954
FXUS64 KMRX 141138
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
638 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 636 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

- Light rain likely in northern Tennessee and southwest Virginia
  Saturday night into Sunday thanks to a weak cold front.

- Breezy winds areawide this weekend with near wind advisory level
gusts across the highest elevations of the east TN mountains.

- Medium chances for rain next Tuesday. No significant hazards
  expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Another dry day on tap today with low afternoon RH values expected
under okay mixing. Probabilities of a shower tonight in Virginia
have dropped again, so no longer expecting rain. Weak front
Saturday night into Sunday morning is still expected, with
strengthening westerly wind flow aloft leading to likely breezy
conditions on Saturday, medium chances of exceeding wind advisory
criteria in the higher elevations of the mountains Saturday night
thanks to that strong wind field. Otherwise the front will deliver
light rainfall, generally less than a tenth of an inch.

We are pivoting towards a more upbeat tempo in our shortwaves,
with the front not bringing a significant airmass change with it,
and flow reverting back to a southwesterly motion ahead of a
shortwave still expected on Tuesday. Temperatures next week will
maintain their mild characteristics, though not as warm as
Saturday`s peak warmth. A series of Pacific systems will be
entering the US over the next week, first one is within our
forecast period locally and has more significant uncertainty
regarding its ejection from the Rockies/southern Plains and when
it will head towards the Ohio River valley region late next week.
That one may, depending on how it evolves, present a mountain wave
wind event and heavier rainfall, though details are very low
confidence at this range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR and dry conditions expected through the TAF period, with light
winds. An overcast desk around 5k feet will be forming in
southwest VA and northeastern TN by the end of the period with a
20% chance of MVFR CIGs at KTRI post 09z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             71  45  74  59 /   0   0   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  67  46  70  59 /   0   0   0  40
Oak Ridge, TN                       66  44  70  58 /   0   0   0  50
Tri Cities Airport, TN              63  44  66  55 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...Wellington