814
FXUS64 KMRX 031145
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
745 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 740 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- Several rounds of rain expected through the weekend, favoring
  northern areas this morning, then switching to southern and
  eastern areas this afternoon through Sunday.

- Drier and cooler conditions will return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

In the upper levels, a broad trough extends from the Dakotas to New
England. A weak ridge is over the extreme Southeast (FL/GA/SC). The
latest surface analysis shows a slow moving cold front just upstream
over Middle Tennessee. Scattered showers will continue overnight
mainly north of I-40. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out
but showers have been shallow so far. This afternoon scattered
showers and isolated storms will be mainly south of I-40 and east of
Knoxville, closer to the foothills and mountains as the slow moving
cold front moves into East Tennessee. Rain chances are highest on
Sunday as a weak shortwave moves through the Ohio Valley to the
north. The frontal boundary will be nearly stationary just to our
south bringing overrunning conditions. Additional rainfall this
weekend will be 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher amounts. Some
locations already received 1 to 2 inches over the past several
hours due to repeated showers.

The rain will end by Monday morning as a trough pushes the cold
front out of the region. At the surface, high pressure settles in
over the Eastern U.S. Dry weather is expected all next week with
high pressure dominating the pattern. Temperatures will be near
normal early in the week with a slight warming trend late in the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 740 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Rain showers continue to spread across the area, though they have
been slowest progressing towards CHA. Rain and low stratus will
continue to promote MVFR to IFR conditions through much of the
morning, gradually improving mid-day and into the early afternoon.
Low VFR cigs are expected to persist through the period, however.
Additional showers and storms are expected to develop late tonight
into tomorrow morning. Have reintroduced VCSH for this activity.
Greater coverage/confidence of precipitation is expected just
beyond the 12Z period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             87  69  79  63 /  60  70  90  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  82  67  77  62 /  60  50  90  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       80  65  76  59 /  60  50  90  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              77  63  72  58 /  80  50  90  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...KRS