562
FXUS06 KWBC 142001
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EST Fri November 14 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 20 - 24 2025

Model ensembles from the ECENS, GEFS, and CMCE are in fair agreement with
respect to the evolution of the synoptic picture over North America as depicted
in 500-hPa height anomalies during the 6-10 day forecast period, however there
is quite a bit of spread with regard to the location and intensity of various
synoptic features. Model solutions generally maintain weak to moderate
troughing over the West Coast and weak to moderate ridging over the eastern
third of the Contiguous U.S. (CONUS). Upstream, an amplified trough is favored
to move quickly from the Bering Sea down into the Canadian Rockies, while
ridging builds northward from the North Pacific up into Mainland Alaska.

With persistent ridging over the East Coast and the North Pacific, above-normal
temperatures are favored for most of the CONUS from the Rockies eastward.
Probabilities are highest (>70%) over much of the southeastern CONUS and
decline modestly moving northward, however probabilities exceed 60% from the
eastern Great Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Above-normal temperatures remain
favored but are less likely over much of New England with a weak upper level
trough overhead. Conversely, below-normal temperatures are most likely for the
southwestern CONUS under a passing shortwave trough and increased cloud cover
from Pacific onshore flow. Above-normal temperatures are favored for most of
Alaska due to strong southeasterly flow at the surface. Today`s outlook extends
above-normal chances into the North Slope after consistent indications from
guidance despite the lack of incoming solar radiation limiting the potential
for any daytime heating. Ridging over the North Pacific and positive sea
surface temperature (SST) anomalies favor above-normal temperatures for Hawaii.

Persistent and fairly deep troughing over the western CONUS along with a
shortwave trough traversing the Southern Tier results in above-normal
precipitation being favored for most of the CONUS. Probabilities are highest
(>60%) over eastern portions of the Southern and Central Plains, and the Middle
Mississippi Valley, and probabilities exceeding 50% extend from the
southwestern CONUS across much of the Great Plains and into the Mississippi and
Ohio Valleys. Near-normal precipitation is indicated for the southern Florida
Peninsula, consistent with most forecast tools, as well as for coastal portions
of the Pacific Northwest as ridging is favored to build over the North Pacific.
Southeasterly surface flow favors above-normal precipitation across most of
Alaska, while near-normal precipitation is favored for the North Slope by model
guidance. Hawaii tilts slightly towards above-normal precipitation, consistent
with most forecast tools.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 33% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 34% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 33% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5. Good
agreement among the temperature and precipitation dynamical and statistical
tools, offset by diverging model solutions with respect to evolution of
synoptic features over the North Pacific.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 22 - 28 2025

Ensemble solutions have more spread with respect to the rearrangement of
large-scale features over the higher latitudes, but all generally indicate a
wavetrain to become established across North America, with positive height
anomalies over the North Pacific, troughing over the western CONUS, weak
ridging over the Eastern Seaboard, and weak troughing over the North Atlantic.
Ridging over the North Pacific is favored to become quite amplified later in
week-2, with positive height anomalies extending well into the Arctic Ocean.

Above-normal temperatures continue to be favored east of the Rockies, exceeding
60% chances over much of the southeastern CONUS and extending northward into
the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley. Chances of below-normal temperatures are
favored to increase west of the Rockies during week-2, as amplified riding over
the Pacific and Alaska help push colder Arctic air southward along the Rockies.
In Alaska, odds tilt towards above-normal temperatures for the Mainland, while
mixed guidance from forecast tools results in near-normal temperatures being
favored for Southeast Alaska. Continued positive height anomalies to the north
and relatively warm SSTs favor above-normal temperatures for Hawaii.

Weak but broad troughing over the western CONUS along with increasing return
flow around high pressure over the western Atlantic tilts the odds towards
above-normal precipitation for most of the Lower 48. Probabilities are much
lower than the 6-10 period likely due to increased model spread, but modestly
enhanced (>40%) chances remain for much of the Four Corners, Great Plains, and
the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, based on the synoptic pattern and supported
by most forecast tools. Probabilities above 50% are indicated for much of the
Middle Mississippi Valley and surrounding areas where models indicate the
greatest focus of return flow moisture. Near-normal precipitation is indicated
along much of the East Coast, as well as the West Coast north of Point
Conception. Models have been trending drier over the North Pacific and a slight
tilt towards below-normal precipitation is introduced in today`s outlook for
coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest and Southeast Alaska. Above-normal
precipitation continues to be favored for most of central and western Mainland
Alaska under continued southeasterly flow at the surface. Forecast tools also
favor a slight tilt towards above-normal precipitation for Hawaii.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 33% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 34% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 33% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5. Good
agreement among the temperature and precipitation dynamical and statistical
tools is offset by diverging model solutions early in the forecast period.

FORECASTER: Daniel Barandiaran

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
November 20.






6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 20 - 24 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      N    A     NRN CALIF   N    A
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      N    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 22 - 28 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    N     OREGON      B    N     NRN CALIF   B    N
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    N    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$