932
FXUS64 KMRX 021125
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
625 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 620 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

- Scattered showers will return tonight and continue through the
  day on Sunday with isolated thunderstorms possible in the
  afternoon. The greatest coverage will be along and west of
  interstate 75. There is a low probability that the Sunday
  afternoon storms could produce pea size hail.

- The highest peaks of the mountains above 5000 feet may receive
  some wintry mix of precipitation Sunday evening, but no impacts
  expected.

- Dry weather and a warming trend will return next week with high
  pressure in control. Another low pressure system will bring rain
  chances by Friday afternoon and next Saturday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 AM EDT Sun Nov 2 2025

Upper-level trough is moving across the area this morning with
scattered rain showers across Middle Tennessee and a few light
sprinkles beginning to arrive across East Tennessee. These will be
most common west of I-75 tonight and Sunday with low precipitation
chances across northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. Not
everyone will see rain, and even those area that do will likely
only observe light amounts of around 0.1 inch or less with up to
around 0.25 inch across far western portions of the forecast area
near the Cumberland Plateau.

Behind this departing system, drier air begins to arrive on Monday
with high pressure keeping our area dry and mostly clear through
later next week. A warming trend will commence throughout the week
as heights and ridging increase ahead of another upper-level
trough across the northern Great Plains. This trough will bring an
associated cold front to the region late this upcoming Friday into
Saturday when rain chances increase once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

Off and on showers are expected to continue around CHA and TYS
with CHA a lot more likely to see reductions to MVFR. Greater intensity
of showers and even potential for embedded thunder are expected
around CHA during the afternoon hours. TRI will likely stay dry,
but some light rain is possible. Winds will be light and variable
throughout the day with ceilings around 5,000 to 10,000 feet
outside of rain. Heading into tonight, dry weather will return,
along with a chance of fog at all 3 sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             60  41  64  41 /  70  30   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  61  40  62  40 /  20  10   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       60  39  62  37 /  40  10   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              61  36  61  35 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION...BW