428
FXUS63 KMQT 141735
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
135 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few nuisance light showers are possible (20-40% chance) at
  times through the weekend.

- An active pattern then continues into next week with almost
  daily chances for rainfall (30-50% chance), although
  confidence is low on timing. The most likely period for
  showers and possibly some thunderstorms is Tuesday through
  Wednesday (50-60% chance).

- Generally below normal temperatures continue through Sunday,
  then warming back up to near normal for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 411 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

GOES-East Nighttime Microphysics RGB imagery shows shallow low-level
to mid-level clouds over much of the UP this evening. Despite weak
isentropic upglide in a relatively moist airmass, any precipitation
early this morning is isolated and light. This is due to the
continued subsidence from a persistent high pressure that the RAP
Analysis shows at 1025 mb centered just south of James Bay.
This high is also contributing to a sharp PWAT gradient from
north- northeast to south-southwest with PWATs of around a half
inch for the northern half of the eastern UP as well as the
Keweenaw Peninsula while PWATs of 1 inch to 1.25 inches remains
along the MI/WI state line. CAMs show that light rain showers
will reinvigorate mainly along the state line with the most
available moisture and best 850mb warm advection and isentropic
upglide, though the HREF does suggest up to 40% chances that the
Keweenaw will see at least some precipitation as well as areas
as far east as Manistique. Precip totals will be lower today
than yesterday with the highest HREF mean QPF being around 0.15
inches for the interior west. For the western 2/3 of the UP,
highs today look to be fairly similar to yesterday with highs in
the 50s, though temperatures trend warmer in the dry eastern
third today with highs reaching into the mid 60s. Plentiful
clouds will flatten the diurnal curve somewhat with low
temperatures tonight only falling to the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Other than a lake breeze evident on the CAMs, winds out of the
east will mainly be 5-10 mph.

CAMs begin to spread out regarding the solutions for Sunday. Many
have a repeat of Saturday with light rain staying mainly along the
state line, though a few solutions show some more robust showers
forming as mid level lapse rates steepen and Euro ensemble mean
MUCAPE blooms to 100-400 J/kg in the western third of the UP by the
evening hours. Therefore, some slight chance (~20%) of thunder has
been added to the forecast. High temperatures look to remain below
normal but continue to trend warmer with highs in the 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Sunday, the 850 mb front continues to broaden and lift north. This
will result in an increase in deep-layer moisture with PWATs
approaching 1.25 inches, which is a standardized anomaly of +1 to +2
sigma per the NAEFS. While forcing will continue to be weak,
isolated to scattered light nuisance showers will continue to be a
possibility with weak isentropic lift continuing, and less of an
influence from the departing high. Highs will likely be a few
degrees warmer than Saturday again, still a bit below normal.

Heading into early next week, modest zonal midlevel flow continues,
with low-level moisture continuing to creep northward. PWATs stay in
the +1 to +2 sigma territory, and dewpoints reach into the 60s. Low-
amplitude waves within the zonal flow on the northern periphery of
the instability reservoir will leave us susceptible to remnants of
upstream convective episodes, with little confidence on timing of
individual episodes at this time. Some signals in the guidance
of a more notable trough crossing the Plains into the Great
Lakes by midweek, which could result in a more widespread precip
event locally. Temps near to above normal Mon/Tue (possibly
modulated by ill-timed rainfall) moderating by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue through this evening at
CMX/SAW while IWD rides high end IFR/low MVFR cigs into tonight. The
next concern will be BR/FG development, lowering vis down to IFR
with potential for LIFR at CMX. Some MVFR cigs may accompany this at
CMX/SAW overnight. SAW/CMX return to VFR Sun morning while IWD lifts
to MVFR. Mostly dry weather is expected during the period, so precip
was left out of the TAFs. Otherwise, light E to NE winds less
than 10 kts this afternoon become calm/variable tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

NE to E winds of mainly 20 kts or less continue through the weekend
as high pressure to the N extends over the lake. The exception to
this is near the Duluth Harbor where channeling NE winds may
approach 25 kts during the daytime hours today and again on Sat.
Otherwise benign disturbances/systems tracking through the region
next week keep winds mainly 20 kts or less the remainder of the
fcst. Otherwise, some thunderstorms are possible Mon afternoon
through Tue.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...Jablonski
MARINE...Jablonski