276
FXUS06 KWBC 281905
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Tue July 28 2026

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 03 - 07 2026

The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble mean forecasts generally agree on the
average large-scale circulation pattern over North America for the 6-10 day
period. The manual height blend is based on 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian model
500-hPa height forecasts, weighting the ECMWF ensemble mean greater due to
recent model skill. Models predict an amplified mid-level ridge over Greenland,
consistent with the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A
second high-latitude ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted
over Mainland Alaska and northwestern Canada. All models predict a ridge and
positive 500-hPa height anomalies over the North Pacific and the Aleutian
Islands. Models predict a shortwave trough over central Canada and partially
into the northern central contiguous United States (CONUS). All ensembles
predict a second shortwave trough over the northeastern Pacific to the south of
Mainland Alaska at the start of the 6-10 day period. A ridge and positive
500-hPa height anomalies over the western CONUS at the start of the period
retrogresses westward and amplifies near the coast of Northern California. A
second ridge progresses across the northeastern CONUS. Positive 500-hPa height
anomalies push southward into the eastern CONUS and are forecast over most of
the CONUS by the end of the 6-10 day period. Near normal 500-hPa height
anomalies are predicted in the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands in model
forecasts.

Above normal temperatures are favored over most of Mainland Alaska and
Southeast Alaska, under positive 500-hPA height anomalies. Below to near normal
temperatures are favored for the eastern Aleutians, consistent with nearby
negative sea surface temperature anomalies. Expansive ridging over the western
CONUS and above normal 500-hPa heights over most of the CONUS support likely
above normal temperatures for most of the CONUS. Confidence is high (greater
than 70 percent chance) for above normal temperatures across portions of the
Central Great Basin and surrounding areas. Below normal temperatures are
favored for parts of northern Montana, influenced by a predicted shortwave
trough near the Canadian border. Above normal temperatures are likely for
Hawaii, consistent with most model forecasts and positive sea surface
temperature anomalies in the vicinity.

Above normal precipitation is slightly favored across the central and eastern
Aleutians, consistent with most model forecasts. Under a predicted ridge, below
normal precipitation is slightly favored for interior eastern Mainland Alaska.
Above normal precipitation is favored for parts of northwestern Mainland
Alaska, consistent with the consolidation of calibrated ECMWF and GEFS
precipitation forecasts. Under the mean ridge over the western CONUS, below
normal precipitation is favored for the northwestern CONUS, southeastward into
parts of the Northern and Central Plains. The location of the ridge over the
western CONUS supports enhanced probabilities of above normal precipitation for
parts of the Desert Southwest and Rio Grande Valley. Above normal precipitation
is favored for parts of the northeastern CONUS under cyclonic flow. Above
normal precipitation is also forecast over parts of the Florida Peninsula due
to the enhanced moisture flow from the Gulf of America. Above normal
precipitation is slightly favored for all of the Hawaiian Islands, consistent
with raw model precipitation forecasts.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good
agreement between model forecasts of the mean large-scale mid-level pattern,
offset by a variable pattern during the period and weak signals in
precipitation tools.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 05 - 11 2026

High-latitude ridges and associated positive 500-hPa height anomalies persist
over Mainland Alaska and Greenland in the week-2 ensemble mean forecasts from
the 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian models with decreased amplitude relative to
the 6-10 day period. Cyclonic mid-level flow is forecast over the north-central
CONUS in week 2. Early in the week-2 period, a second shortwave trough is
predicted over the Gulf of Alaska, before being replaced by positive 500-hPa
height anomalies later in the period. Positive 500-hPa height anomalies are
forecast over most of the CONUS. Near normal mid-level heights are forecast
across the Hawaiian Islands.

Below normal temperatures continue to be favored for the eastern Aleutians in
week 2, consistent with negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the
region. Above normal temperatures are favored for Southeast Alaska and most of
Mainland Alaska, under predicted positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Under
expansive ridging and positive 500-hPa height anomalies, above normal
temperatures are likely for most of the CONUS, supported by most of the
dynamical temperature forecast tools. Above normal temperatures are likely for
Hawaii, with positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the vicinity,
consistent with the consolidation temperature forecast tool.

Above normal precipitation is slightly favored for parts of northern and
eastern Mainland Alaska, consistent with the operational autoblend
precipitation forecast tool. Below normal precipitation is predicted over
portions of southwestern Mainland Alaska, under above normal 500-hPa heights.
Retrogression of a ridge over the western CONUS supports below normal
precipitation for the northwestern CONUS from parts of the Pacific Northwest to
parts of the Northern Plains extending southeastward into the Central Plains.
The westward shift of the ridge over the West and a surge of moisture from the
eastern Pacific favor above normal precipitation for much of Southern
California and the Southwest with probabilities exceeding 50 percent for parts
of the Desert Southwest. Above normal precipitation is favored in parts of the
northeastern CONUS, consistent with precipitation anomaly forecasts from the
consolidation. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored across Hawaii
consistent with the consolidation.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to
a changing mid-level height pattern, and differences among precipitation and
temperature tools.

FORECASTER: Luke H

Notes:


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is
the same as that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below

The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer
(orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal.
Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more
likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being
wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N")
normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of
the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will
be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally
even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry
seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a
forecast of little or no precipitation.

The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as
reference in the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
August 20.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20250726 - 20010708 - 20140723 - 20030710 - 20160722


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20010707 - 20030710 - 20160721 - 20250726 - 20230715


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Aug 03 - 07 2026

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   N    B     E MONTANA   N    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    N



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Aug 05 - 11 2026

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$