895
FXUS66 KMTR 310549
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1049 PM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1030 PM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026

 - Minor to moderate coastal flooding at high tide for Bayshore
   and Pacific Coast locations through the weekend

 - Seasonal to slightly below seasonal temperatures through the
   extended forecast

 - Potential for light rain Saturday and again next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1048 PM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026
(Tonight through Sunday)

Lots of talk about Saturday`s sensible weather the last few days
and it`s been a roller coaster. A few days ago it looked somewhat
wet for the Central Coast Saturday afternoon/evening. Then those
chances eased and actually shifted northward to the Bay Area/N
Bay. The latest forecast has actually eased precip chances
Saturday afternoon/evening everywhere in the CWA. In other words,
much more optimistic if you have any outdoor plans Saturday
afternoon/evening. Let`s get into the details: the main weather
players for the short term continue to be an upper low drifting
slowly southward near the PacNW, an associated upper level trough
south of the low inch its way toward the West Coast, and a
moisture surge over the EPac (better surge heading into SoCal).
Over the next 12-24 hours, the upstream upper low drifts farther
south as the upper trough moves eastward and ultimately inland in
CA. At the surface, a weak offshore cold front will follow the
upper trough and move NW to SE Saturday afternoon/evening through
the region. For the Central Coast, they`ll be on the northern
fringe of the SoCal surge so a few showers are possible during
the day across the far interior. Bay Area and North Bay start the
day dry and remain dry well into the afternoon and early evening.
There after, light rain chances increase over the North Bay
spreading southward Saturday night into Sunday. As the front moves
inland it begins to fade and so do the precip chances. A few
showers linger early Sunday, but Sunday afternoon looks much
drier. All in all, outdoor Halloween activities look promising
with only a few showers moving into the North Bay. Better precip
chances arrive Saturday night. Outside of precip chances,
temperatures this weekend look seasonably cold with highs mainly
in the 60s.

This is still valid - A combination of high astronomical tides
and surge from thermal expansion and low pressure effects brings the
risk of minor coastal flooding along the Bayshore at the San Pablo,
San Francisco, and Monterey Bays, and the Pacific coast, at high
tide today. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is
expected to be 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 3:44 PM, and
1.0 feet above normal (6.8 ft MLLW) at 3:59 PM Sunday, including
around 1.5 ft of surge residual." The Coastal Flood Advisory drops
off after high tide on Saturday for the Pacific Coast but remains
in effect through Sunday for bayshore locations along the San
Pablo, San Francisco, and Monterey Bays.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1048 PM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026
(Sunday night through next Friday)

Weak upper level ridging Sunday night into Monday with dry weather
and slightly warmer temperatures. There after the forecast looks
unsettled with rain chances returning. The upper ridge moves
inland as another upper low approaches from the west. Next round
of rain returns Monday night into Tuesday and lingers into
Wednesday. By no means any big or notable storms, but precip
chances nonetheless through mid week. Dry weather and warmer
weather returns Friday and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 PM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Currently VFR with high clouds streaming into the Bay Area and low
clouds across the Central Coast. High confidence in VFR and diurnal
winds prevailing through the 24 hour TAF period. Beyond that, rain
shower chances increase with the best chances between 06Z and 12Z.
Ceilings and visibilities will briefly lower if a rain shower passes
directly over a terminal.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. High confidence
in VFR and westerly flow prevailing through the TAF period, the
exception is towards the end of the TAF period when rain shower
chances increase. If a rain shower passes directly over the
terminal, ceiling and visibility may briefly lower below VFR.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with southerly flow at MRY
and VFR with easterly flow at SNS. High confidence in VFR and
diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period; however, low-end
VFR ceilings will likely prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 913 PM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Gentle to fresh northerly breezes prevail over the coastal waters
as a weak cold front approaches from the north. These conditions
will persist with moderate seas into early next week. Mid-week,
wind driven seas build to rough across the outer waters. A long
period southwesterly swell persists through the weekend and
combines with a long period northwest swell early next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ006-506-508-
     529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ505-509.

PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...MM

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