382
FXUS06 KWBC 012002
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EST Sun November 01 2026

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 07 - 11 2026

Today`s numerical models depict a mean 500-hPa flow pattern that is broadly
consistent with the positive phase of the PNA. A deep slow-moving trough is
forecast over the northeastern Pacific south of Mainland Alaska and west of the
Pacific Northwest. A second trough is forecast near the Aleutians, upstream of
the main cyclonic flow. This second trough is forecast to slide southeastward,
reinforcing the cyclonic flow over the northeast Pacific. As this cyclonic flow
inches closer to the west coast of North America, anomalous ridging, initially
over the western CONUS is forecast to progress eastward toward the High Plains
with above normal heights consolidating over central Canada and the northern
Plains by the end of the period. Meanwhile a trough in the southern stream is
forecast over the southern Plains early in the period. This southern stream
trough is forecast to deepen as it approaches the Lower Mississippi Valley and
the Southeast, eventually making it to the East Coast by day 10. Above normal
mid-level heights are forecast across Hawaii near the western extension of a
ridge forecast over the central Pacific.

Above normal temperatures are likely across the West, due to anomalous ridging
ahead of the deep trough forecast over the northeastern Pacific. As this ridge
progresses eastward, an increasingly warm pattern is favored across the
north-central CONUS, with probabilities of above normal temperatures exceeding
80 percent across the Northern High Plains. Farther to the south and east, a
trough predicted in the southern stream reduces chances of anomalous warmth.
Near normal temperatures are favored in the vicinity of this trough, across
much of the Southeast, Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and parts of the Southern
Plains. Above normal temperatures are more likely across the Northeast and
northern Mid Atlantic, ahead of this trough. Above normal temperatures are
likely across much of eastern Alaska, ahead of the deep trough over the
northeastern Pacific. Near to below normal temperatures are more likely from
the Aleutians to the west coast of the Mainland, closer to the mean trough
axis. Above normal temperatures are likely across Hawaii, mainly in response to
observed above normal SSTs over much of the tropical Pacific, associated with
the current El Nino.

The positioning and strength of the cyclonic flow over the northeast Pacific
promotes an active pattern across much of the west coast of the CONUS and
eastern Alaska. Probabilities of above normal precipitation exceed 50 percent
across parts of the coastal areas of northwestern California, the Pacific
Northwest, and southern portions of Southeast Alaska, where teleconnections
from the mean trough position yield the strongest signal. Above normal
precipitation is also favored across the Rio Grande Valley and vicinity,
associated with a weak surface low early in the period. Above normal
precipitation is also favored along the Eastern Seaboard from the Mid Atlantic
to the Northeast, ahead of the mean trough position over the Southeast and
southern Appalachians. Drier than normal conditions are favored behind this
trough, over the Northern Plains, most of the Great Lakes, the northern
two-thirds of the Mississippi Valley, and adjacent areas of the Ohio Valley. A
slight tilt toward below normal precipitation is also indicated for parts of
western Mainland Alaska, due to predicted mean low level offshore flow. Above
normal precipitation is favored for eastern and central portions of the
Hawaiian islands, consistent with raw precipitation amounts from the ECMWF,
GEFS, and Canadian ensembles.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 25% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 50% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: About Average, 3 out 5, due to
fairly good model agreement among today`s model height solutions offset by
conflicting or weak precipitation signals across much of the country.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 09 - 15 2026

During the week-2 period, the mean strength of the trough off the West Coast of
North America is forecast to increase in comparison to the 6 to 10 day mean
height field. This deep trough is predicted to peak in intensity during the
beginning and middle of week-2 before slowly weakening as it approaches the
Pacific Northwest coast late. Residual cyclonic flow is forecast in its wake
over southwestern Alaska. Downstream ridging over the west-central CONUS is
forecast to consolidate over central Canada and the Northern Plains, before
slowly pushing toward Hudson Bay. Farther to the south, anomalous troughing
over the Southeast early in the period is forecast to progress to the East
Coast, before lifting offshore toward the end of the period. Above normal
mid-level heights are forecast to continue across Hawaii, associated with broad
ridging over the central Pacific.

Above normal temperatures are favored across most of the CONUS associated with
anomalous ridging ahead of the deep trough over the northeastern Pacific. The
highest confidence (greater than 80 percent chance) for anomalous warmth is
indicated for the Northern Plains as the ridge consolidates over the area
throughout much of the period. Above normal temperatures are least likely (less
than 33 percent chance) across much of the Southeast, tied to predicted
troughing. Anomalous warmth is more likely across eastern Alaska, due to
anomalous southeasterly low level flow ahead of a surface low predicted over
the Gulf of Alaska. Near to below normal temperatures are favored behind this
surface low, from the western Mainland to the Aleutians. Above normal
temperatures are favored across Hawaii, underneath predicted above normal
heights and consistent with expansive above normal SSTs associated with the
current El Nino.

As the trough over the eastern Pacific slowly approaches the coast, an active
pattern is likely across much of the West Coast of the CONUS and eastern
Alaska. Probabilities of above normal precipitation exceed 50 percent from
coastal areas of northwestern California and the Pacific Northwest northward to
southern areas of Southeast Alaska, where enhanced moisture flow is most
likely. Above normal precipitation is modestly favored across parts of the
coastal Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, tied to a departing trough and associated
surface low pressure early in the period. In the wake of this trough, increased
surface high pressure is forecast, supporting increased chances of below normal
precipitation across most of the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and adjacent
areas of the Northern Plains. A tilt toward below normal precipitation is also
indicated for parts of western Mainland Alaska, due to predicted low level
offshore flow. Near normal precipitation is favored for most of Hawaii, as a
compromise between wetter raw model output from the ECMWF and GEFS ensembles
and drier calibrated output.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 25% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 50% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, due to
fair model agreement, offset by uncertainties surrounding the evolution of the
precipitation pattern across much of the CONUS.


FORECASTER: Scott H

Notes:


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is
the same as that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below

The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer
(orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal.
Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more
likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being
wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N")
normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of
the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will
be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally
even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry
seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a
forecast of little or no precipitation.

The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as
reference in the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
November 19.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20221110 - 20161028 - 20171013 - 20251012 - 20201108


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20251011 - 20221110 - 20201108 - 20171013 - 19981012


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 07 - 11 2026

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     N    N     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    N    N     LOUISIANA   N    N     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI N    N     MICHIGAN    A    B
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        A    B     KENTUCKY    N    B
TENNESSEE   N    B     ALABAMA     N    N     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  N    N     GEORGIA     N    N
FL PNHDL    N    N     FL PENIN    N    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 09 - 15 2026

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    A    B
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    B     ALABAMA     N    B     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     N    N
FL PNHDL    N    N     FL PENIN    N    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

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