862
FXUS66 KMTR 152210
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
210 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 107 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

 - Light rain spreading across the region from south to north
   today. Highest totals from Monterey Bay southward, less than an
   inch further north.

 - Next system on track for late Sunday with a strong cold front
   and a period of moderate-to-heavy rain overnight into Monday
   morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms Monday morning.

 - Drier Tuesday with chilly temperatures through the rest of the
   week. Next rain chance Thursday, details uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 107 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
(This evening through Sunday)

Light rain spreading over the region from the southeast will
continue through this evening. This is a result of wrap around
moisture from the same surface low which brought us the heavier
rain Friday. This surface low, currently centered around the
Channel Islands, will gradually drift northeastward through
tonight and Sunday morning. No major winds are anticipated, as all
of the stronger jet energy remains focused further south. All-in-
all today is just a nice, calm, stratiform rain day. Rain totals
so far have been light, but appreciable for points further south
where rain has been ongoing since early this morning. As of
writing, about 0.7" near Fort Hunter Liggett, 0.25-0.5" up the Big
Sur coast, and a few hundredths to a tenth around Monterey Bay.
These totals will tick up as the rain continues this evening.
Overall by Sunday morning we can expect 1-2" along the Big Sur
coast, about an inch in the vicinity of Monterey Bay, southern
Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz mtns, 0.5-0.75" across the Bay Area,
and ranging from about 0.25-0.75" across the North Bay.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 107 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
(Sunday night through next Friday)

We don`t really get much of a break on Sunday before the next
system moves into play. Southerly winds will begin to increase
late Sunday afternoon ahead of a cold front surge southeast
associated with a modest surface low progged to move into the PNW.
Overall presentation of the associated rainfall will likely mimics
this past Friday`s system in terms of amounts, with the typical
terrain-enhanced spots picking up more. The heaviest rainfall
looks to occur during the overnight hours into Monday morning
before sunrise, when FROPA occurs. Totals on the order of
0.75-1.00" can be expected across lower elevations, while higher
elevations of the North Bay and coastal ranges may see up to 2".
Locally up to 3" in favored areas of the Santa Cruz mtns and Big
Sur coast. There is also a slight chance for thunderstorms during
this overnight period as the cold front moves through (embedded
thunderstorms), as well as into Monday afternoon in the post-
frontal environment (scattered/isolated thunderstorms). Potential
threats around any thunderstorms that do develop include locally
gusty winds to 45 mph and a few lightning strikes.

Once this system moves out, the story turns to chilly
temperatures. We aren`t seeing any frost/freeze as it stands now,
but Monday and beyond looks like highs in the 50s and morning
lows in the 40s across the board through much of the week. Next
rain maker slated for Thursday, but a bit of uncertainty is
tamping down confidence in a detailed forecast at this juncture.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1020 AM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR will eventually yield to poor flying conditions over the next
24 to 30 hours. -RA is anticipated at just about all terminals
during this time period. Slick runways, MVFR visibility and
ceilings are expected to be the main impacts. Intermittent periods
of 2-3 hours without -RA are probable, but uncertainty precludes
getting this hyper-specific in the TAF. Confidence is high that
between 15-17Z Sunday, there will be a break in -RA ahead of the
next storm system slated to increase winds and precip chances
Sunday afternoon and evening.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with variable winds. -RA and cigs
are anticipated around 22Z, though confidence in timing is low to
medium. By 00Z, VFR cigs are highly probable with -RA resulting in
reduced visibility. While southerly winds are forecast, speeds are
anticipated to remain largely below 10 knots. MVFR cigs and
visibility are forecast a few hours after -RA beings and persist
through a good portion of the TAF cycle. As noted above,
intermittent breaks in -RA are possible, but the most prolonged
period of precip-free conditions appears to be at or after 15Z
Sunday. SHRA INFOV the terminals is anticipated by 21Z Sunday,
with additional SHRA beyond the 30 hour TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Cigs around FL045 are anticipated around
22Z with cigs below FL040 by 00Z. Cigs are probable to persist
through the entire 30 hour period.

Monterey Bay Terminals...-RA has arrived at KMRY and should
arrive at KSNS soon. Cigs continue to lower with variable winds
eventually becoming easterly. -RA should support deteriorating
cigs through this afternoon and evening. Around 4Z/5Z, there is
likely to be a 5-6 hour window of precip-free conditions before
rain returns just before sunrise Sunday. This round of -RA will
last through mid-morning Sunday. MVFR cigs are forecast to
prevail, though there`s a low chance for IFR at KMRY. After the
mid-morning lull in -RA, the next opportunity (for -RA) is not
anticipated until after 18Z Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 943 AM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

Widespread rain showers are anticipated today, with hazardous
boating conditions, especially for outer waters near and north  of
Pigeon Point. Sunday will bring moderate to fresh north to NW
winds, moderate seas up to 8 feet, and a rain showers. A storm
will bring strong to near gale force northerly winds Sunday night,
quickly building very rough seas by Monday morning. Conditions
will gradually improve Tuesday into Wednesday. Very high west-
northwesterly swell and hazardous seas return late next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Bain
MARINE...Bain

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