455
FXUS64 KMRX 082329
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
629 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

- Light precipitation continues across northeast Tennessee and
southwest Virginia. Additional minor accumulations of snowfall will
be possible into the early evening hours in the higher elevations.

- Cold morning temperatures expected over the upcoming weekend with
sub-freezing temperatures likely area-wide and wind chills in the
teens for parts of northeast TN and southwest VA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Currently light precipitation is still ongoing across northeast
Tennessee and southwest Virginia. The majority of this precipitation
is coming down as very cold rain, but a few web cameras and surface
observations are showing that temperatures are cold enough that
light flurries are mixed in with the rain. Not expecting very much
more snow for the rest of today, but some of the peaks of the East
Tennessee mountains could pick up almost another inch or so before
this shortwave finally exits the region heading into tonight. Will
maintain the Winter Weather Advisory mainly due to some poor driving
conditions as the locations where it is snowing is also showing low
visibilities and likely slick spots on the roads.

Heading into tomorrow we should be a bit warmer with some breaks in
the clouds expected under generally zonal flow allowing the sun to
shine down at times. We`ll climb above the 50 degree mark for most
places on Wednesday as surface winds turn more southerly in addition
to the sun still making it`s way through breaks in the clouds.

Next weather system is expected to move in towards the end of the
work week as a low spins through the Great Lakes Region and drags
along a cold front. The air coming in from this system is more of a
continental air mass and the moisture is therefore fairly limited.
So the best chances to see precipitation will likely be in the
higher terrain where cold temperatures combine with orographic lift
to squeeze out any water the atmosphere is carrying. For the
majority of the eastern Tennessee Valley the biggest impacts will be
the chilly temperatures behind the front as we head into the
weekend. Probabilistic and deterministic guidance has started to
trend slightly "warmer" with this system as the coldest air might
stay further to our north. It will still be pretty chilly in the
mornings this weekend, but we may be looking at widespread 20`s
instead of widespread teens for overnight lows. With the much drier
air associated with this system we`ll likely get a longer period of
sunshine to try and take the edge off the morning frost.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Main concerns for the TAF period will be potential for MVFR or
brief IFR cigs into the late morning at TRI/TYS. Highest
confidence is at TRI, with lower confidence at TYS where a
scenario of fluctuating low VFR to MVFR cigs seems more likely.
MVFR cigs at CHA will gradually clear to low VFR over the next few
hours. All sites will be VFR with southwesterly winds less than
10kts by late morning into tomorrow afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             28  51  36  56 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  27  47  36  54 /   0   0   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       26  46  36  53 /   0   0   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              24  42  29  49 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Blount
     Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Russell-
     Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99