558
FXUS64 KMRX 281659
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1259 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Key Messages:

1. Though temperatures will moderate some through Sat/Sun, readings
will stay just below normal through the forecast period.

2. Dry for the next couple of days before precipitation creeps back
into the area from the south on Saturday. Afternoon and evening
scattered activity appears to return during the new work-week.

Discussion:

A stationary boundary will remain well south of us, near the Gulf
coast, for the next several days. This will be reinforced by another
front that will move through our forecast area tomorrow, driven by a
shortwave embedded in the synoptic scale troughing over the eastern
CONUS. Dry conditions should continue for much of the area through
Saturday it appears. The frontal passage tomorrow will be dry
in our CWA, and rain that develops or is ongoing along the
stalled Gulf boundary will remain well south of us. There`s some
uncertainty on Sat and Sun regarding rain chances in our CWA.
Persistent southern stream jet energy over top of the Gulf
boundary may push an H85 low ESE from the Memphis area to central
Georgia. This combined with a surface CAD setup east of the
Appalachians may produce enough convergence over the mountains to
support some shower activity near the GA/TN/NC border areas on Sat
and further up the mountain chain on Sun. Current NBM guidance
has some slight chance to low- end chance PoPs in those respective
areas on Sat and Sun and I can`t say that`s unreasonable so I left
it in the forecast.

Sunday into next week the details in the upper pattern begin to get
a little messy. An upper trough topping a developing western ridge
attempts to cutoff over the northern plains, producing a short-lived
blocking pattern over the upper midwest and into Canada by Sunday
night into Monday before the large scale troughing over the eastern
United States actually deepens through the end of the period. As far
as tangible weather impacts go, rain chances increase area wide on
Monday and beyond as the upper trough deepens and embedded
shortwaves pass overhead from time to time.

Despite some moderation through Saturday, temperatures will actually
remain several degrees below normal throughout the entirety of the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

VFR conditions with light and variable winds are expected through
the period at all terminals. Some guidance hints at some fog
development at KTRI tonight, but it`s in the minority of guidance
and a persistence forecast suggests it`s not likely to occur so
I`ve left it out of the 18z package.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             59  87  63  86 /   0   0  10  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  56  84  60  86 /   0   0  10  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       56  85  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              52  80  56  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD