694
FXUS64 KMRX 051118
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
618 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 613 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

- Winter Weather Advisories continue for light snow/sleet
accumulations in SW VA and NE TN mountains.

- Drying aloft should end measurable precip a little after
  sunrise, but drizzle may linger until noon.

- Dry Saturday, rain returns Sunday with a possible transition to
  snow in northern sections Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Overall, the previous forecast is handling the situation pretty
well, considering the mix p-types across the area. Sleet has been
more prevalent than models projected, but the placement of the
Advisory has been nicely aligned with the rain-sleet-snow transition
area based on reports we have been receiving. Radar is showing
precip coverage being more scattered in western sections as dry air
aloft builds in and cuts off the dendrite growth potential. Parts of
SW VA may continue to see several more hours of snow/sleet with some
additional light accumulations of ~1 inch in Wise and Russell
counties where surface temps have been near to below freezing,
possibly up to 2 in higher elevations like High Knob, so the Winter
Weather Advisory will continue. The Plateau counties will likely be
able to be canceled before the 12Z end time, and additional
accumulations there should not be very significant. Low level
moisture will remain in place through most of the day, with a slow,
gradual scouring from the top down, suggesting a light drizzle may
linger into the early afternoon.

A westerly flow aloft and surface high pressure keeps dry conditions
in place Saturday. Another disturbance brings a chance of rain back
into the forecast on Sunday. There could be some wintry precip
Sunday night as cold advection sets in, but confidence is low on the
depth of moisture available and the timing of the cold air arrival
with adequate moisture to produce any measurable snowfall.

Broad troughing over the eastern Conus will persist through the rest
of the forecast period, with some disturbances moving across our
area, but with limited moisture. A potential stronger shortwave may
bring better precip chances in the Thursday/Friday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Overall, poor aviation conditions are expected to continue with
all sites reporting IFR to LIFR as rain. TRI is most likely to
have at least some periods of MVFR this morning with CHA and TYS
staying down as rain exits the area. CHA and TYS are then
expected to improve to low-end MVFR by the afternoon with TRI
then becoming more IFR than the others. Overnight tonight, further
reductions to IFR or LIFR are increasingly likely but were left
out of the TAF for the time being. Winds will be light and
variable at all sites through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             49  37  51  35 /  10   0  10   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  45  37  49  32 /  20   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       45  35  48  32 /  10   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              41  36  45  29 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Anderson-
     Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Morgan-Northwest Carter-
     Scott TN-Southeast Carter-Sullivan-Unicoi.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Johnson.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Lee-
     Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW