051
FXUS66 KMTR 122050
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1250 PM PST Wed Nov 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1249 PM PST Wed Nov 12 2025

 - Moderate to heavy rain and a slight chance for thunderstorms late
   tonight through Thursday

 - Strong southerly wind gusts up to 50-60 mph may cause property
   damage, downed tree limbs, and difficult travel conditions

 - Cool and unsettled weather Friday and through the weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1249 PM PST Wed Nov 12 2025
(This evening through Thursday)

Light, pre-frontal rain is falling in the higher terrain of the
North Bay and the Santa Cruz Mountains due to orographic lift as
southerly winds increase ahead of the moderate atmospheric river.
This rain will begin to fall over the Santa Lucia Range by this
afternoon as the deeper moisture plume shifts southward. Rain will
persist in these areas through tonight ahead of the main frontal
band forecast to move into the North Bay around 4 AM Thursday
morning. Rain will move through the heart of the Bay Area from 4 AM
through 10 AM Thursday with a slight chance of thunderstorms,
greatly impacting the morning commute. For those commuting in the
morning, be prepared for rain and consider allowing extra time for
your commute. Rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms will
continue to progress to the south and inland with precipitation
increasing in the Santa Cruz Mountains and areas of the South Bay by
7 AM through 1 PM Thursday. For the Central Coast, the main rain
band is currently forecast to move through the region during the
early to mid afternoon. Rainfall totals through Thursday afternoon
are as such; 2"-4" with isolated up to 5" in the coastal ranges of
the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast, 1"-2.5" in the North
Bay Valleys, 1"-1.5" around the San Francisco Bay Shoreline
(including the City), and 0.5"-1.25" elsewhere across the region.
There is the potential for less rainfall within the typically rain
shadowed valleys (perhaps significantly less rainfall). There also
remains a slight chance for thunderstorms late tonight into Thursday
morning along and in wake of the frontal boundary.

South to southeast winds will begin to increase late this evening
and into early Thursday morning, strongest just ahead of the main
frontal boundary. From the previous forecaster: "The strongest winds
will be along our coastline, especially from the North Bay Coast,
including the Marin Hills, down the San Francisco Peninsula. Here we
can expected to see wind gusts reaching 55 to 60 miles per hour,
with gusts up to 70 mph possible at favored coastal and higher
terrain locations. A High Wind Warning will go into effect from 10
PM tonight through 10 AM Thursday morning. Elsewhere a Wind Advisory
remains in effect from 10 PM tonight through 10 AM Thursday morning
15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph." The Wind Advisory/High Wind
Warning very well may need to be extended out in time as we have
seen a later arrival of the boundary in most recent model runs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1249 PM PST Wed Nov 12 2025
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)

Post-frontal rain showers will linger through Thursday night and
into Saturday, especially across the Central Coast. This is as a
mid/upper level trough meanders over southern California through
Saturday, and potentially into the rest of the weekend. There after,
the ensemble guidance indicates either weak troughing or zonal flow
which would lead to continued unsettled weather and cooler
temperatures region wide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 924 AM PST Wed Nov 12 2025

Currently VFR at all terminals with the exception of SJC which has a
high-end MVFR ceiling. Low-end VFR ceilings will prevail today. Rain
showers are approaching the region from the southwest, so these can
be expected to make a run at the terminals this afternoon. Rain
showers will increase in coverage and intensity overnight with the
cold frontal passage. Southerly winds will increase ahead of the
cold front, becoming the strongest and gustiest during the
passage. An embedded thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but
confidence is too low in timing and location to include in the
TAF. No definitive low-level wind shear, but bumpy conditions can
be expected. During the time of heaviest rainfall, MVFR conditions
can be expected to prevail with further deterioration possible.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with southerly flow. Low-end VFR
ceilings will prevail today. Southerly winds will increase through
the day, becoming gusty this afternoon. Rain showers are expected by
mid-afternoon, increasing in coverage and intensity overnight with
moderate rain expected by mid-morning. Conditions improve towards
the end of the 30 hour TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR and calm at MRY and VFR with
moderate drainage flow at SNS. Low-end VFR ceilings will prevail
today. Southerly winds will increase through the day, becoming
gusty this afternoon. Rain will approach the terminals towards the
end of the TAF period with the heaviest rainfall for the terminals
expected in the next TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 903 AM PST Wed Nov 12 2025

Widespread hazardous marine conditions will develop this afternoon
with conditions deteriorating through tomorrow morning. Rain
showers this afternoon will increase in coverage and intensity
tonight into tomorrow morning with embedded thunderstorms
possible. Widespread gale force gusts are expected tonight through
tomorrow morning with storm force gusts expected for the northern
waters. Winds will quickly diminish Thursday night. Moderate seas
today will build to become rough for the inner waters and very
rough for the outer waters Thursday through Friday. Seas abate to
become moderate by Saturday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 414 AM PST Wed Nov 12 2025

Wave bulletins recently are showing potential for hazardous surf
conditions developing late to very late Thursday night and Friday.
However, currently it`s a low confidence forecast as to whether
we`ll reach beach hazard criteria or possibly high surf advisory
criteria. Complicating the forecast is in situ rapidly deepening
low pressure development 400 miles northwest of San Francisco that
has itself rapidly evolved just since the weekend, and part of
potentially hazardous surf may be related to the local wind field
in the vicinity of the storm developing in the nearest term. Wave
model forecasts also currently show much of the wave energy over
the offshore waters passing by to our west late this week which
may help mitigate coastal hazards. Please stay tuned to further
updates.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Thursday
     for CAZ006-502-505-509.

     Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday afternoon through Friday
     evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

     Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Thursday for
     CAZ503-504-506-508-510-512>518-528>530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60
     NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PST Thursday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Thursday for Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Reyes to Pigeon
     Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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