576
FXUS65 KMSO 262138
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
238 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Mixed precipitation chances Thanksgiving morning.

- Major winter weather impacts: Backdoor front, strong winds, much
  colder with widespread snow for Black Friday.


Warmer air aloft will continue to advect into the region through
this evening and into the overnight. As snow levels rise from
south to north, precipitation in the form of snow will begin to
melt below 5,000 ft MSL. Persisting valley cold pools may remain
strong enough for melted precipitation to become freezing rain
especially in areas south of US-2 through Thursday afternoon.
While total accumulations of both ice and snow will remain rather
light, even a small amount of ice or snow falling on cold ground
surfaces could create slick roadways. Areas north of US-2 have the
highest chance to see all precipitation remain as snow even in
valley locations.

All attention turns toward a much more impactful storm Thursday
night into Friday as the coldest temperatures of the season, so
far, begin to work their way south and west across the
Continental Divide with the arrival of a sharp, yet modified
Arctic airmass.

The main concerns from this weather event will be the sudden drop
in temperatures (10-15 degrees) and associated gusty winds (up to
40 mph) in many locations which could lead to an abrupt change in
precipitation type back to snow along with the potential for
rapidly freezing roadways especially where precipitation has
fallen on Thursday.

Strong frontogenesis along this "Arctic" boundary along with a
deep moisture profile will support intense mesoscale banding which
could produce bursts of heavy snowfall intensities and
significantly reduced visibilities.

Confidence is highest in the most significant impacts being along
and near the divide including Glacier National Park, Marias Pass,
the Seeley/Swan region, and Powell, Granite, Silver Bow, and Deer
Lodge Counties (where Winter Storm Watches have been issued) with
reduced confidence in the arrival of the bitter cold and heavy
snow as you head west.

Through the rest of the weekend and into next week, anticipate
cold, though mostly dry, conditions as the storm system departs
leaving the Northern Rockies in north-northwesterly flow. Slight
chances for snow will continue under this pattern.


&&

.AVIATION...Mountain obscurations will continue with low-mid cloud
cover in place, ceilings lowering again through the night.
Another round of light precipitation likely overnight through
27/1700z. Rain may mix in and or become the predominant
precipitation type through Thursday evening with freezing and snow
levels rising to and above 5,000 ft MSL. Freezing rain with low
potential for pavement accumulation, but higher potential for
structural accumulation, is possible at KMSO, KHRF. Anticipate
widespread MVFR/IFR weather conditions across the entire airspace
from Thursday into Friday.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Wednesday for
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Flathead/Mission Valleys...
     Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Lower Clark Fork Region...
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

     Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
     afternoon for West Glacier Region.

ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Clearwater Mountains...Southern Clearwater Mountains.

&&

$$