching to our WNW, most of the west half of the UP will see a
fair amount of clouds today, with the east half seeing more sun.
SOutherly winds will bring in more low-level moisture across the
western two-thirds of the UP, which will limit any fire wx
potential, and even the far east, where RH falls to 30% won`t last
too long limiting potential there as well. Despite the cloud cover,
western interior should see temps near normal, in the mid 60s and
near 60 elsewhere...except locations along Lk Michigan in the 50s.

The shrtwv shifts across the UP tonight bringing showers and
thunderstorms across the cwa. There is modest instability that will
shift into the western half of the cwa, but as we usually see, the
instability quickly wanes off to the east half. So expect the
showers and thunderstorms across the west to begin diminishing by
the central...with only remnant showers shifting into the east. As
for svr or strong storm potential...it seems rather limited with the
limited factor being instability. With the vigorous shrtwv there is
ample shear in the vcnty, but limited energy outside of the extreme
western portions of the UP.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2022

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the northern
Rockies and Pacific NW 12z Thu. This trough will move into the
northern plains 12z Fri. Pattern does not change much then through
12z Sat. Did not make too many changes to the going forecast.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a deep and broad 500 mb
trough over the western half of the U.S. with a ridge over the
eastern U.S. 12z Sat. A shortwave embedded in the trough over the
northern plains 12z Sat will move to the upper Great Lakes 12z Sun.
Another shortwave will move into the Rockies 12z Mon which will move
into the northern plains 12z Tue and into the upper Great Lakes 12z
Wed. Temperatures look to be below normal for this forecast period.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 127 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2022

Under a dry low-level air mass, VFR conditions will prevail thru the
morning hrs at IWD/CMX/SAW. While VFR conditions will continue at
CMX/SAW during the aftn, low-level moisture will be spreading n and
may result in MVFR cigs developing for a time at IWD during the
later aftn. An approaching disturbance will then spread sct -shra
across Upper MI tonight, leading to a period of MVFR cigs and
possibly brief MVFR vis at all terminals.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 301 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2022

No gales seen in this forecast period. The wind looks to stay under
20 knots into Thu before increasing to south to 30 knots Thu night.
The gusts up to 30kt should be observed mainly at the high obs
platforms. The 30 knot winds look to be the strongest in this
forecast period.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAW
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...07