649
FXUS64 KMRX 172351
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
651 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 637 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

- Low relative humidity again tomorrow with increasing winds. This
  will lead to enhanced fire danger.

- Warmer weather to return Tuesday through Friday, with significant
warm weather Knoxville and south Wednesday and Thursday.

- Light rainfall Tuesday night with potential for a few
  thunderstorms. Medium rain chances return on Thursday with
  additional rain likely on Friday into Saturday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Calm and clear tonight. Tomorrow, we switch from northerly flow to
southerly flow ahead of an approaching shortwave. However, the
airmass is very dry and it will take some time for dewpoints to rise
across the region. This will allow for another day of low relative
humidities across the area. In addition, winds will begin to increase
ahead of the shortwave. This combination of dry air and increasing
winds will allow for Enhanced Fire Danger across the entire area.

Precipitation begins to move into the area Tuesday night. The
bulk of the precip is expected to occur across our northern areas,
with our southwest VA counties averaging around 0.25 inches.
Little rainfall, around 0.1 inches or less, is expected south of
I-40. Soundings show some elevated instability in place so perhaps
we will hear a rumble of thunder or two as well. Light and
scattered showers and cloud cover persist across the region
through Wednesday. Despite the clouds on Wednesday, abnormally
warm temperatures will be in place across the area due to ridging
building in from the south. These anonymously warm temperatures
continue through Friday. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees above
normal on both Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday and beyond, the pattern becomes more active as a deep
trough moves across the western U.S. Models are still not in the
best agreement on timing and impacts further downstream across our
region. Confidence is moderate to high that at some point a
system, or multiple systems, will move across our area and gives
more rainfall chances. However, it`s hard to pinpoint exactly when
that may be. As of now, the best chance appears to be Friday
night into Saturday. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions continue this TAF cycle. Winds will become
southwesterly and gusty late morning tomorrow at TYS and CHA.
Increasing clouds and very low rain chances are expected tomorrow
late afternoon and early evening at TYS and TRI. Rain chances are
higher beyond this timeframe.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             42  73  58  77 /   0   0  50  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  39  70  56  73 /  10  10  60  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       39  67  54  71 /  10  10  70  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              35  64  49  65 /  10  10  70  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...McD