099
FXUS64 KMRX 312302 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
702 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

- Dry and pleasant conditions for outside activities this evening.

- A 40-60 percent chance of light rain across southeast Tennessee
  and Plateau beginning late tonight through Sunday night.
  However, most areas remain dry.

- Dry and mild weather for the first couple of days next week.

- Increasing chances of rain and gusty mountain winds for mid to
  late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Currently, ridging surface and aloft are producing another dry and
mild day across the region.  Plenty of high level cloudiness.
Overall, nice conditions for outside activities this evening.

For late Tonight through Sunday night, a short-wave will move across
the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Pressure falls associated with this
wave will increase the low-level jet over middle Tennessee into the
Plateau inducing isentropic lift. Strongest lift will be across the
Plateu counties and southeast Tennessee. Since moisture return will
be greatest over these areas, best coverage of showers will be west
of interstate 75. For areas east of interstate 75, weaker isentropic
lift and continued dry boundary layer will only allow for areas of
sprinkles or dry conditions.

A weak mountain wave event will occur across the mountains and
foothills for tonight and Sunday but sustained wind speed and gusts
will remain below advisory criteria.

For Monday and Tuesday, upper and surface ridging will produce dry
and unseasonably warm conditions. Highs will be 5 to 10 degrees
above normal.

For Tuesday night through Friday, a stronger upper trough will move
into the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians. Ensemble
cluster analysis do show a good deal of variance regarding the
strength and timing of this system. Main impacts will be much needed
rainfall for much of the area along with the potential of mountain
wave downslope winds into the mountains and foothills. Temperatures
will remain near to slightly above normal.

This system exits the area by next weekend with drier conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Mid to high clouds will cover the area through the period. At CHA,
ceilings will lower around sunrise as low level moisture spreads
in, and may produce some light rain on and off through the day.
Rain is expected to be light enough to maintain VFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             55  64  54  72 /  30  60  30  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  55  67  53  73 /  10  30  20   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       55  65  51  72 /   0  40  30   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              51  68  50  72 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DGS