456
FXUS66 KMTR 061134
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
434 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 416 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026

 - Cooler temperatures set in today and continue into the
   beginning of next week

 - Chance for light rain late Monday into early Tuesday

 - Warmer temperatures for the second half of next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 212 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026
(Today and tonight)

Strong thermal ridging aloft yesterday will gradually cool through
today and Sunday with further cooling occuring especially in the
lower levels of the atmosphere early next week. For today it will
feel noticeably less warm/hot inland with daytime highs near normal
for June 6th with 70s to around 80F inland. Nearest the coast and
bays daytime highs will reach the upper 50s and 60s. Forecast lows
are in the 40s to mid 50s for tonight. A few inland locations e.g.
the Eastern Santa Clara Hills and the southern interior of Monterey
and San Benito counties may reach the upper 30s tonight.

Northerly and onshore surface pressure gradients and winds continue,
at 2 am ACV-SFO is 7.0 mb and SFO-SAC is 3.9 mb. Gusty northwest
winds over the coastal waters continue to produce cold water
upwelling. Despite the high June sun angle and recent stratus free
sky, sea surface temps in our coastal waters are currently in the
lower to mid 50s, approx 1F to 2F below June normals.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 212 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026
(Sunday through Friday)

Expect additional northwest winds, clear, dry conditions along
with a continuation of cooling aloft Sunday. Daytime highs will
be comfortable inland with 70s to 80F, near normal on Sunday.
Daytime highs nearest the coast and bays will be in the upper 50s
and 60s.

In the early Thursday morning June 4th AFD it was mentioned the
recent GFS and to some extent the ECMWF have been showing a trough
arriving with some measurable rainfall early next week. This remains
true, however forecast precipitation amounts have since continued
to vary in our forecast area with our forecast area located on the
southern edge of measurable rainfall/drizzle w/r/t this incoming
system. A plume of water vapor is moving across the Pacific coupled
to low pressure/frontal development, the development supported by
a strong late season meridional temperature gradient. The low/front
are moving along a gradient of warmer to cooler sea surface
temperature anomalies near the ongoing negative (cool) phase
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). With strong W-NW jet stream
winds behind this low the low/front will move rapidly toward the
Pacific Northwest and northern California early next week. Surface
to lower level cool air advection will push into precipitable
water ~ 1.50" per recent GFS as it moves across our area later
Monday, Monday night and Tuesday morning. Our current official
forecast is for < 0.10" mainly North Bay to parts of the East Bay,
but this bears watching for potentially greater areal coverage and
amounts of rain/drizzle. Rain is not common in June, it`s normally
the 4th driest month of the year in our area. 15 years ago in June
2011 (4th and 28th) e.g. produced much above June normal rainfall
here, thus it can happen but it`s a rare day for rain in June. The
PDO was negative in 2011 and it was La Nina in the equatorial Pacific.
At the very least keep in mind there`s a chance of rain/drizzle here
in our area early next week. A night-time arrival of clouds and
frontal precipitation may benefit from radiative cooling above cloud
tops furthering upward vertical motion.

Dry weather then returns to our forecast area mid to late week.
Recent forecast model output has been indicating a strengthening
500 mb ridge generally to our northwest, along with a late week
surface southerly wind reversal possibly developing. This means
that compressional warming with the 500 mb ridge will be present,
but so will recently chilled (upwelling) sea surface temps for
the potential of natural air conditioning as an offset to warm/hot
temperatures mid to late next week, at least nearest the coast.
Please stay tuned to further updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 416 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR expected to prevail through the forecast period for North Bay,
Bay Area and South Bay terminals with medium to high confidence.
Expect breezy to gusty onshore flow to develop this afternoon and
continue into the evening hours.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast
period with westerly wind gusts exceeding 25kts by mid-morning and
persisting through the evening hours with gusts expected to exceed
30kts by mid-afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO but with lighter west winds.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR cigs are expected to lift by mid-
morning with gusty onshore flow developing in the afternoon and
continuing through sunset. MVFR cigs expected to develop after
sunset and continue through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 416 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Gale force gusts have developed across the outer waters and the
coastal jet region of Point Reyes with Point Sur coastal jet
region expected to reach gale force by sunrise today. Gale force
gusts will expand to all inner waters this morning into the
afternoon. Expect very rough seas across the outer waters and
rough seas over the inner waters with hazardous conditions for
small craft through the remainder of the weekend. However,
conditions do begin to improve Sunday with moderate seas and fresh
northwesterly breezes for the beginning of next week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 351 AM PDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through 9 AM Saturday for
Pacific Coast beaches. Long period southwesterly swell of 17-18
seconds at 3 feet will result in an increased risk of sneaker
waves and strong rip currents, especially at southwest facing
beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized
beach erosion can be expected. Sneaker waves can sweep across the
shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks,
jetties, and beaches. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and
other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid
hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor
local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 AM PDT this morning for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N
     of Bay Bridge.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-
     60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this evening for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Canepa
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea