114
FXUS66 KMTR 171142
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
442 AM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 AM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Quiet weather continues with a slight warmup today and tomorrow,
with temperatures gradually falling back to near normal or slightly
below normal for the end of the week and weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Temperatures warm to slightly above normal today and tomorrow with
progressive upper level shortwave ridging across our area today. Very
dry air above the marine layer remains in place helping to limit low
stratus over our coastal areas, with bright sunshine inland. As the
upper ridging shifts east, zonal flow sets up across our area late
tonight when the marine layer deepens with more widespread coastal
low marine layer stratus expected to return overnight into early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 305 AM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Primarily zonal upper flow across our area on Wednesday will result
in the warmest day of the week before a deepening trough leads to
height falls, cooler temperatures and a more robust marine layer
intruding farther inland for Thursday and beyond. Temperatures will
cool back down to seasonal averages or slightly below. The upper low
over the Pacific Northwest will gradually shift inland on Friday
into the weekend. Gusty onshore flow for the end of the week and
weekend will lead to winds up to 40 MPH at times for higher
elevations, passes and gaps on Saturday, easing Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 442 AM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Widespread VFR continues across the CWA. Night Fog shows a small
patch of clouds in the northern Monterey Bay but confidence is low
that it will impact MRY and SNS this morning. VFR conditions persist
through much of the day before CIGs start to build in again late
this evening into the overnight hours. Highest confidence in IFR
CIGs at HAF, MRY, and SNS with moderate confidence in IFR CIGs
reaching OAK tonight. Guidance does show some potential for MVFR
conditions to reach SFO after 09Z but confidence remains low in this
scenario. Winds remain onshore (southwest to northwest) through the
forecast period with breezy winds during the afternoon/evening
easing and becoming light/variable overnight.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Not anticipating
stratus to develop this morning but some potential exists for
stratus to develop tonight. LAMP guidance indicates stratus
potential increases from 09Z to 17Z with any CIGs that do develop
likely to be MVFR. For now, leaned more towards high resolution
guidance offered by the HRRR which suggests stratus will fill in
through the Golden Gate Gap and over OAK but not reach SFO. Gusts
are expected to peak around 33 knots during the afternoon/evening at
SFO today before winds ease overnight into tomorrow.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR becoming IFR tonight into tomorrow
morning. Highest confidence in IFR CIGs moving in between 06Z-08Z
tonight with stratus reaching MRY first then SNS second. CIGs are
likely to persist through mid to late morning before clearing
tomorrow afternoon. Moderate west to northwest winds are expected
this afternoon and evening before winds ease and shift slightly
southwesterly overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1028 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Gusty northwest winds continue across most of the waters along
with moderate to rough seas. These conditions look to last
through the week and into the weekend with slightly increased
swell heights. Gale force gusts will occur near the coastal jet
regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur in the afternoons and look to
linger into the evenings for much of the forecast.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea