Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
011 FXUS64 KMRX 221736 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1236 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1233 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 - Mild temperatures continue through the weekend and the first part of next week. - Another system brings the potential for rain and wind across the area Monday night into Wednesday, followed by colder temperatures for Thanksgiving. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1233 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 A few light showers may linger tonight across the east TN mountains and foothills. West to northwest flow will provide orographic lift and will help squeeze out in lingering moisture that is trapped against the mountains. Dry and mild Sunday through Monday as high pressure builds into the region. Monday night into Tuesday is when our next system approaches. Rain, wind, and a few storms are expected with this system. Winds begin increasing across the east TN mountains and other high terrain locations Monday night as the 850mb jet begins to increase. The wind direction looks favorable to where we could have some mountain wave winds. Whether this occurs or not though, the 850mb jet will be around 40kts. This means that our highest elevations can expect to see wind gusts to around 40 mph due to the synoptic winds. If the pattern remains favorable for mountains waves, then these higher winds may impact our mountain wave prone locations, such as Camp Creek. Rain spreads in on Tuesday and soundings show elevated instability, so a few storms are expected as well. If we do see any strong storms, the main threat will likely be straight line damaging winds if the higher winds aloft can be brought down to the surface. Rain clears out Tuesday night into Wednesday behind the associated cold front. Colder and drier weather is expected for Thanksgiving and into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 Scattered to broken clouds are expected to be around the TAF sites through the afternoon and evening, mainly at VFR levels. With boundary layer cooling, the clouds should expand and lower to MVFR levels at TYS and TRI. Drier air at CHA should result in scattered to few clouds. Westerly winds this afternoon will be in the 10-15 kt range with a few gusts above 15 kt, then shift to north with a frontal passage, and drop under 10 kt through the rest of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 68 44 69 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 64 41 66 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 46 64 40 64 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 60 35 64 / 10 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...DGS